FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Yep indeed. People can do whatever. It's not necessarily being critical.

Personally speaking I don't really bother looking at the models when we get a cold spell. I hardly looked at them during December 2010 for example. I just want to live in the moment for now.

No it's not really at anyone - is more a general theme that pops up during colder weather. Does every year. I think boards generally does the balance very well to be fair but I think it was Jan 2021 it got particular bad in here - absolutely anyone pointing out a bad trend or that was hounded for being miserable and tbh it's just not nice. Now if people are using good old Sods Law as their technical model then I do get the annoyance of harping on about a breakdown that may not exist on the charts - I get it totally. But the erosion of heights later next week does look like it will open the door for a potential easing of the cold.

Many experts seem sure of more cold and blocking to breakout thereafter though - so a wonderfully seasonal December looks a huge possibility, from start to pretty much finish!

Yes- ECM route could result in quite the extension to our cold spell, the end date is far from decided. Exciting times.

I would absolutely love if we can stretch this up to Christmas, no better time of year. GFS has other ideas but it’s been performing quite poorly over the past week or so.

Was just about to post the same, @BLIZZARD7

Quite a turnup for the books that ECM run, and very much out on its own at this stage. Will await the ensembles with interest to see how much support it has. The Greenland block becomes somewhat elongated by the 16th and 17th, serving to block off the direct track northeast of that Atlantic low. The latter ends up becoming a slider low of sorts on this run. VERY interesting times ahead if others also hint at that. First though, the ECM ensembles later.

ECM op run very much an outlier. Still a lot of spread. Will see in the morning run.

Not updated to the 12z yet, but 10 day temp anomaly map showing a good part of Europe in the blues. A rare sight these days so worth keeping on the records.

No Athens snow this year for once, send them a photo of Ashtown Castle instead!

A definite move towards the ECM in tonight's GFS mean with respect to a less aggressive push from the Atlantic next weekend into the following week, as @Danno alluded to a while ago. Earlier, the ECM showed height rises towards Ireland from Greenland. The 18z GFS mean shows something similar.

Here is the mean chart for the morning of Monday 19th. It flattens the Jetstream somewhat and sends the low on a more southeastward trajectory.

Overall, the GFS ensembles are heavily weighted towards a rise in temperatures, but the not insignificant height rises are worth following in the early morning run.

The Jetstream position and strength in the 12z was very different and suggested a much quicker transition to milder weather. Here is the mean position of same from the 12z (I couldn't get the exact same timestamp but there's only a 6-hour time difference to current run above)

The NAO Index posted by @Gonzo also suggests that the Atlantic conveyor belt may not be very successful for long in reasserting its authority.

As someone who only vaguely understands the technical language but has been following this forum for years, I am absolutely loving this December on the weather forum!

ARPEGE now also showing height rises in to GL

GFS 06z now showing the high pressure over Greenland staying around through the weekend and into early next week, another very interesting few days of model watching ahead!

models show an attempt at a scandi high at 196h. Not ideally placed with SE winds