Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

manniot2 · 05-05-2023 08:32AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120557424#Comment_120557424

I think we are talking about 2 different things here. I am referring to "buyers regret" when buying something unsuitable (because there are no rental options) and then finding it very hard to move on (not due to financials, but the logistical nightmare that is buying and selling at the same time). I am in this situation myself and although I dont have any financial regrets, I am rather stuck without moving the family to a rental for what could be a few years.

DownByTheGarden · 05-05-2023 09:03AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120557455#Comment_120557455

You are one of the few i believe.

Most people suffer some sort of buyers remorse, for anything, and then spend a lot of energy convincing themselves, and especially others, that they have done the write thing and have no regrets. for example all of the people who bought EVs lately and cant charge at home so its costing them a fortune.

In your case if you are stepping back and thinking about it as you should, but would you really have been better off not buying when you did and renting now? Most of us wish we had bought something better than when we had bought, otherwise you would bnevr have any such thing as a second time buyer.

Up to a couple of years ago i would have been all for renting and not buying til you settle down. If come to the realization now that if i were to go back again I would buy the most expensive house I could afford. If I could only afford a shed I would buy that. Simply to get out of the rental market that is already down the toilet and headed for the waste pipe into the ocean at this point. I see no good outcome for anyone renting nowadays anymore. It has been let go too far.

GoldFour4 · 05-05-2023 10:57AM

I bought about 18 months ago and have the occasional thought about negative equity in the event of a 20% decline in prices. However- I look at houses the same size as mine in the same area and the typical rent is about double my mortgage. My mortgage is on a 25 year term so obviously this multiple would be higher for a 30/35 year term.

With rent increase caps etc I can’t see much of a move towards much lower rents without a huge supply increase (which is a long way off).

That certainly alleviates any concern in my mind about negative equity. Sure on paper we might not be in a great position for a few years but I’d much rather be in negative equity and be a bit cramped for 5 or so years (in the event of more kids) while the market goes through a cycle rather than be beholden to the rental market and forking over a much higher percentage of my take home pay.

Cyrus · 05-05-2023 01:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120553605#Comment_120553605

if prices fall in what way would you lose out? as long as you fixed in at a low interest rate and can service the mortgage you dont really lose out unless your ambition is to try buy at a low point in the market which isnt really viable for someone looking for somewhere to live.

In any case, someone who may want to potentially trade up in the future, dropping prices are better for them.

rob316 · 05-05-2023 02:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120558098#Comment_120558098

Be worried about equity in your primary residence is like the people who think they are assets. IF your planning on living there for 20/25 years you are going to experience plenty of positive and negative equity periods, it really doesn't matter.

hometruths · 05-05-2023 03:02PM

Clearly Skehan's comments hit a nerve somewhere as he has been factchecked! The Journal have rustled up some experts to rubbish his comments that we need to be wary of the risks of oversupply.

For example:

Ciarán Lynch, the chairman of the Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis, told The Journal. “But when the crash came in 2007-2008, it was caused by overvaluation, not oversupply.”

Nothing to worry about so, as long as you believe current prices do not represent overvaluation.

Hang on a minute, elsewhere he says we are experiencing overvaluation:

Banking Inquiry chairman Ciarán Lynch agreed that there was little risk of an oversupply of housing. “There is an under supply in the Irish market right now which will maintain a current overvaluation in the market until the supply is adjusted to what’s required,” he said.

So there is an overvaluation, but nothing to worry about because that has been caused by undersupply rather than excess demand.

Good to know.

And according to Ronan Lyons we could build 50,000 homes a year and not worry about oversupply:

“All in, the country probably requires an average of between 45,000 and 60,000 homes built every year until mid-century. Technically, if we built 100,000 homes per year, rather than say 50,000, there would be a risk of oversupply,” Lyons said.

TLDR: it's different this time.

https://www.thejournal.ie/is-ireland-risking-an-oversupply-of-housing-6055772-Apr2023/

wassie · 05-05-2023 05:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120557377#Comment_120557377

I think most people who are renting would love the security that ownership brings. 'Low rental options' actually means for many people paying disproportionately high amounts of income on rent. Many are squeezed into shared accomodation as a result. Many fear being handed an eviction notice which could potentially result in homeless.

I've had EAs also tell me in our area that the lack of rentals has meant homeowners are not trading up because they cannot get a short term let and are choosing to sit it out.

hometruths · 05-05-2023 05:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120559761#Comment_120559761

If it is all about security of ownership, how many current ftbers who are renting nice 2 bed apartments, and assuming they like the area, would buy that apartment if they had the opportunity?

or are most would be buyers looking to buy a house rather than an apartment?

Galwayhurl · 05-05-2023 07:29PM

I am completely confused about the market.

It's the time of year that listings ramp up. However, there are a similar nunber of listings (13,500 excluding sites) on Daft right now as were listed back in January, which is the usual lowest point each year. So no increase in months.

What's going on?

J_1980 · 05-05-2023 08:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120560257#Comment_120560257

becaus there are hardly any net sellers (some probates) and people are scared to of moving (going to rental, market running away, hardly any options to buy).

J_1980 · 05-05-2023 08:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120559791#Comment_120559791

Most irish buyers are couples (double income) and only considering houses. House price inflation is far outpacing apartment inflation.

hometruths · 05-05-2023 08:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120560486#Comment_120560486

Anecdotally that's what it seems like but can't find any data on that.

herbalplants · 07-05-2023 09:29AM

What do they have in common? Rent caps. Also corporate rents 20% higher.

https://www.irishtimes.com/property/residential/2023/05/07/its-not-just-dublin-200-people-apply-for-just-one-apartment-in-berlins-broken-rental-market/

Blut2 · 07-05-2023 10:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120564918#Comment_120564918

"average rents about €990 a month for a 79m2/850 sq ft two-bed apartment" is insane value compared to Dublin prices. Its a huge stretch to call that as bad as Dublin, its anywhere from a half to a third the price.

If you listed a livable apartment at the price of the first apartment being mentioned, €1,074 a month for a 3bedroom, you'd get closer to 2000 applicants in Dublin than 200.

herbalplants · 07-05-2023 12:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120565032#Comment_120565032

Yes I noticed that too but "Berliners have incomes lower than the national average. Every second household has an annual income below €16,800 and is entitled to a WBS (residency eligibility) certificate."

J_1980 · 07-05-2023 01:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120565032#Comment_120565032

You’ll never get teh 990 one

Actual rentals are here.

keep in min they count “Zimmer” all rooms, ie 3 Zimmer = 2bed

all those cheap “Tauschwohnung” are only swappable vs other existing tenancies, ie not available for new arrivals.

https://www.immobilienscout24.de/Suche/de/berlin/berlin/wohnung-mieten

Blut2 · 07-05-2023 04:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120565381#Comment_120565381

I don't have government figures to hand but the best I can see on google is showing Dublin median household income as only approx 125% of that Berlin (53k vs 42k).

Which is absolutely a difference, but its nowhere near the 200%-300% that would be required to make the average rental prices really comparable.

timmyntc · 08-05-2023 08:54AM

https://www.businesspost.ie/politics/state-to-recruit-south-african-builders-to-hike-housing-output/

Good old outsourcing making a comeback..

Tell me this - are we still doing self certification of building work?

wassie · 08-05-2023 09:23AM

Generally speaking, not since 2014 with the introduction of the Building Control (Amendment) Regulations 2014.

However owners of new single dwellings, on a single development unit, and domestic extensions can effectively get an exemption by opting-out of the requirements to obtain statutory certificates issued by the Assigned Certifier (must be a Registered Building Surveyor, Registered Architect or Chartered Engineer) and other Ancillary Certifiers.

Im not aware of any of the retrofit schemes & grants that mandate owners to follow the BCAR process as a requirement of funding.

RichardAnd · 08-05-2023 11:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120568715#Comment_120568715

Hmm. Where will the builders themselves live?

herbalplants · 08-05-2023 12:21PM

Some peeps with fixed rates will be hit.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/mortgage-costs-could-rise-by-16000-for-those-who-dont-get-the-best-fix/a513931761.html

herbalplants · 08-05-2023 12:33PM

So they cut down the work permits,

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/big-tech-turns-away-from-work-permit-system-as-hiring-slows/a807458122.html

But their earnings are going up.

In the meantime, state is looking to import builders from South Africa to build accommodation for the non EU workers which most of them, bring their family over too so they accommodate the tech giants who pay no tax,while the local population is giving birth to less kids as they can't afford them.

awec · 08-05-2023 12:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120569713#Comment_120569713

What a bizarre article.

In summary, it's telling us people coming off fixed rates will end up paying a lot more if they decide to re-fix at the highest rates they can find.

In other news, doing your weekly shop in Donnybrook Fair instead of Aldi is going to see your weekly grocery bill increase significantly.

Villa05 · 08-05-2023 12:42PM

Was in one of the poorest countries in Asia over xmass/new year. Cranes dot the skyline, even mid rise with mo cranes, but bamboo scaffolding, Builders and their families live on site

Amazing how the poorest countries used the low rates to improve there infrastructure, while wealthy countries used them to make provision of infrastructure more expensive.

No wonder investment is flowing east

08-05-2023 12:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120569834#Comment_120569834

Just a guess, but where no infrastructure exists, everything looks big and new.

Villa05 · 08-05-2023 01:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120569891#Comment_120569891

One of the most densely populated cities in the world, building flyovers, trams/underground, nuclear power plants, bridges that knock 7 hours off the commute between 1st and 3rd cities,

PokeHerKing · 08-05-2023 01:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120569800#Comment_120569800

It's an advertisement for brokers. Broker quoted saying banks only offer the lowest rates to brokers.

08-05-2023 01:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120570015#Comment_120570015

Again, where a country is one of the poorest in Asia, modernisation is easier and more visible if the money, and labour market is there to do it.

Villa05 · 08-05-2023 04:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120570217#Comment_120570217

The many flyovers required would indicate infrastructure existed but was inadequate, just like Dublin

Land also reclaimed from sea/marsh to accommodate projects. All projects are revenue positive

See a problem, overcome it Here there is 1 issue so let's not bother

I know of a few companies in Limerick sourcing labour from the bordering country. We have access to the biggest labour pool in the world through membership of the EU. We have money coming out our ears.

It's all a simple choice

08-05-2023 05:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120571294#Comment_120571294

No it doesn’t, a flyover means that they want to overpass a road going in a different direction, it doesn’t indicate whether it was new or existing.

Some marvelled at how Qatar built infrastructure for a World Cup so quickly, but it soon became very obvious that if nothing exists but sand, there is no obstacles to building, you have a cheap and plentiful labour force, and you through enough money at it, you can rapidly build impressive infrastructure.

If one of the poorest countries in Asia suddenly goes on a rapid infrastructure expansion, it’s either due to an influx of foreign investment in cheap labour, or they found oil/precious minerals. Either way, if nothing exists before that investment, then the new infrastructure looks efficient and impressive. Also, there is unlikely to be any opposition from the population to that construction. None of these conditions exist in Ireland so it is nonsense to compare them. MNCs invested here, not because of cheap labour, but none of the other conditions which exist in your poor Asian country are comparable.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting