A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

mike_cork · 12-04-2023 07:25PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-expects-banking-crisis-to-cause-a-recession-this-year-minutes-show.html

Fed predicting a mild recession in the US later in the year

Ozark707 · 13-04-2023 07:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469811#Comment_120469811

Now that you can replace the battery on an iPhone (not sure about Samsung etc) the need to upgrade is very much lessened.

vickers209 · 13-04-2023 07:43AM

Another long standing irish company on the chopping block green party hasn't helped in this instance

https://m.independent.ie/regionals/wexford/long-standing-wexford-business-stafford-fuels-seeks-buyer-as-it-exits-market-in-blow-to-new-ross-42428309.html

Seems to be alot of big players leaving ireland in all sections

argos ulster bank kbc ect

fliball123 · 13-04-2023 09:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471662#Comment_120471662

Yeah I hear of other places like gamestop giving up the ghost in Ireland as well.

brickster69 · 13-04-2023 01:08PM

Central bank of Russia reports inflation in March of 3.5% YoY

https://twitter.com/TraderTalent/status/1646181412314447872

brickster69 · 13-04-2023 02:15PM

US looking like they could be facing a $2 Trillion deficit this year if they carry on spending as they are. Easy to spend other peoples money i suppose.

https://twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian/status/1646250841635012609

brickster69 · 13-04-2023 06:26PM

According to German reports the frozen Russian funds must be returned at the end of the war.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1646500087227469826

Lula calling for alternatives to the dollar

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lula-backs-brics-currency-replace-140204909.html

quokula · 13-04-2023 11:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471662#Comment_120471662

On the other hand Amazon opened their first Irish fulfilment centre recently, Flannels opened their first Irish store, IKEA are reportedly planning a second Irish store, Aldi, Lidl and Tesco are all planning to increase their Irish presence, there is major rejuvenation of the Henry St area including the first Irish Tessuti's and Levi's new flagship store, Pret a Manger opened it's first Irish outlet last year with many more planned, Tim Horton's also opened their first Irish outlet last year with Wendy's planning to follow suit soon, AstraZenica are building a major new facility here while Pfizer are investing over a billion expanding their footprint etc

BoxcarWilliam99 · 13-04-2023 11:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475622#Comment_120475622

More chains = less SMEs.

Lower wages, less choice, soulless town centres.

Fast food restaurants and bookie shops and nothing else

quokula · 13-04-2023 11:45PM

Companies pulling out of Ireland = bad news

Companies coming to Ireland = bad news

BoxcarWilliam99 · 13-04-2023 11:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475656#Comment_120475656

Too basic. A society is made of people not corporations. Right type of growth benefits everyone.

quokula · 13-04-2023 11:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475665#Comment_120475665

So you don't think billions of investment from major pharmaceutical companies, alongside the arrival of a number of retailers and food outlets both high and low end makes up for the loss of Argos and Gamestop? But it'll lead to the streets being full of bookies for some reason?

BoxcarWilliam99 · 13-04-2023 11:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475673#Comment_120475673

Better to have example 4 independent coffee shops employing locals and selling different styles and products than each other than 4 McDonald's restaurants with screens for ordering your unhealthy bland food. Profit leaving the town and the country actually. No good.

This is unrelated to pharmaceutical companies. They are a great benefit

This isn't America yet thankfully

Jonnyc135 · 14-04-2023 08:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475692#Comment_120475692

Was in Kinsale last year and I was overwhelmed with its character and beauty - 90% of the shops there are privately and independently owned not many big chains to be seen anywhere. Big companies and chains have their place, but you so rightly say small Irish SMEs are the bedrock of every local community both socially and economically.

14-04-2023 09:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475656#Comment_120475656

Welcome to boards, where you'll hear anything but "I was wrong".

Cluedo Monopoly · 14-04-2023 09:27AM

Those Prets are nice coffee shops to be fair. Handy for a quick bite.

seenitall · 14-04-2023 12:08PM

Yes, what I like about chains like Pret, with their economy of scale, they are able to offer a really lovely selection - for example I often choose some vegan food if I have the luxury of that choice, and I find they have a few great options. The small independent cafes over here are so hit and miss on that score, mostly miss to be fair, especially outside of cities. It’s always the same old sangwiches, and the samey bland food everyone else offers - almost as if kinda opposite of the meaning of “independent”, actually. I understand that it is not as easy for them to cater to different preferences, and probably the demand is not there for them to change. For me however, reading that Pret is coming over, is good news.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 14-04-2023 12:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475970#Comment_120475970

Absolutely. It's a grim future if all we have are American chains. Independents and SMEs are the backbone

Walmart in the states used to open up ,undercut the local butcher, show shop , hardware etc etc and put them out of business using enormous buying power .

Many of Ireland town centres are just fast food restaurants and bookie shops now.

Grim

Dohnjoe · 14-04-2023 01:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474217#Comment_120474217

According to a German paper, according to unpublished EC paper, according to EC lawyers there may be legal barriers to simply seizing the money and handing it over to Ukraine

If it turns out like that I am pretty sure lawyers will a) find a way to change the laws to enable it or failing that b) block the assets in perpetuity (similar to sanctions against N Korea) and c) they are already discussing potentially using the interest payments from the frozen assets to help Ukraine to rebuild

It isn't a Friday in the last 5 decades if some figure somewhere isn't calling for "an alternative to the dollar"

14-04-2023 02:18PM

"Any day now" the dollar is on its way out.

Let me know when it actually happens.

Yurt2 · 14-04-2023 05:47PM

The dollar is going nowhere, and the BRICS are fundamentally incable of generating a credible alternative. A BRICS currency is shorthand for a mercantalist crude barter token for low-value-add commoditites.

They can do their currency and try to supplant the dollar, but they'll end up harming themselves more than the eurodollar system will come to harm.

timmyntc · 14-04-2023 06:34PM

The dollar may not be replaced as reserve currency, however this year has seen record numbers of countries agree to settle trades in mutual currencies.

Saudi are considering selling oil in Yuan to China, which is a huge shift away from the US

Yurt2 · 14-04-2023 07:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478374#Comment_120478374

I see you've read the press release. Now for the reality: Nobody wants the RMB, it's a politically managed currency, illiquid, you have to bank a currency with capital controls on it. It's functionally useless as a reserve currency. It's pegged to the dollar in any case (which will change when hell freezes over), so even if they invoice in RMB, the transaction is mediated in USD at the end of the day and China has to go to their dollar reserves, held in dollar accounts, and driving demand for a flow of dollars. No difference.

There is no alternative to the dollar system, and a petroyuan is a complete fiction. The Saudis etc smile and play nice for the cameras, but they know it's bullsh*t too and won't be moving away from the greenback.

https://archive.ph/lK43F#selection-3915.40-3919.130

The answers sound a lot like this: What’s in it for us? The greenback is freely convertible, the yuan isn’t; the dollar is liquid, the yuan isn’t. That’s the polite version; the more candid answers sounded even more emphatic about the absurdity of turning to a managed currency produced by an opaque and unpredictable financial machine.

As in every conspiracy, there’s a grain of truth in the petroyuan tale, however. Xi did encourage the region to embrace the yuan for oil trade. But rather than pricing oil in yuan, as many had expected, Xi simply asked Middle East producers to accept payments in yuan. Middle East officials were lukewarm at best. In public, they are open to debate the merits, but not much more. the Emirati trade minister, said his country was prepared to discuss settling trade in different currencies, but only for “non-oil” deals.

timmyntc · 14-04-2023 07:17PM

The sanctions on Russia beginning last year spooked many russia aligned and non-aligned countries, and now nobody wants to be totally reliant on a currency that the owners can freeze you out of at will.

Weaponising their reserve currency undermines all confidence in it - more and more countries will conduct trade in local currencies going forward because the alternative leaves you at the whim of the sanction-happy US.

Same thing can be said for SWIFT and other systems. Once weaponised, all confidence in them is totally undermined.

Kyokushin Grappler · 14-04-2023 07:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471662#Comment_120471662

Most of those are already gone here in Kilkenny. And that's despite have the FF "Party Maverick" here. We won't be able to buy a pair of knickers here soon.

Yurt2 · 14-04-2023 08:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478509#Comment_120478509

Take a look at demand for dollars and Treasury bills. There is absolutely no loss in confidence in the dollar - quite the opposite.

To replace it with what? A mercantilist barter token politically controlled by economies who practice strict capital controls to survive?

It's fantasy land stuff. But there's no shortage of ideolouges out there with crap ideas.

Lula isnt exactly an economic savant. They can experiment with this all they like, the eurodollar system will come out stronger and they'll screw their own economies.

There is no Bretton Woods 3.0 without dollar supremacy.

Hotblack Desiato · 14-04-2023 10:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478509#Comment_120478509

This is rubbish. There are absolutely vast holdings outside the US (and outside of US allies) of US dollars. Do you think your Latin American drug dealer will want payment for his shipment in Revolutionary Pesos or in cold hard US dollars? and do you think he's worried about the impact of sanctions?