FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 12:15PM

The 06Z GEFS improves the chances of cold weather in the few days up to and including Christmas. The key takeaways from the mean are the extending of heights towards Ireland from Greenland, a flattening out of the jetstream and some regression of the euro high. We will most likely see a further dip in mean temps in the ensembles when they are out in 90 mins or so.

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 12:39PM

The GFS 6z ensembles still rolling out but at a glance compared to the 00z it looks like a further overall swing to cold for Christmas. While the operational is in the colder end of the range, it does not appear to be an outlier as there are several other members that do go colder. The Operational run appears to have a good deal of support up to the 25th of December.

Looking at the ECM and GFS ensembles it does appear the overall trend is for a cold spell between the 21st of December and 26th of December when you look at the upper air temperatures, however quite a few of the runs go milder after this date, but this involves high pressure which would keep it cold on the surface till possibly New Years Day and that's where the models finish up.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 12:59PM

The extended 0Z ECM mean is quite a bit colder than 12z mean. Christmas Day would be a couple of degrees below the IMT at least based on this i.e. Around 3-4c.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 01:59PM

The 06zGFS ensembles has a greater number of colder members for next week than the 00z. The overall mean also lower

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 02:14PM

Looking forward to the 12z from the GFS, GEM and ECM later, hopefully no nasty surprises. All in all the cold spell next week looks similar to the current one, mostly dry, cold and frosty, it could last at least a week if we get that high pressure from Christmas day and remain on the cold side of the ridge. None of the models are going for what I really want tho and that's an unstable easterly.

Billcarson · 15-12-2022 02:18PM

Maybe this Dec will be similar to 09, cold and mostly dry overall. Even that yr the snow didn't really come until right at the end of the month/ early jan.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 02:35PM

Around average or above average temps forecast on the UKMO MOGREPS.

almostthere12 · 15-12-2022 05:37PM

Just looking out the window and the car is still covered in frost and the wife's is starting to get a new covering.........but can we go back to this next week or even better throw some snow in as well!!

ICON 12z is a bit of a mixed bag with cold from the north for Tuesday/Wednesday and then milder weather again for the 23rd and looks like another low incoming after that.......not a great run!

GFS 12z well the less said the better, let's phase every low in together for the craic, some cold might be incoming after that but well into FI.

UKMO 12z going out 144h looks bad as well, potential behind with GL heights building but probably going to see another low system spawn off North America in any case.

GEM 12z never phases with the low, cold is a bit slow getting to us but -8 uppers in on Christmas Day but of course that is in FI, main thing is it doesn't phase with the low.

So back to where we started with only 1 run supporting what we want, GFS ensembles will be interesting and then of course onto the ECM............although I am thinking that I might not look at another chart until Sunday and see where we have landed!!

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 05:51PM

Model watching over the past 4 days has been a bit like being blind folded, being spun around 3 times and then you throw the stone into a pond and finally you take off the blindfold to see where the stone lands.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 05:55PM

Looks like a lot of that displaced cold from the northern latitudes is going to hit the USA all the way down to Florida. Would be a serious and dangerous cold spell for the USA. Entrenched cold in the USA usually fires up the Jetstream in the Atlantic.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 06:07PM

The 12z GEFS ensembles are not great. Backward step if you are looking for persistent cold next week. Heights that were extending from Greenland have retreated. UKMO, GEM and GFS all indicating a rather typical Irish winter setup of alternating airmasses i.e. milder southewesterlies and colder NW Polar Maritime. There is some cold to very cold members in the GEFS ensembes but it's weighted about 2 to 1 in favour of less colder weather dominating.

With the exception of a trend to colder weather over the last 24 hours, the trend overall has been very much pointing towards the former being the most likely outcome. Unless the ECM states otherwise, the run in to Christmas is looking rather benign in terms of temperatures which I am sure some people will welcome. Even though it's not over until the rotund woman yodels Jingle Bells, for now it's a case of .....

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 06:13PM

GFS 12z is looking like one of the mildest in the range. To be honest a warmer final 10 days of December was mentioned in many of the winter outlooks by several forecasters so it's not surprising. If this verifies we may have to wait till January for another shot of cold.

The Nao is now forecast to recover back to neutral or slightly positive towards the end of December with the AO still staying negative but not as negative as currently. Still scope for northern blocking but less so than recently.

I feel all options are still on the table for Christmas and beyond but the most likely outcome is mild to cool zonality alternating with maybe the odd frost and some wintry potential at times in the north-west.

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 06:21PM

GFS 12z also turns it very wet beginning Saturday evening and persisting right through to New Years Day, no shortage of rainfall particularly across western areas but generally looks wet everywhere.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 06:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120000686#Comment_120000686

Just the 10 inches of rain in the Western Highlands. Add that on to snow melt!

SleetAndSnow · 15-12-2022 06:34PM

The last four GFS runs have all been different. 18z cold, 00z warm, 06z cold, 12z warm. It's so unreliable, I think it's not even worth looking at the OP outside of the ensembles

Currently im more inclined to watch the UKMO and GEM

.Donegal. · 15-12-2022 07:24PM

Breezy

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 07:25PM

ECM follows GFS with the heights regressing to Greenland.

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 07:41PM

ECM looking like next week is going to be fairly mild overall. Not quiet a blowtorch but not far off.

Still time for alot to change as Christmas is still 10 days away. Once we get the warm plume out of the way on Monday/Tuesday we should start to get a better idea where we are at for Christmas.

Hooter23 · 15-12-2022 07:56PM

Charts look ok up to around next thursday after that they just dont look right and will probably be completely different by the time we get there...and as for the long range forecast for the winter you can just throw that in the bin...it will end up being the opposite and be extremely cold in places at times as it already has been

Oneiric 3 · 15-12-2022 08:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120001010#Comment_120001010

You are right, the patterns on the charts lately sort of look out of place or something. If they verify though one thing that pattern will do is keep the near Arctic very cold and with the cold just continuing to build up there. This current plunge of Artic air over us actually was pushed down by a strong ridge over the NW American continent, and if another one builds there over the next few weeks, then that could push even colder air down over us as we head into deep winter.

Billcarson · 15-12-2022 08:19PM

When we get cold spells or snaps in a winter they are often a few weeks apart. For all we know though this cold spell could be it for the winter but I doubt it. My money is on around the second week of Jan for the next cold spell.

Oneiric 3 · 15-12-2022 08:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120001093#Comment_120001093

Wouldn't it be a scream if we ended up with the mildest winter on record in the end?

I've heard a theory before that wet Novembers are often a prelude to colder Decembers and winters in general. Seems to have been proven true this time around at least (and at least up to this point)

Rebelbrowser · 15-12-2022 08:59PM

Day 10, Xmas day, on the ECM has potential, would like to see the next frame....

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 09:41PM

It's unusual for one cold spell to follow another with only a few mild days in between, although that did happen in 2010. Cold spells are usually a few weeks apart like what happened in 2018. My guess is if we do get another spell like the current one but sometime in January, it could well be alot colder than what we've just been through over the past 2 weeks as we would be in mid winter. As far as i'm concerned Christmas is still an open book, we've no idea if it's going to be 14C and cloudy, 12C and rain, 8C and cloudy or 0c and frosty. Let's see what tomorrow brings and take it day by day.

Danno · 15-12-2022 09:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120001122#Comment_120001122

Indeed, 2009 was a very wet November followed by a very cold winter. November 2010 was quite wet from 7th to 17th inclusive.

And IIRC Kerry got torrential rains around or just after Halloween too.

nacho libre · 15-12-2022 09:57PM

A mild week would be tolerable if we went cold around Christmas day. Could that intense cold over America end up being a friend or foe?

Neddyusa · 15-12-2022 10:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120001365#Comment_120001365

Agree with most of what you say except..."could be a lot colder than what we've just been through"!

I think that's very very unlikely, given that the past week was the coldest since 2010, which gave us the coldest week on record in many places.

Chris_5339762 · 15-12-2022 10:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120000901#Comment_120000901

Ah here they come.

Cold flooding into the US seems to mean storms in this part of Europe. Thats the way I see this going now. We'll have the next week cool-cold as generally described, then storms over Christmas and into the New Year.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 11:31PM

Ah, the pub run. Xmas Eve 🎅🎅🎅🎅

sicknotexi · 15-12-2022 11:34PM

Sneachta for Xmas eve on the pub run.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST