Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

It's like a repeat of those Dundrum apartments. More public money subsidising the private market.

We just sold our second investment property, having got rid of first early 2022. Luckily we convinced our tenants to leave by putting some fear into them.

Both were brining in good money but I just have a really bad feeling about the way things are going.

I decided it was just too much to deal with and I know someone in a government body who is saying prices are going to drop. They will just keep raising rates in Europe until all bubbles are popped, could be pure nonsense.

Has anyone considered picking up an investment property, somewhere else in Europe?. Im investigating..

Italy is intresting, there cheap property is attracting London elite according to Bloomberg.

Who would have thought that affordable property would attract investment

Peak valuations in terms of what, salary multiples?

On the flip side when waiting around to buy, salaries are going up in response to massive inflation and any saved deposit is dropping in value in real terms.

It's a dangerous time to have cash sitting in the bank too.

Trying to time the market is a mugs game if you are buying a house to live in.

anyone buying a house will have to reassess can they afford the higher payments or offer a lower amount for the prospective house

This!

Stock have been moving higher for months now. Pretty obvious that no one believes the central Banks. As long as governments run large deficits, none of the inflation will end.

Have been at a couple of viewings recently and it might just be coincidental but noticing agents seem to be more engaging than last year. Asking questions, one even had a questionnaire he was completing for each person viewing to get an idea of what they're looking for. I expected with the relaxation of lending rules viewings would be much busier but they've been as quiet as they were the last 3/4 months of last year, not seeing them transfer to offers, and offers in are below asking price. It's a complete difference to this time last year when most places were going over asking price from the first viewings.

I viewed a place just before Christmas that had an offer of about 10% under asking. I called the agent and put in an offer 5% under asking and the response was 'Wow. I'm going to strongly advise the vendor to accept'. Over the moon at getting 5% under the asking price! An investor eventually offered 1k more and they accepted because it was cash. But it does feel different out there.

Well austerity, mass emigration etc. might get us there, but I wouldn't be that pessimistic.

Property are dropping in many parts of Europe (Germany/Netherlands/Sweden/Denmark...) so beware of catching falling knives. As the ECB raises rates it is highly likely to further depress HP's in Europe as well.

The US is getting closer to restrictive rates, why not Europe

It's a process not a switch, talk hawkish and scare the inflation rate down as you raise rates and meet in the middle. 6 months ago the US needed 9% + but by following the process it is now expected to be just over 5%

Oil is falling cos the market fears a recession

Some dollars are escaping the US now into Europe as valuations are seen more favourable

I remember looking at the planning application for the estate in Newbridge. There's a thread on here about it and people were wondering about its location close to the Liffey etc.

The planning application was submitted by Ardstone. It's then built by Glenveagh and houses are sold back to Ardstone. Seems bizarre.

Long may in continue

It appears on the surface like the early days of a crash in prices in that just nothing is selling anymore (anecdotal I guess) which is what you’d typically expect as sellers struggle to accept the changing market. Fall comes after that.

The only confusing thing for me is, if that were occurring you’d expect number of houses for sale to be increasing but it’s actually going the opposite way. Back down under 14k on my home today. Heading towards record lows again.

There was someone on this thread tracking movements over time, would be interesting to get an update on that.

People don't have to sell, because affordability limits have been imposed in regulations since the last crash, many are on fixed mortgages etc.

In a country with a chronic undersupply of housing who are the sellers, where are they going to move?

People upsizing are not going to walk away from 2% fixed mortgages to get a new mortgage on 4 or 5% right now, they will wait for interest rates to come down.

Sellers can just wait it out until rates come down again, without crashing the market.

In the last crash there was surplus supply, not the case at the moment.

We'd need mass emigration to reduce supply pressure.

I think we’ll know which way it’s going by the summer. I doubt investment funds will be very active going forward but who knows what level of council purchasing there might be. People need houses but it’s first time buyers that drive the market and they may take their money and their skills elsewhere. We’ve yet to have a normal selling/buying cycle post covid and if landlords are allowed to exit en mass after this ‘winter emergency period’ from April and buyers are holding off amid interest rate increases and cost of living pressures the only way is down. Essentially we’re at this current price level through bizarre and no longer present covid circumstances and external pressures from excess money printing which found its way into assets. Unless something changes and asset bubbles are re-inflated to sustain prices housing is going to deflate to a point where salary’s and savings can prop it up.