FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

adocholiday · 11-12-2022 08:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119984692#Comment_119984692

It was just over a year ago since we had Storm Barra sit over Ireland for 2 days and I had no power for nearly a week. GFS has some pretty strong winds impacting us from Sunday morning right through to Wednesday morning, let's hope its slightly overcooked it.

Villain · 11-12-2022 08:31PM

ECM ensembles showing huge support now for milder air from Sunday but could be just a blip for a few days?

Gonzo · 11-12-2022 09:42PM

All models now pretty much in agreement of a mild push from Sunday, temperatures back into double figures but it may only last till Tuesday, after that the likelyhood is for temperatures to start sliding away again as we head towards Christmas but it remains to be seen will this just be a cool Christmas or will we get a proper cold spell again between Christmas and New Years Day.

WolfeEire · 11-12-2022 09:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119984795#Comment_119984795

Would appear that the ECM ensembles mean backs cooler temps after Sunday/Monday next week.

Ukmo MOGREPS follows suit

Temperature anomaly for 21st to 25th

WolfeEire · 12-12-2022 01:39AM

The arrival of an unsettled and milder airflow from next Sunday 18th, with the cold spell slowly easing from Saturday morning, is likely to be followed through to Christmas Day and a few days beyond by a mobile Atlantic pattern. There will be alternating periods between rain bearing lows and biting northwesterlies dragging in wintry showers.

Such a pattern might also explain the 850hPa means dipping below 0C on all models for the period.

Whether one of these cold turns coincides with Christmas Day is another matter yet to be resolved.

While this is the most likely outcome imo, there is scope for some change but a trend to something else would want to start cropping up by midweek as modelling has been quite consistent for a few days.

The only caveats I can add that would unbalance such an outcome are that the NAO Index does indicate a dip into negative territory again from the 19th/20th. The AO Index also remains in negative territory meaning cold will continue spilling into the lower latitudes. The Midwestern and Eastern US States look like being the recipients of the majority of such cold, but that can change for Western Europe with subtle changes elsewhere.

For now, we have five more days of 🥶 to contend with.

Villain · 12-12-2022 07:54AM

UKMO is the rogue model Thai model with low getting squashed and cold clinging on! Out on its own though

WolfeEire · 12-12-2022 12:07PM

GFS 06Z mean showing a building of heights (1045 to 1050) over Greenland extending heights a little further towards Ireland by Sunday and into Monday resulting in subtle changes to the placement of the low. The end result is that it doesn't get as mild as previous runs, southwesterly winds are not as strong and the heaviest precip shifts away from Ireland. Subtle change and does not affect the anticipated end of the current cold spell. Still, the height rises may be a factor into the following week with cooler means showing up by Tuesday (20th) compared to 0zGFS. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the jetstream has also changed its tilt, providing the Atlantic systems a less direct route towards Ireland. 06z top, 00z bottom

850 mean also cooler. I expect to see a shift in the GFS ensembles with some much cooler members showing up for that midweek period.

Longing · 12-12-2022 12:25PM

Uk met and GFS at 144 very simpler. Reload from the north on the cards.

WolfeEire · 12-12-2022 01:39PM

The 06Z GFS 2m temp (near surface) mean (in red) is cooler than the 0Z mean (second pic)

nacho libre · 12-12-2022 02:59PM

The UK Met Office have been consistently saying it would stay cold in the north- of course that excludes us, but once the cold remains in the North of England and Scotland there is always a chance it can push South again. So hopefully the model runs will firm up on the idea of the milder weather being a brief interruption before a colder turn again towards Christmas and the New Year. Hopefully with a snowier outcome more widely.

almostthere12 · 12-12-2022 04:34PM

Icon just out and the below is as eager as it gets at bringing in milder air over the weekend, shifting towards the UKMO, will be interesting to see the 12z from the GFS and ECM.

Elmer Blooker · 12-12-2022 05:16PM

This is only six days away! Look at the NH.

almostthere12 · 12-12-2022 05:20PM

bit of a shift alright in the models with more forcing into Greenland and that NH profile looking a lot better, see below GFS 6z v 12z

Villain · 12-12-2022 05:50PM

UKMO like a dog with a bone!

nacho libre · 12-12-2022 05:53PM

Lets hope the ECM this evening backs the UKMO and GEM. We can have a bit more confident that the GFS might be incorrect then. Also If those GEM and UKMO charts are right it would be further pressure on the Vortex. This would not guarantee a SSW but it may increase our chances of getting one.

Having said all that i see the GFS does go on to show a very promising chart for the big day.

.Donegal. · 12-12-2022 06:02PM

Quick check on gfs for up here. Delays the mild weather. High on Sunday of 2 to 3c with rain and snow. Earlier runs had it 7 to 8c.

WolfeEire · 12-12-2022 06:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119986560#Comment_119986560

GFS first off the mark this morn and the 12z has been joined by GEM and UKMO. Quite a dramatic reversal of a trend to milder weather that has been fairly solid for the last few days. Will need a drop of tea (or three) and the ECM later to digest all of it together, but very very interesting developments this afternoon.

SleetAndSnow · 12-12-2022 06:09PM

Really is reminding me of the Azores low scenario, I think the models underestimate the strength of the Greenland high and the strength of the blocking.

Just for fun

Im liking the GEM snow for the 22nd :p

Gonzo · 12-12-2022 06:59PM

GEM 12z is a very cold run indeed.

Midday temperatures for this Friday afternoon: Quite a few GEM and GFS runs bring the -10C isoterm very close to us on Friday, a few outliers go even colder than that temporarily on Friday.

This has to be overcooking the cold.

GEM has it milder over the weekend, daytime temperatures generally 4 to 7C but no higher.

GEM keeps us very chilly next week starting from Monday with temperatures barely above freezing.

We finish up next Thursday afternoon with daytime temperatures no better than -8C in places

Unlikely to happen as severe as this, this has to be a very cold outlier.

Getting back to the present cold spell, it looks as if Friday could be the coldest day of the entire spell. The return of mild has also been pushed back to Monday now on both GEM and GFS with the mild air on Monday being perhaps no more than a 1 day wonder. Everything past Monday looks a bit up in the air and is likely to change but at this stage another cold spell is starting to look more likely as we head towards Christmas with the possibility of the upcoming mild turn becoming a bust. More runs needed of course to have any sort of confidence of a round 2 next week.

WolfeEire · 12-12-2022 07:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119988437#Comment_119988437

Not yet and maybe not at all. All models have pulled back on the low pressure system on Sunday. What's notable is that this reverses a fairly solid trend from the past 3-4 days. Will be very interesting to see if these changes are reflected in further output overnight. The placement and track of this low will dictate our weather leading up to the Christmas. It ain't a trend until it happens twice! Once could be a wobble...

Gonzo · 12-12-2022 07:55PM

ECM 12z turns us much milder for next week. All to play for yet, next week is far from resolved.

nacho libre · 12-12-2022 08:44PM

Can we get a Scandi high before or just after Christmas? The GFS is tantilising in that regard. I just hope its on to something and we go into the freezer at some stage. The NH profile is vastly different from how it would normally look at this time of year. It would be somewhat frustrating if we get another block but its too west based near Greenland or if its a Scandi high and its not orientated correctly to pave the way for cold from the east or north east to reach us, but we are in with a shout of something good just before or after Christmas.

Gonzo · 12-12-2022 08:56PM

If we do get another proper cold spell between Christmas and mid February fingers crossed it's not another slack northerly with just frost and fog, we've had 2 weeks of that already, so here is hoping the next one is more easterly based and much more unstable. I would rather a 3 day event of that than a 2 week event of dry cold.

Back to today and the models are all offering something very different from Sunday.

GFS: turns milder on Monday then back to low level cold from Tuesday with potential for some wintry precipitation in the run up to Christmas.

GEM: turns milder on Sunday very briefly and back into a potentially more severe cold spell than the current one.

ECM: turns milder on Sunday and stays mild.

Perhaps by this time tomorrow things will become a bit clearer. Right now just about everything is on the table for next week.

Say my name · 12-12-2022 08:57PM

It's been posted above. But GEM has us back in the freezer again. Dry with high pressure overhead but back in the freezer.

Gonzo · 12-12-2022 11:43PM

GFS 18z introduces the mild late Sunday and brings a relatively mild run up to Christmas. Temperatures getting up to 14C on Monday, cooler on the Tuesday and Wednesday and back into double figures again after that.

Oneiric 3 · 12-12-2022 11:59PM

Just looking back at some historical charts and no doubt this set up brought some wintery weather to parts of the north on this day in 2014:

squarecircles · 13-12-2022 12:13AM

This time next week will be buried in the pig muck, just in time for Christmas...everything weeping with misery.

pauldry · 13-12-2022 01:04AM

Looking at the GFS pub run. Since they can't resolve next week they are leaving us in the freezer and throwing away the key. Tomorrow will surely bring the mild scenario back to the table.