Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Where did I say there was a problem with it? Where you might find disagreement with others is in your definition of "timely". That is besides the point.

I was merely pointing out that it is not a new issue. If someone is only finding out in 2023 that they can't actually just unilaterally turf someone out on a whim, then they didn't do their homework! Conditions and the environment may change over time - same as anything - but the concept is constant.

deposit rates are still zero because the Irish banks are still awash with cash and the deposit books are still growing despite this why would a bank increase its deposit rates and reduce its profit when there is currently no need to so.

As I said before bonds can be risky unless you are holding to maturity and even at that you’re locking in the rate for a long period. Also remember that if there is a large scale switch to bonds the yield will drop.

More to come from this story, one suspects

Long tentacles

"I was talking to one person in particular who runs a very successful Irish company and has eight million that they have no access to today"

I never expected Irish companies to be affected with this. Very sad for people who have invested their lives into the companies.

I know a poster here counts the supply on myhome and daft. Have they noticed this years spring market has been disappointing so far? Anecdotally looking at my area after a pick up last autum in supply after a drought through covid this years spring market has not taken off. Supply of properties usually falls in December and January as nothing is put on over Christmas, but you would then expect it to start increasing in February which has not seemed to happen. Anyone else seeing this?

Yeah, that's me - supply has been falling since ~Nov last year. The drop in supply has been slowing down, and there's a hint that things might have stabilised; too early to be sure though. Whether that means supply will start to go up again the way you'd expect at this time of year - hard to know.

1 Because with cost of funding increasing, competition will be eying those deposits. Trade Republic are offering 2% on demand savings to Irish savers. 100k guarantee applies.

2 up to 5% return available on short term state backed US bonds. The dollar exposure is worth the risk as a recession would strengthen the dollar v euro. You get the yield and currency gain. Bit of a no brainer in current environment

Ref long term bonds, agree a little more risky, but with risk comes a much greater potential return as the bonds you hold increase in value in a large scale switch. That large scale swith is beginning though so caution advised. Much better to catch the start of a trend than the end

Potential return

Yield plus capital appreciation plus favourable exchange rate

Short term US bonds are a no brainer. Go long term for a greater return with a bit of calculated risk. Better than investing in property or stocks right now.

I don't disagree there, but I have an issue with these sentences:

"I think the states interests are fairly transparent. They want as many people in secure housing as possible before the next election."

It may seem pedantic, but I think that we need to not conflate the words "state" and "government". Governments comprise politicians, and these people come and go. The state is something far larger; it's the government, the bureaucracy and all that goes with it. The state does not change with election cycles, and no senior civil servant is worried about losing his or her job because the public are unhappy.

This is largely why I for one have no faith that voting for one party of the other will resolve the housing situation. The state as a whole has created this crisis, it perpetuates it, and it seems to have no interest in doing anything other than pumping money into the market or driving up demand in other ways. At the this stage, we need some sort of black swan event that will knock the stuffing out of the whole thing, but I don't know what that could be.

You'd indulge me some dramatic language on a Sunday morning I hope: may God have mercy on us all.

"Market analysts are projecting that commercial property values across retail, industrial, logistics, office and residential units will fall between 10 and 20 per cent this year.

the expected downturn in commercial property means between €5 and €10 billion could be wiped off the overall value of the market in 2023."

follow on from last week's irish life property fund stopping withdrawals

Do county councils generally buy housing on the more 'entry level' pricing? Say upwards of 400k, or does it matter?

Anyone looking for some detail on what happend to SVB and also what ripple effects it may have, here is a good vid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7C9oXK0-70&t=1363

I follow this guy on YouTube. I always feel like he gives an unbiased view. Please don't try and convince me otherwise like the newspapers I read 😅

Interesting to see US has decided not to bailout SV Bank many startups and investors in tech sector rattled by collapse of the bank

Yellen: No Federal Bailout for Collapsed Silicon Valley Bank

Silicon Valley Bank is the nation’s 16th-largest bank. It was the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history after the collapse of Washington Mutual in 2008.

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2023-03-12/yellen-says-no-federal-bailout-for-silicon-valley-bank

I've a feeling Ffg might crash the economy before anyone else gets a chance