FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

WolfeEire · 08-12-2022 11:59AM

GFS mean very solid on keeping cold in place into latter stages of next week, a setup supported by all other models. Really making a meal out of my IMT in December competition 😜

Gonzo · 08-12-2022 12:03PM

My IMT for December not looking great either, unless we get an exceptionally mild blowtorch south-westerly flow for the final week to 10 days of December. The GFS 6z definitely going the blowtorch direction in the countdown to Christmas with daytime temperatures up to 14C in places.

bazlers · 08-12-2022 12:12PM

Wow even into Russia...could never happen surely. Now if it was potential for bitterly cold id be all in.. funny how the heart overrules the head 😃.

Be nice to a reload around the christmas period as MTC speculated this morning.

WolfeEire · 08-12-2022 12:27PM

By Saturday week, there is a majority cast of perturbations in the 6z GFS signalling the Atlantic breaking through.

Around 20 of the 30 show either a mild or very mild and unsettled (rain) push. About 5 (17% roughly) show very cold weather in place and another 5% keeping it cool and rather non-descript.

This is way into FI but there is a solid trend towards an end to this cold spell even in the outer reaches of the GEM and ECM too.

Confidence is high that cold will last through until then. We will see what next set of runs show and if they show increase/decrease in support for the milder turn at the end of next week.

ascophyllum · 08-12-2022 12:29PM

The GFS and all the models now show the low sliding under and the cold is pretty much secured untill the end of next week most likely, whatever about snow, this is very welcome weather in December for Christmas markets and outdoor events.

Gonzo · 08-12-2022 12:45PM

The lack of snow and instability with this cold spell is disappointing but we needed a dry spell badly to dry out the saturated land and it makes good outdoor weather despite the chill. Fingers crossed we get another cold spell in January with some decent snow next time!

TheMilkyPirate · 08-12-2022 12:49PM

Have to say the ICON has handled this really well. Has had the low undercutting for a while now. GFS piss poor.

With regards to snow chances I think there will be a few over the next week. GFS has some lovely streamer action on the east coast from Monday into Wednesday.

.Donegal. · 08-12-2022 12:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970581#Comment_119970581

It’s practically day 1 of the cold spell. It’s the 8th of December. Nothing has been resolved yet for the rest of December. To rule out the chance of decent snow for the rest of the month at day 1 of an extended cold spell is bit ridiculous

Gonzo · 08-12-2022 12:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970613#Comment_119970613

There may be some flurries this evening in places but unlikely to amount of much. We may also get some wintry/snow showers next week. I didn't rule out snow for the rest of the month as there could be a reload in the run up to the new year.

BLIZZARD7 · 08-12-2022 01:07PM

Get the cold in, the snow will follow. FI is very close at the moment, especially for finer details such as precise wind direction on the Irish Sea. It also wouldn’t surprise me if features started popping up during the next week.

There will be more snow chances, the incessant and largely unforeseen rain earlier in the week in Dublin shows the Irish Sea is unpredictable, and we have a week+ of cold air in place. If we have winds coming from an easterly quadrant in the next week, streamers will pop up, we just don’t know exactly where yet.

Parts of the east may see snow tonight, it might be a little to marginal at sea level, but let’s see, higher ground North Wicklow and South Dublin could see a decent covering if the streamers get going.

pauldry · 08-12-2022 02:24PM

GFS going all out mild after midmonth. Why is it on its own? Maybe because if its right it can say we were the only model that was right. I'd expect the cold to stay longer but who knows. The majority of our weather is mild so maybe mild wins.

US3 · 08-12-2022 02:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970974#Comment_119970974

I don't think weather modeling computers have conscious thoughts. Weird post

snowstorm445 · 08-12-2022 03:06PM

Have to say it's a bit bizarre that people are already trampling over themselves to announce the breakdown of this when it's not even really begun. Never mind the fact that it's outside of the reliable timeframe, and so much has changed back and forth in the past few days. People on here were already writing premature obituaries a few days ago, announcing the end of the spell this weekend. What's with this obsessive pessimism and nay-saying about every bit of good weather we get? Reverse psychology? It's the best spell of winter weather we've had in nearly 5 years, just enjoy it. :)

Cue a Mrs Doyle "maybe I like the misery" GIF. :D

nacho libre · 08-12-2022 03:54PM

Yes, you would wonder is the GFS doing what it historically does in sweeping the blocking away . This situation reminds me of March 2013, the GFS kept forecasting the end of the cold in the UK only for it to be pushed back. Of course it could be right this time, but wasn't the parallel prior to it taking over from the old GFS performing poorly enough? Having said all that the ec46- the long range ECM model- does show it warming up around the 19th, but the good news is it still sees above average heights to the north west into January. So if we are lucky maybe we will get further cold opportunities after any mild interruption. I would be happy if it warmed up between the 17th and 23th, then we went into the freezer with snow for all from the 24th onwards. Now if only the weather would respect and grant my wishes!

WolfeEire · 08-12-2022 03:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971380#Comment_119971380

Read the second half of your post as if it was a Santa letter, Nacho 😜

At this rate and the cost of heating the house, I'll actually be writing to Santa to get coal this Christmas. Encouraging the kids to do likewise

TheMilkyPirate · 08-12-2022 04:54PM

Lovely run from the ICON

Gonzo · 08-12-2022 05:04PM

Icon Fills the Irish Sea with Snow showers or longer outbreaks of snow from Sunday evening into Monday!

Winds in from the east for about 36 hours and then more north-easterly after Wednesday.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-12-2022 05:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971634#Comment_119971634

You're more excitable than usual. What have you done with Gonzo? 😂

The cold keeps coming until at least the 16h on the GFS

Villain · 08-12-2022 05:31PM

UKMO12z slides the low and keeps the cold coming. Who was going to be playing golf next Tuesday again 😁

Villain · 08-12-2022 05:34PM

GFS follows too, no sign of any mild air out to 17th.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-12-2022 05:36PM

Down from 3c to 1.3c in an hour at Dublin Airport. That off-shore breeze making it's presence felt there.

Villain · 08-12-2022 05:43PM

That'll do pig that'll do!

TheMilkyPirate · 08-12-2022 05:46PM

UKMO is a belter as well. Great model output today!

Hooter23 · 08-12-2022 05:49PM

The charts can barely forecast a few days ahead even one week ahead is too much...and by the time we get there the weather that was forecasted will be very different...anyway the charts go back to the usual weather pattern of mild/wet when they dont have a clue which is usually a week or more ahead so its pointless most of the time looking that far ahead

Gonzo · 08-12-2022 05:55PM

GFS 12z is considerably more snowier. This also shows the IOM shadow very well over this part of Meath and Dublin, which I wouldn't be too concerned about right now as this is liable to much change closer to the time.

Villain · 08-12-2022 05:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971812#Comment_119971812

Yes but this thread is for FI and that is what we do here, post charts from FI and discuss them, there are other threads if you want shorter range discussion.