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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...happy days, more problems for the financial sector so......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Irish banks in good shape, they paid off TLTRO loans early with plenty left in reserve. I think the vast majority is due in June sometime unless it has been extended.

    tltro.jpg


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...yup, irish banks not looking too bad at all, but 'markets dont occur in a vacuum'! expect some issues globally!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    He is right, it was Putin and the CCP communists who did it.



    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    I get regular emails from Meta about job postings, it was slim for a while, now it is packed to the rafters.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    No mention here about the employment figures released today or about wage inflation despite being in the news. The economy is still strong despite rate hikes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Yep it is looking like a few more rate hikes will happen in the US. As you say given the impact up to now has been low so the risk from hiking more shouldn't be so great.



  • Posts: 24,009 Ari Calm Vigilante


    Yeah, more or less everyone who is able and willing to work has a job, so that’s all generally good on the employment front.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....ah shur, nothing to be worrying about really, banks will be bailed out if needs be!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    The McWilliams podcast recently was very eye opening on the current actions of the fed and the American economy overall. He didn't paint a very nice picture of the coming few years though.

    Pinch of salt of course.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    mcwilliams isnt the only one heavily criticizing central banks, you can see theres a widescale deep misunderstanding in regards inflation, and ultimately how to deal with it, its disturbing to see how lost central banks are.....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Sounds like quite a bit of cash moving back east.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    "A global recession is on the horizon"

    How long is this horizon?

    I personally forsee a recession in the future, followed by economic growth.

    I'm afraid I'll be charging you money to hear what happens after that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,208 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    The thing about the horizon is that you never actually get there...

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    "Gross domestic product has decreased significantly more than expected following a contraction of 15.7% in multinational-dominated sectors.


    New findings from the Central Statistics Office found that GDP fell by 4.6% in the first three months of 2023, with Gross National Product - which excludes multinational profits and repatriations - falling even more sharply by 8%."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,433 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    We don't use GDP to accurately measure real economic performance, we use GNI*, which shows baseline domestic activity at 2.7% growth.

    The GDP figure on it's own shows what a nonsense it itself is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,530 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    DMW gets on my tits. He's so smug. 😁 Articulate, intelligent, but smug. He is successful because he was the first celebrity economist in Ireland and could feast of the housing crisis here since the Celtic tiger from his ivory tower. 😁😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,530 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    I think we do need a lot more people who are articulate, intelligent, witty in Irish public life.

    I think he's good enough at what he does. But he has the whole space to himself. It's ridiculous.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    True, however GDP is probably more relevant when it comes to state revenues as MNCs corporate taxes that arent part of the "real" irish economy are still paid here at the end of the day. So a decline in MNC exports and profits means less cash for Ireland Inc.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,208 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    He really needs to be held to the fire over the bank guarantee but he never will be.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ..there is an element of truth in regards deficit spending, we ve been largely funding our economies from financial sector created money, i.e. credit, and its turning out to be an absolute disaster, the only way to counteract this is by increasing public spending, i.e. money creation via deficits.....

    ...but since we want to maintain financial sector control and power, this wont be happening anytime soon, if ever, so......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    It has nothing to do with financial sector control and power. We have practically zero unemployment at the moment and as a result have high inflation not because of QE but because of the fiscal spending. Unemployment won’t get any lower because there is an element of people that play the system rather than work.

    The last thing that is needed at the moment is more fiscal spending if anything they need to cut back on spending and put money aside for a rainy day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    OPEC to cut production in 2024 by 1.5 million barrels / day. Also in July Saudi will voluntarily cut 1 million / day which may be extended.

    It looks like they are expecting quite a slowdown coming shortly

    opec.png


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,017 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Are you sure it’s nothing to do with QE? Surely after all the printing the dollar and Euro are way overvalued.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    QE has been around 10 years and didn’t produce inflation in the CPI because the money never got out into the wider economy instead it lead to asset inflation because the money remained mainly Witt he finance sector. it was only when QE was accompanied by fiscal spending that money got out into the real economy and generated inflation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    The rates of money being pumped in went off the scales during covid so I don't think you can say QE had no effect on inflation frankly. The likes of the FED buying up MBS led to asset inflation which caused people to feel richer and hence spend more than they otherwise would have done.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I also felt the current high inflation must be, at least partly, caused by QE.

    However, I put that point to a senior economics professor, who stated the 2021-2023 high inflation is not purely due to QE.

    He did agree that QE lead to inflation in asset prices, and other unwanted outcomes in financial markets.


    He has a point, the inflation started in late 2021, long after QE started.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    QE did cause asset inflation no one is denying that however it’s also worth nothing that people feeling richer was less about QE or market fundamentals and was more due to a younger generation being sucked into one of the biggest pump and dump schemes in history. Even all the central banks issued warnings that the markets had no correlation to the real economy.

    At the end of the day QE is nothing more than an asset swap where long term money (bonds) are converted into short term money….it Doesn’t increase the money in circulation. The only time it increases is when new debt is issued which is exactly what happened during Covid along with governments then spending that extra money and it getting out into the wider economy



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,590 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Ah shure the multinationals are doing great. Everyone else must be fine. It all filters down dont ya know.



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