Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

more rate rises for february, march, may, june on the way - not sure how many would be buyers will keep up with this more than likely leading to drop in demand or significant drop in affordability leading to lower bids for houses later this year:

ECB set to raise rates by 50 basis points in February and March, Knot says

"Expect us to raise rates by 0.5% in February and March and expect us to not be done by then and that more steps will follow in May and June," Knot said.

one of the main lenders here already projecting some sort of slowdown

Avant Money parent expects mortgage demand slowdown

a spokeswoman for Avant Money said the pace of growth for new mortgages had moderated due to increases in pricing driven by European Central Bank rate changes.

Avant are a non-bank lender, they can't compete with the banks on rates which is why they are predicting a slow down in their own business.

They were offering 20 year mortgages fixed at 2% not so long ago, way better than the bank lenders.

The market could well slow down though, another big factor is that people on existing fixed mortgages like those are not going to sell/move to end up on a mortgage on a new property at 4%. They will just wait to upsize if they think rates will come back down in a year or two.

It's like a repeat of those Dundrum apartments. More public money subsidising the private market.

We just sold our second investment property, having got rid of first early 2022. Luckily we convinced our tenants to leave by putting some fear into them.

Both were brining in good money but I just have a really bad feeling about the way things are going.

I decided it was just too much to deal with and I know someone in a government body who is saying prices are going to drop. They will just keep raising rates in Europe until all bubbles are popped, could be pure nonsense.

Has anyone considered picking up an investment property, somewhere else in Europe?. Im investigating..

Italy is intresting, there cheap property is attracting London elite according to Bloomberg.

Who would have thought that affordable property would attract investment

Peak valuations in terms of what, salary multiples?

On the flip side when waiting around to buy, salaries are going up in response to massive inflation and any saved deposit is dropping in value in real terms.

It's a dangerous time to have cash sitting in the bank too.

Trying to time the market is a mugs game if you are buying a house to live in.

anyone buying a house will have to reassess can they afford the higher payments or offer a lower amount for the prospective house

This!

Stock have been moving higher for months now. Pretty obvious that no one believes the central Banks. As long as governments run large deficits, none of the inflation will end.

Have been at a couple of viewings recently and it might just be coincidental but noticing agents seem to be more engaging than last year. Asking questions, one even had a questionnaire he was completing for each person viewing to get an idea of what they're looking for. I expected with the relaxation of lending rules viewings would be much busier but they've been as quiet as they were the last 3/4 months of last year, not seeing them transfer to offers, and offers in are below asking price. It's a complete difference to this time last year when most places were going over asking price from the first viewings.

I viewed a place just before Christmas that had an offer of about 10% under asking. I called the agent and put in an offer 5% under asking and the response was 'Wow. I'm going to strongly advise the vendor to accept'. Over the moon at getting 5% under the asking price! An investor eventually offered 1k more and they accepted because it was cash. But it does feel different out there.

Well austerity, mass emigration etc. might get us there, but I wouldn't be that pessimistic.

Property are dropping in many parts of Europe (Germany/Netherlands/Sweden/Denmark...) so beware of catching falling knives. As the ECB raises rates it is highly likely to further depress HP's in Europe as well.

The US is getting closer to restrictive rates, why not Europe

It's a process not a switch, talk hawkish and scare the inflation rate down as you raise rates and meet in the middle. 6 months ago the US needed 9% + but by following the process it is now expected to be just over 5%

Oil is falling cos the market fears a recession

Some dollars are escaping the US now into Europe as valuations are seen more favourable

I remember looking at the planning application for the estate in Newbridge. There's a thread on here about it and people were wondering about its location close to the Liffey etc.

The planning application was submitted by Ardstone. It's then built by Glenveagh and houses are sold back to Ardstone. Seems bizarre.

Long may in continue

It appears on the surface like the early days of a crash in prices in that just nothing is selling anymore (anecdotal I guess) which is what you’d typically expect as sellers struggle to accept the changing market. Fall comes after that.

The only confusing thing for me is, if that were occurring you’d expect number of houses for sale to be increasing but it’s actually going the opposite way. Back down under 14k on my home today. Heading towards record lows again.

There was someone on this thread tracking movements over time, would be interesting to get an update on that.