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Milk Price III

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,954 ✭✭✭stanflt


    Very much so- don’t think too many will fix ever again unless the milk price is index linked



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,404 ✭✭✭ginger22


    Then again that may be false logic as its hard to imagine production cost increasing much more in the near future. Kerry have introduced an element of indexing in their fixed price contracts. Only problem was it was set @ 44 cents



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,646 ✭✭✭Wildsurfer


    At our recent Dairygold meeting our CEO said it will never be called a fixed milk price again as no one will sign up. It will be a fixed margin.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 4,731 Mod ✭✭✭✭Siamsa Sessions


    Henry Ford said, “You can have any colour you want as long as it’s black”.

    Would it be similar here? “You can have any name you want as long as the co-op still wins”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,235 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The only advantage I say with FP schemes is they would have allowed you to use up tax allowances in a low price year. I never taught they offered much of a shelter to risk. Where the real sting was when contracts were properly read this time they had an escape clause for buyers but not for sellers.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,644 Mod ✭✭✭✭K.G.


    But is not buying fertisler at the moment or leaseing farms at the current prices not the same thing.this is business.you make a decision,sometimes you get them right sometimes you sean quinn.is the problem that we dont think in terms of hedges when we are making deals



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    It is probably at least 90 percent of your total output which is abit more precarious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,235 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The problem is you are fixing your output price with no control of inputs. In most other cases of fixed prices operators are able to fix input prices

    Ryanair fix fuel prices however it only part of there in puts. This allows them to sell airline tickets months in advance and know the rest of there costs such as labour, plane repayments, airport charges.

    With milk it's different you cannot fix feed and fertilizer cists your two biggest inputs. My own opinion always was there was little benefit except as a tax management mechanism where you were a sole trader rather than in a company setup.

    If you are in a company setup you should be able to manage cash flow without use of fixed price schemes. You just leave a buffer fund in place similar to a rainy day or a sinking fund. As you will virtually always be making a profit it's immaterial whether you pay the 12% rate this year or next year. As well losses can be carried forward.

    For years fixing interest rates was like this on mortgage or other borrowing's. Banks just added a margin to profit from your wish for security. However this changed after the last crash where banks were caught with a lot of short term borrowing and struggled to get short-term funds

    They changed there model to encourage fixing of rates where now you pay a premium to remain on a variable rate. The banks can manage there money supply better by giving fixed rates of 1,3,5,7,10 years etc. While at present where deposits exceed borrowing's by 20-25% the banks do not offer fixed rates to ordinary depositors they will if deposits start to shrink

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 31,368 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Is the seasonality payment not normally paid November to February?




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 31,368 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Are glanbia staying with the twice monthly payments, think the trial period is up now



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭Grueller


    What are peoples opinion on it? It was great this year I thought when the price was high enough to leave every half monthly cheque as big as a full month from 2 years ago almost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,954 ✭✭✭stanflt


    Pain in the bollox tbh- we are now waiting a week longer for our money



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 31,368 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    I'd like a bit of communication is it continuing after the 6 month "trial"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 865 ✭✭✭Pinsnbushings


    I'd say when you get used to it the more regular cash flow is good, but ultimately if its additional administrative costs that won't leave more money in the farmers pocket



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,330 ✭✭✭alps




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,984 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Worst case low 40s …best case close to 50…..from our ceo last week I



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,070 ✭✭✭White Clover


    Does he know that cows are a great trade at present and likely to be for the first half of the year anyway!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 31,368 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Did anyone predict this time last year what the price would be for 2022?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,984 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Tbf this time last year putin hadn’t threw a stop and invaded Ukraine yet ….milk price will undoubtedly move back from current highs but I’d still expect a very solid year for milk …..feetliser and fuel well back already ….second half of year things should pick up again



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,330 ✭✭✭alps


    Drops in milk price are only ever sharp and worrying. Always get that freefall, panicky feeling.

    We'll feel that moreso this time around as we have set the break even point 10c higher that before...

    Have to think in 5 year averages and 2022 was just one of them.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,503 ✭✭✭Tonynewholland


    Production is up everywhere in the world compared to the start of 2022 and with the way the price of butter alone is falling it's looking like milk will be well back for 2023



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,266 ✭✭✭straight


    I thought I read somewhere that the kiwis are back in milk. Whatever about price I'd say supply could be back due to all the regulations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,404 ✭✭✭ginger22


    Shure "talking the price down" is par for the course every year by the processors. Supply is back but demand in China is back too. One thing is for shure with present production costs so high if price drops milk will get scarce. A lot of older lads sick of it, if there is a way out they will be gone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,984 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    China demand was curtailed because of lockdown ….which is now gone ….also products at peak were gone uncompetitive price wise …..now there back there more competitive ….demand is there ….enviro restrictions around world will curb supply …said it earlier price will be back for first 6 months but second half of year will see things settle



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,330 ✭✭✭alps


    When price begins to fall, nobody buys long. Prices fall further. Our product has a long shelf life. No point in buying today, when you can secure it cheaper tomorrow. It doesn't matter if it sits in a sellers store or a buyers store. Our product has no history of a slow drop in price.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,900 ✭✭✭mf240


    Wont be a violin left in the shops when the milk drops back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,266 ✭✭✭straight


    If the processors can get it for 30 cent, they will take it. This thing about dairy products being too expensive is a joke. Alot of that is driven by the media. People have plenty money for all other types of crap like bottled water for example.

    I can see a big drop in Irish supply due to regs. Alot of old lads around here cutting back to get out of derogation. Not many young lads coming through but those that are around here will only be cutting numbers from now on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 778 ✭✭✭farmertipp


    the reason for alot of expansion was running faster to stand still. if price stayed up at a reasonable level because of regs maybe it would balance out for some? demand is still increasing. markets should stay fairly balanced



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,324 ✭✭✭atlantic mist




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 778 ✭✭✭farmertipp


    I hear milk price under pressure for the next while. took a fair dive lately.



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