Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The 11% in 2021 was based on apartments

The 22% is likely based more on houses sold. In our current supply constrained environment there is always more money to be made selling houses than apartments, as houses are

1) cheaper to build and

2) sell for more than apartments.

Item 2 will always be the case, but #1 is a sign if serious dysfunction in this country that apartment building costs so much more per unit even after land costs are considered. Apartment building should scale such that price per unit reduces as you build up (to a certain height), that scale doesn't appear to exist in ireland like it does everywhere else.

Which is why I am arguing that the government should be all over this and ramping up and where there is demand using a model "build not for profit" for people who cannot afford a house, who are on welfare and who are coming in from war torn countries etc. Why should we pay X + the current greedy developers margin when we don't have too and what's to stop these companies creating the modular homes from finishing it off themselves and going directly to the EA what value add is the developer actually bringing in to the equation for their slice of the pie?

I have agreed that they could start their own modular home business and make a profit but its completely different to what they have been doing and my argument holds why not just go do something else that is more profitable if you going to completely change the way your working and trying to make it look like I don't understand what your talking about is just a side show for your own lack of understanding

If its Cluid then none of those employees have a hope.

To be honest from experience dealing with cluid and their antisocial tenants are a nightmare, cant imagine many of those working adjacent would want to live there too much now if its a cluid owned building.

That is my motto now :)

ANd then you have people wondering why i decided to retire 2 decades before im supposed to. Better being a tax taker at this point in my life than a tax payer. Pretty sure im not the only one. Ive taken it to the extreme and gone on the scratch, but I know lots and lots of people who just arent bothered doing overtime when asked anymore.

Or getting Planning permission isnt viable.

Is the decline in total construction or just housing? Because I suspect it’s agricultural and office space where construction has decreased with housing increasing.

it doesn’t mean an increase in margins (or gouging as you put it. It just means that there is a different mix of construction that have different profit margins.

"Cost-based" rental may be of help for this middle group. This is where a housing association buys a property but calculates rent on the basis of cost rather than either subsidy, in the case of social housing, or profit, in the case of private rentals. Although more expensive than traditional social housing, the accommodation is at least secure because it is not owned by a private landlord and, as previously mentioned, it is cheaper than inflated private rents.

If the govt were really serious about solving the housing crisis, it could change planning legislation to develop modular homes at scale, and quickly.

Then invest in companies with skill and experience to build the homes and fund the build entirely with govt money.

Bring the homes to market as mixed developments.

Some homes for sale, some social to rent, some part ownership etc. So we dont create another Ballymun and we continue to encourage mixed developments.

The rest of the construction industry could then refocus on building private developments only, with part 5 included, and then watch the house prices come down as the Govt is no longer suspending the floor of the market through excessive social housing provision.

Its the prices coming down part that makes me think the above approach will never happen.

What is the "cost" in cost rental?

The term is everywhere but never with an explanation of which cost its based on. Is it the capital cost? Maintenance cost? Finance cost? Etc

All would lead to wildly different levels of rent.

If its capital cost of the house then you are basically paying a mortgage but getting 0, same as in private sector.

If its cost of maintenance then its arguably worse than social housing which is means tested % of your income as rent.

You must remember Singapore just seized the land day one to build…can’t see that happening here whether it be Irish law or EU law.

Viena’s cost rental has cheaper rents because of the length of time they have adopted the policy. A cost rental of 2k a month might sound crazy now but in 10 or 20 years time might be quite cheap. The toughest part in getting the model in place is having a big enough portfolio of properties that generate sufficient cash flow to finance a constant build of new housing stock. It’s not something that can happen overnight.

I agree it’s should be done but the results are not seen overnight and because governments are elected for a specific period they won’t get votes for it.

In an ideal world all political parties would agree a strategic housing program that they would all adopt and as you say it leave the state in a much better position for our children or grandchildren. But that won’t happen because of political football. It’s a lot easier to tear something down than it is to build. Maybe if politicians pension were someway linked to long term goals we may see it happening.

Yes. agree with all points.

I just dont see a shift in irish policy, sadly.

I asked the current junior minister for housing on my door step in the run up to the last election, he brushed it off saying people wouldn't support it

Whether he was referring to general population or what he would consider the trad Fg voter. I'm not sure

I find this focus weird. Is it just because of covid19? When I was growing up in the nineties, fights around town and in nightclubs were pretty common.

Murder statistics https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/murder-homicide-rate They are way down. Is all the complaining people on the internet afraid of their shadow?