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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,667 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I don't know if it would work like that. The specific reason why Trump controls the Republican party to the extent he does is because he went directly to the party's grassroots with a potent mix of celebrity, ignorance and vengeful rhetoric. He was able to tap into something that no other candidate saw or was prepared/able to go near. That's why the Republican party has spinelessly defended and covered for Trump these last six years. He's got the party's balls in a vice.

    The party is not going to extend the same courtesy to DeSantis on a national level unless he can command the same level of grassroots support. He's done brilliantly in Florida, but replicating that nationwide very much remains to be seen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,103 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Nice recap in Salon by one of their better political writers on why nothing will happen to TFG even after this week. Not sure I agree, but the writer is spot on about the innumerable times TFG 'beat the rap,' so to speak. One counterargument is that justice does move slowly, and it does, but it doesn't forget or give up either.

    It did make me wonder if in fact the 'big announcement' isn't campaigning, but something Twitter related. Maybe TFG fellated Musk enough to get readmitted to Twitter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,790 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Yeah thats the huge headache for the RNC right now. Do they let Trump go forth unopposed and basically give up on the White House in 2024. It is not an appealing strategy but if they can hold their noses it will be the electorate who finish Trump off and that would suit them given that they dont know how to do it themselves. They had their chance at his impeachment and they shirked it, then they had another chance right after Jan 6th to cut him loose and they shirked that too. It would suit the RNC down to the ground to let the electorate do the job for them. It would mean giving up on the 2024 WH but once Trump is a two time election loser then he is off the main stage for good and the Republican party can start afresh.

    The alternative to that is that the RNC fight Trump by backing de Santis but that results in the party being split down the middle and ineffective in 2024 anyway. The primary debates between Trump and de Santis would be like some kind of extreme bloodsports and no matter who emerged victorious they will have totally turned off the 10% of independent, swing and moderate voters they need to convince in a Presidential election.

    In any case de Santis doesnt strike me as having the balls to take on Trump no matter what the polls are showing. Trump has already been barbing him with the de Santimonious stuff and he had no response. It is clear that like all others in the Republican party that he is completely scared of Trump going full scorched earth on him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    I suppose my ignorance on how it all works is probably showing so you are probably right and it's more complex than I think.

    I was just coming from what I see in the conservative media and conservative places online. They are already pivoting away from Trump to DeSantis. Its not a problem from them who they have to support, they've shown they'll support the lowest of the low to 'own the libz'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,667 ✭✭✭✭briany


    They can try to pivot away from Trump, but it comes down to what kind of response that generates.

    It isn't the first time that US conservative media has floated this idea of breaking from Trump, but it fell flat on its face.

    I do not yet see any big polling evidence that the Republican base is ready to move on from Trump.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Just days after winning his seat again Mike Lee shows up at federalist society and has the whole place roaring at his Trump impersonation and mockery


    dog eat dog



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,692 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Like in theory it should be easy to attack Trump on his dreadful record on Covid with hundreds of thousands of preventable American deaths, more than in any American war. But the MAGAs believe that Trumps response to Covid was the best in the world ever

    DeSantis actually has a basis for appealing to the MAGAs by attacking Trump on covid from the (libertarian) right and claiming he was the true 'Trumpist'.

    Assuming he runs, DeSantis would love for the campaign to be fought on the ground of who pushed lockdowns harder in 2020. 



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't think Republican campaigns are fought on policy grounds in general anymore. Trump has never been consistent in his policies and it just doesn't matter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,630 ✭✭✭✭martingriff




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    And I'll hold my hands up that I'm basing it on the crazies online suddenly pivoting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I know. And it probably has Trump screaming about a stolen electron.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,103 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Lee was one of his henchman for the Jan 6 insurrection 'mechanism.' I'm surprised he got away with whatever he was up to, but the committee's not finished.


    Interestingly, this cycle the Democratic candidate running against him was Evan McMullin, who ran against TFG in 2020 (as an independent, and did poorly.) Utah's solidly GQP though, so McMullin didn't have much chance. Still, Lee seems dodgy enough even coming from such a strong religioius backround as Utah politics. Utah was always kind of a weird place to be if you weren't LDS. 3:2 beer on the ski slopes, dirty looks if you swore in public, and the BYU campus was something out of "Leave it to Beaver." Painfully cleancut.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,094 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    It would be pretty funny if at his big rally he came out as a fully gay man. The MAGA supporters would be broken and CNN would be speechless…they would be forced to cheerlead his coming out….most likely he announces that he is running for President though



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,871 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I'm sure like most people who run for President it was a life-long ambition for Obama and something that he knew that he was going to do at some stage. However I do believe that in 2004, before he had even begun his job as a Senator, would have believed that 2008 was way too early.

    In his book he says that his initial plan was to get some experience in the Senate and probably run at a later stage. However, in early 2006 Harry Reid told him "10 years in the Senate won't make you a better candidate" and then later on Ted Kennedy said to him:

    You don't choose the time. The time chooses you. Either you seize what may turn out to be the only chance you have, or you decide you're willing to live with the knowledge that the chance had passed you by


    Obama ran in 2008 even though he knew he'd have to take on the Clinton machine to do so and was considered a massive underdog.

    DeSantis has to take his chance now. Who knows what the world will be like in 4 years time. If he doesn't do it now then that'll count against him in the future. Some other candidate could emerge. 2 years ago Andrew Cuomo was being talked about as a future Presidential candidate. Now he's done for. 4 years ago Rishi Sunak was a political nobody. Now he's Prime Minister of the UK.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,692 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Yeah but he must stand for something in the minds of his supporters; he's not just 'the guy off the telly'. And if DeSantis can plausibly make the case to the Republican base that he is as or more committed to the same sort of things as Trump he has a good chance of winning over a majority of them.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    He stands for being Trump. It is entirely a movement around his personality and when he changes what he stands for, his supporters change their deeply held beliefs about what is important.

    Obviously there is massive scope for me being wrong here, but I don't think policy is going to differentiate anyone from Trump or win over any of his hardcore support. They don't care about reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,887 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    That's why people called his a cult of personality.

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    I wonder if the GOP are still entertaining the idea of installing trump as speaker of the house, remember that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    As Podge said, it's very much a cult of personality now in Trump circles. I don't personally know any Trumpists but I'd wager that if you asked a batch of MAGA people about whether they're Trumpists or Republicans, most of them would say that they're Trumpists. It's not as simple as the GOP ditching Trump and gathering around someone else that stands for Trump's policies. As has been mentioned, Trump was a Democrat until about a decade ago.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,630 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Not too sure if this should be on this thread but can the Republican party really back DeSantis too hard. If he sees the party that they see him as the one to save him, could he see himself as a GOD and grap the party like Trump did



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,289 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I don't think it can be understated how damaging these election results are to Donald Trump.

    He explicitly backed all the election deniers for the express purpose of helping him win in 2024.

    His ability to win was heavily predicated on having people like Lake and Mastriano in place in key swing States, where they could directly influence election results or where they would be open to accepting whatever nonsense legal agreement he put out to overturn a result etc.

    He has none of that now.. every single one of his acolytes fly beaten in the swing States.

    His one narrow pathway to a 2024 victory is gone and I think he knows it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    Cut scene to Trump announcing 2024 presidential run.

    Arrested Development voice over: he didn't know it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,887 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    I remember a while back calling DJT one of the biggest (bigly?) Losers in American politics and a poster or two taking issue.


    I presume that dispute is now resolved?

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,103 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    It's pretty clear he can't win an election when you must capture a majority of votes. Nor does his influence help in those.

    He did win 1 election though. Unlike, say, Stacey Abrams :(



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,667 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I hope you're right, but one thing that remains troubling is how much MAGA can infiltrate the electoral process at lower volunteer levels. The other thing is that this election subversion does not begin and end with Trump and his copycats. You have other actors out there, like Steve Bannon, who are happy to chip away at confidence in the electoral process. They won't stop trying to achieve their aims just because Trump goes away. Bannon has appealed to MAGA crazies to get involved in the elections under the premise of election security, and has made it known that this is what he wants to do, which decreases election confidence on the other side. He's seen American democracy shook in 2020 and is determined to keep lighting fires around its foundation until it falls and he's absolutely laughing at the slap on the wrist he was given for his refusal to testify in the 6/1 hearings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    Just saw a clip of an interview with Clinton's former press secretary, who made a very good point about the future of Trump that's been mentioned here also. The GOP will continue to hitch their cart to Trump because they can't afford to sacrifice the vote of the right wing scum he's brought into the party - Proud Boys, Oathkeepers, racists. Plus, the extra hardcore percentage of voters that only want to vote for Trump. Trump may be possibly the most consistent loser in the history of US politics but he won't be going anywhere anytime soon. I'd give it a month before the Republicans in Congress (after complaining about the midterms for a couple of weeks) are back solidly behind the Trump 2024 idea.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,667 ✭✭✭✭briany


    That's not really much of an insight at this stage, or it shouldn't be. Until the Republican grassroots turn on Trump, the Republican party officials cannot do much against him. All they can do, as we have seen, is float a few boats of this idea of turning away from Trump and see what kind of a reaction they get.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,289 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Him knowing he can't win and him running for his personal benefit are two different things.

    He'll still announce his run because he thinks it helps him with his legal issues and depending on how badly his legal issues go, he may then try to parlay his stepping aside into pardons and concessions to protect him and his money



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 36,719 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    I think the vast, vast majority of those people though would vote for the GOP candidate regardless, because regardless of how pro-Trump they are, they're also staunchly anti-Dems, and they wouldn't want Dems in power. I doubt even most of them would abstain if its not Trump.



This discussion has been closed.
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