Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

One of the best tricks when buying is a killer bid it's often cheaper than bidding in steps.

An ordinary buyer will seldom counter bid to a killer bid but if you came in 5k above they might follow you for another 50 k. It also stops the temptation of owners to counter bid the property up.

The LA come in with one bid if anyone beats it they buy it

Where is the disinformation, the State is effectively raiding peoples wages and using it to outbid them in their efforts to secure a home for their families, effectively driving prices and rents up and making the problem worse.

It's that simple, the government is the problem and the only way to stop this is to cut the money supply to the fools/gangsters because they will not stop.

Why can't they use that raided money to increase supply rather than price

I agree with you - but the IMF coming to town again is not the kind of black swan event I would be in favour of.

Austerity didn't do me any favours.

What's your three point plan to solve the housing crisis in five years or less?

Another bank bailout in the us.

summary: you’re mad selling property for cash. Same will happen in EU with endless funding for “green issues”. Anyone believing a word powell/lagarde says is an idiot

“Translation: the Fed's hiking cycle is dead and buried, and here comes the next round of massive liquidity injections. It also means that the Fed, Treasury and FDIC have just experienced the most devastating humiliation in recent history - just 4 days ago Powell was telling Congress he could hike 50bps and here we are now using taxpayer funds to bail out banks that have collapsed because they couldn't even handle 4.75% and somehow the Fed has no idea!”

Can you see the pyramid scheme in your post. Remove blinkers and look closely

Look back in history, How would things pan out if the madness stopped in 02/03

Missed the boat on long term US bonds, now too risky

I think a lot of people misunderstand what happened with these banks. What they did would not have seem reckless when they did it.

We can not all see the problem with coming out of low interest rates. Institutions invested in government bonds. For instance pension funds are not allowed to invest in virtually anything but government bonds with annuity money.

Remember in the EU we had negative interest rates and annuity providers would have chased very low returns in 10 year government bonds.

However going back to the two banks they had a surplus of cash and unlike BOI or AIB were not regulated that they could not invest this money. The banks invested in low interest bonds which might not have seemed reckless at the time

This has nothing to do with socialism, actually done would have you believe that the democratic party is to the left of Mao Zedong. The reality is they are probably to the right if the British conservative party

The banking system is based on the fact that depositor believe that they money is safe whether it 10 euro or 10 billion on deposit. Ya wipe out share holders and bondholders but the basic premise that depositor money is safe is always required.

The perception that you gaurantee 100k or 200 k or 2 million is flawed. We have only 2% of physical money on circulation and that is a figure from 10 years ago it probably significantly less nowadays.

With electronic banking how do you manage the expectations of depositors that they money is safe. Is it realistic for a small business that may have a payroll reguirement of 100k per month and has invoices of 4-500k a month to be received or paid to have 2-3 or more different bank accounts and manage them

Your reading my posts with those blinkers on again.

I post as a homeowner, worker and family member. A sustainable property market is in my interests. I've seen how forced sellers got exploited in the last crash.

Those ups and downs can be quiet violent which is why the ups should be used to iron out the imbalances in the economy so that the damage is minimised in the downcycle. We are on a path to the opposite. That's what causes the violent swings. The amount of damage caused by a downturn is a choice not an accident

I've continuesly advised mortgage customers to fix there rates for as long as possible while rates were at 0 or negative and for the government to use that environment to address the supply imbalance

Can you explain the last paragraph please. I was under the assumption that pension funds and banks were paying to hold excess capital as in negative base rates

Agreed.

Taking the UK as an example, the Tories were elected with a mandate to reduce immigration. They not only did not do this, immigration massively increased in the last few years. This leaves the voter with two options to ponder. Firstly, the mandate given to the Tories was simply ignored and they pursued another agenda or, secondly, the Tory party were and are unable to alter the neoliberal agenda. I personally think that it’s a little bit of both, but regardless, the end result is the same. Simply put, the major parties are either impotent or mendacious, so people will turn to alternatives.  This is what we’re seeing over in the UK.

Ireland does not have what could reasonably be called a conservative party. FG and FF are sometimes called “centre right”, but beyond the realm of economics, this simply is not the case. No mainstream party espouses socially conservative policy. No mainstream party wants to talk about immigration. No mainstream party offers anything other than neoliberalism or globalism, though they all wrap it up in a different way.

Discontent is growing here. For now, I think that life is still sufficiently comfortable such that the worst of social angst will be contained, but that may not last.  As life becomes increasingly difficult for an increasing number of people, they will be less and less likely to sit quietly whilst they are fleeced by the state. This is where extremism sets in, and it may be on the Right or the Left. If things do not improve, we may be in big trouble.

Anyways, these are my thoughts…

Those on the ladder will go for status-quo but overall I don't see how FG can top what vote they got in 2020. Anyway really getting off-topic so i'll leave it at that...

I was monitoring the SVB situation this weekend and outside of tech and finance the sentiment was 100% let it burn. Even when people believed there was a chance of contagion it remained let it burn, D's and R's. It reminded me of Brexit insofar as people seemingly giving up on thinking their lot can improve and the second best thing is to see someone with more money getting a good kicking.

JPM have predicted that the rate rise that was going to happen now won't go ahead. Interesting to see what happens in Europe now.