FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 06:01PM

A massive amount of flip flopping indeed. Past few runs have been blowtorch south-westerlies for the days leading into Christmas. This afternoons run gives us nationwide sub zero temperatures on Christmas Day. A massive pinch of salt with this for now.

Snow possible across northern and western areas, much dryer to the east and south.

GEM not going for this fully, gets us cold for about 2 days. Icon has very brief glancing blow of cold from this.

We need more runs and for the ECM to join in.

WolfeEire · 14-12-2022 06:14PM

Not to whizz on any parades but the GFS op run is looking like it's in the lower end of the members regarding temps i.e. not very well supported. The mean temps are certainly lower than the 06z and the Jetstream has shifted south, which consequently shifts the Atlantic conveyor belt of muck further south. The Euro high also not as progressive while a wedge of heights extends towards Ireland form the northwest.

I had being preparing to throw in the towel regarding the possibility of a White Christmas if there wasn't a marked change in this evening's output. GEM has followed the GFS and put away the blowtorch for now. All eyes on ECM.

Ps...The GFS is a mad mad model.

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 06:17PM

It seems since the new GFS got going about 10 days ago that the operational runs all seem to follow the coldest or warmest range in the ensembles which gives no clear indication where we are heading with such massive swings from one operational run to the next.

WolfeEire · 14-12-2022 06:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119996682#Comment_119996682

That's exactly it. I look at the mean in the ensembles now rather than the op run. It's like standing outside the Ferrari dealership when you know you're going to end up crossing the road to the second hand banger dealer.

SleetAndSnow · 14-12-2022 06:21PM

Indeed, while the Op is nearer the colder end of the ensembles, there is a clear trend towards colder weather I think after the mild blip. A good few of the members are at the -5 level or below. Waiting for the members to catch up to the 25th!

But yeah, im not sure why they fully implemented this model. It seems to model very intense lows still, puts them all over the place at times, has weirdly shaped lows, is always at the extremes...

nacho libre · 14-12-2022 06:29PM

Yes, indeed the GFS is getting in the festive spirit. It gets rid of the pesky Euro Heights. Is it an outlier though? The GEM, which as Wolfeire pointed out, has been leading the way is not quite as good. I must confess I thought it was done and dusted in the run up to Christmas, but maybe it's not. Let's see does the ECM move towards it.

WolfeEire · 14-12-2022 06:30PM

As suspected the op run isn't well supported but a not insignificant shift towards colder weather into mid week next week. At the end of the day, unless that Euro high retreats, we will end up with a mobile Atlantic weather regime. Eyes on ECM for any changes on that.

Gonzo · 14-12-2022 06:39PM

here is the coldest outlier, P26 of the GFS 12z. No snow with this tho as it has high pressure over us.

WolfeEire · 14-12-2022 07:50PM

Much colder ECM run. Very cold later Tuesday into at least Thursday. Euro heights not so progressive.

munsterlegend · 14-12-2022 07:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119997040#Comment_119997040

Constantly changing from run to run. More surprises ahead for better or for worse.

nacho libre · 14-12-2022 07:56PM

Yeah, the Arctic High is working in our favour this time. Will future runs show the same thing? Aparrently they are hard to model, but the form horse is they retreat rather than push South. Could this be the exception?

ascophyllum · 14-12-2022 08:12PM

Even Sunday and Monday, just 3 days away keeps changing, the models don't seem to handle well the change in the polar vortex and the associated downstream considerations.

Danno · 14-12-2022 08:32PM

The ECM 12Z picks up an interesting feature running west-east across the centre of the country early on Saturday. Ninja snow from the west? 1c air temps may just about support it away from western coasts!

bazlers · 14-12-2022 08:42PM

Well has everyone dried their tears again until the next run : ) ; )

WolfeEire · 14-12-2022 09:00PM

UKMO MOGREPS

Neddyusa · 14-12-2022 09:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119997198#Comment_119997198

Time to rev-up the <120 hrs thread?!

Danno · 14-12-2022 09:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119997608#Comment_119997608

Indeed - I should have posted that there! I'm not sure if it can be moved to the 120hrs thread - but I've requested it.

almostthere12 · 15-12-2022 12:19AM

Gfs 18z continues the decent runs this evening, let's see what tomorrow brings!

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 01:48AM

A definite trend emerging in the GFS to suggest Sunday's break in the current cold spell could be a rather brief incursion. Surface temp (2m height) comparisons between this morning's run and tonight's run. GFS doing its best to signal Sunday/Monday as a 'mild snap' 👹

GEM and ECM are not as cold but have pulled back from what was looking like a very mild few days before Christmas Day.

As things stand we are facing into a fairly mobile Atlantic weather regime with alternating periods between cold and milder airmasses. BUT....some very cold members are showing up on the ensembles. The main reason is that they either (or both) show heights extending southeast towards Ireland from Greenland or the euro high regressing from western Europe.

Rebelbrowser · 15-12-2022 08:39AM

Quickly looking at this morning charts and then looking at MTCs forecast, it's hard to fully square them - seems to me to be a fair bit of support for potentially cold to very cold weather again between 23 and 26 December. What am I missing?

Cork2021 · 15-12-2022 08:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119998580#Comment_119998580

MTC will always be conservative in my view!

almostthere12 · 15-12-2022 09:52AM

Looks like a flip again in the charts this morning, the ECM has gone colder due to the Greenland high not allowing the low to mix with the low over Ireland, however the GFS has now gone back to allowing that mix to happen and hence milder air next week.

The UKMO now also has the 2 lows combining, as does the ICON. If you are looking for snow on Christmas Day then GEM has potential, doesn't mix the lows too much and while it doesn't get in proper cold next week there is a push down from the north of -8 uppers on Christmas Day.

TheMilkyPirate · 15-12-2022 09:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119998580#Comment_119998580

It's nearly two weeks away plus its one man's opinion. There are plenty of very knowledgeable folk on here when it comes to weather its always best to take a blend of everyones opinion and ideas.

Rebelbrowser · 15-12-2022 10:16AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119998731#Comment_119998731

That's generally fair comment but the divergence is in 5 or 6 days time, not two weeks (but appreciate 5 or 6 days away is a long time in the current difficult to predict set up)

nacho libre · 15-12-2022 10:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119998580#Comment_119998580

The Arctic High playing ball. Perhaps MT thinks that the models showing less of a push South of the Arctic High is correct. As an Arctic High rarely works in our favour. If it does not push South enough we end up with a flatter pattern with a low or lows close by for a few days. So it could be quite a wet and cool run up to Christmas, with perhaps snowy cold returning just after Christmas.

WolfeEire · 15-12-2022 10:55AM

There is probably more of a risk of snowfall at some point next week than the current cold spell has so far produced. It will turn colder from Tuesday but as Nacho pointed out, what the heights to our north do is far from clear but the normal bias in models, based on what normally happens, is that the high pressure will dip south for small period only, thereby shortening any cold snap. The Euro high also remains a factor in terms of how far west it pushes.

We haven't had a cold, seasonal run up to Christmas in quite some time so I'm enjoying looking at developments with each run that comes around.

Incidentally, Met forecast for next week isFurther outlook: It looks to gradually get colder throughout next week.

PokeHerKing · 15-12-2022 11:29AM

Gfs 6z looking better, high angles nicely and that shortwave doesn't phase amd looks to be sliding, so we stay much colder for Xmas.

gerrybhoy · 15-12-2022 11:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119999059#Comment_119999059

[IMG]

[IMG]

almostthere12 · 15-12-2022 11:45AM

I am definitely liking the GFS 6z, as WolfeEire mentioned higher chance of snow. Back living in Cork after a 12 year hiatus but if memory serves me right we do tend to get more snow from north westerlies even if they are normally short lived events?

Gonzo · 15-12-2022 12:14PM

I don't see much snow on the 6z away from Scotland and Northern Ireland but it is cold for several days with plenty of frost once again. However we have had 2 weeks of blocking and cold and these events can often be followed by a significant reload or event further down the road so I feel there is a fair chance of something bigger and more exciting during final days of December or sometime in January. I'm probably wrong but hopefully there is some truth to it. I'm still holding onto hope that we will get the real deal during mid winter, a screeching easterly.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST