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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Think about it for a moment, if the Russians are willing to hit the Moffat pipeline, then what would stop them from hitting your LNG terminal too or even LNG ships at sea.

    It sure is but it's a lot easier to discreetly hit a subsea pipeline given the hidden nature of it. The Nord Stream explosions were much easier to accomplish underwater than anything on the surface.

    If you are truly worried about security, then continuing to import a fossil fuel that needs to be shipped around the world and comes at least partly from places like Saudi Arabia, really isn't changing anything.

    Indeed but it also comes from countries other than Saudi Arabia, and LNG is far more fungible than pipeline gas.

    If we need more gas, I'd rather we developed and explored our own gas fields as mentioned above, then desperately trying to import more LNG. Hell maybe even fracking within Ireland would be an option.

    Completely agree on this point but try explaining that to the Minister responsible who doesn't seem to be able to understand these concepts.

    Long term though, the only way we get to true security of supply is using wind + hydrogen (+ solar/batteries/geothermal/biogas), only then would all of our energy production be within our own borders and not reliant on foreign powers for fossil fuels!

    Most of these technologies are not yet proven at scale sufficiently to be able to rely on them and it's effectively gambling if we are to place long term dependence on them. Long term Ireland has massive opportunities for domestic energy and export but that's years away yet and we'll still need something to serve our interests when the wind doesn't blow or at night. I'd much rather be using LNG in the Ballylongford gas fired power plant than Moneypoint or the HFO stations as are being used at present. Agree also about fertiliser, long term if we can get the offshore wind right we could actually be an attractive place to locate heavy industry due to cheap energy. Look at BASF and co looking to reduce operations in Germany due to energy costs. Imagine what that could do for geographic inequality as at present also, we could be opening large scale heavy industry in rural areas on the west coast. Wouldn't that be fantastic

    BTW On this point, I'd disagree, on the contrary, this war has caused closer ties between European neighbours. NATO is now stronger then ever, revitalised and with Sweden and Finland joining. Europe has done a fantastic job in quickly weaning itself off Russian gas, filling up storage, neighbouring countries supplying electricity across interconnectors with each other to relieve the burden, etc. Hell even Britain has eased off on all the Brexit stuff and is reconizing that we are all in this together.

    Agreed on this re: NATO. But the togetherness of the transatlantic alliance has depended on the political situation in the US which has been very pro-NATO in the Democrats holding the House/Senate/Presidency in the last 2 years. That'll be coming to an end fairly shortly and who knows what the ramifications will be. The presumed next House Speaker has already made noise about reducing funding to Ukraine ('we have our own issues at home'), so the current setup isn't guaranteed long term with a more unpredictable US. Also, my "happy family" comment was more to do with the world as a whole, rather than NATO/the West. Europe has done a good job but for the next few winters we're only one long cold snap away from shortages. It's been unseasonably mild in continental Europe this winter so far which has enabled filling up storage as you say. But a cold January/February and a largely depleted gas storage presents new issues for winter 2023. Britain has indeed cooled down for now but the issue here isn't the here and now it's the black swans and the long term unpredictably which has become normal over the last few years that needs us to rethink our long term energy security imo.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Most of these technologies are not yet proven at scale sufficiently 

    Eh? All of them have



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Have you got any links to these being deployed at scale without fossil fuels for backup and not being heavily subsidised? I'd love to read up on them if you do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,941 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Security of supply does not mean in the event of WW3 or a strike on moffat - any number of issues could occur to impact the flow or purchasing of gas from Norway to here. The fact remains that having all our eggs in one basket is not good for a number of reasons.

    Development of our own fields is the most preferable option, but after that an LNG terminal absolutely should be considered. And the idea that if it doesnt bring gas prices down (based on current prices) that it shouldnt be built is silly - plenty of strategic infrastructure is loss making or not directly profitable.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    "Security of supply does not mean in the event of WW3 or a strike on moffat - any number of issues could occur to impact the flow or purchasing of gas from Norway to here. The fact remains that having all our eggs in one basket is not good for a number of reasons."

    The point is that there are 3 LNG terminals in the UK, if Moffat is running, then we can just as easily import LNG through those terminals as we can our own.

    BTW In case folks haven't heard, Rough has already been reopened and has already been filled to 20%, it will likely go much higher given the very mild weather and extremely cheap current spot prices.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Thats not what you said so I'll let you lash away at googling it as I don't fancy keeping track of moving goalposts



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    "It sure is but it's a lot easier to discreetly hit a subsea pipeline given the hidden nature of it. The Nord Stream explosions were much easier to accomplish underwater than anything on the surface."

    To be clear, a strike on Moffat or the Norway pipelines will simply lead to a massive strike by Nato against Russia and they know it.

    No one is buying Russia's bullshit and the "discreteness" is irrelevant, it would be a strike on vital European and NATO infrastructure and would thus trigger Article 5.

    Everyone knows that the Nordstream explosions were Russia, but are ignoring it because they weren't operating anyway, are partly owned by Russia and Europe will never again buy gas from Russia anyway, so largely irrelevant.

    "so the current setup isn't guaranteed long term with a more unpredictable US"

    But if the US is going to become increasingly unpredictable, then increasing reliance on US (and Saudi) LNG is hardly a good idea, right?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    BTW In case folks haven't heard, Rough has already been reopened and has already been filled to 20%, it will likely go much higher given the very mild weather and extremely cheap current spot prices.

    I think it's just reopened and able to fill to 20% capacity but I'm open to correction on this.

    But if the US is going to become increasingly unpredictable, then increasing reliance on US (and Saudi) LNG is hardly a good idea, right?

    The US maybe becoming unpredictable in its willingness to defend the rules based international order of its own making, but a Republican dominated US will be predictable on one thing at least: its love of fossil fuels and in that regard LNG should be a fairly safe bet from the US (provided it doesn't begin to impact too much on domestic supply but I don't think the GOP would turn down opportunities for more drilling



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Perhaps I should have been clear from day 1, if it requires fossil fuel back up and large subsidies it's not really a runner for our long term energy mix at present.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Also keep in mind, if we did decide to get a FSRU, it would be at the very least 3 to 4 years before it would be in place. All the existing FSRU's have been bought/rented by Germany and other mainland European countries for obvious reasons. So we would have to order a new one to be built from scratch

    Note often they are built by converting existing LNG ships, so this would result in one less LNG ship brining gas to the UK, etc.

    So an LNG terminal or FSRU will do nothing to help with out current gas issues or if Russia decided to blow up Moffat in the morning.

    We really should be looking at how we secure our energy supply long term.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That criteria applies to every generation source as all sources have multiple back-ups in the grid of varying generation sources and all get subsidies/guaranteed prices. There are no sources in our grid that criteria does not apply to



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,785 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The interconnection is not all owned by GNI. Anyone can import gas on the GNI owned interconnector, GNI don’t trade in gas at all. The local distribution network is a monopoly no matter who owns the intake points.

    The LNG terminal operator and the shipper are going to take the difference between the LNG price and the price of onshore gas as a profit for themselves. They are not going to pass the saving on to the punter.

    re how other countries do it, they build an appropriate number of terminals to meet requirements. They avoid over-serving the area, especially when gas demand is expected to decline. They also build storage to cover gaps in supply.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,997 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Please explain what power sources won't need fossil fuels or subsidies in the short term in an Irish context. We don't have enough hydro or geothermal.

    According to that those tree hugging hippies over at the IMF - Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion or 6.8 percent of GDP in 2020 and are expected to increase to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025

    This means that taking the lower GNI value of €84,435.10 million last quarter we could move €23 billion a year worth of subsidies from fossil to renewables annually. Using GDP and 7.4% would give €35Bn a year. Hidden subsidies are still subsidies.




    Germany and the UK process vast amounts of hydrogen in petrochemical plants. Handling and transporting amounts of the stuff and distances directly comparable to total gas use on the Irish grid. Natural gas containing hydrogen has been stored underground for hundreds of millions of years.

    Production of hydrogen from water using electricity was a thing a hundred years ago. Heavy Water was a bi-product and a major concern during WWII.

    Burning hydrogen in a gas turbine requires that you either buy special ones off the shelf or wait until they've modified the combusters in the current generation of 300MW+ turbines to handle the extra gas volumes (CCGT has roughly the same efficiency as fuel cells but probably cheaper if you need GW's) . It should be noted that our gas power stations hold a weeks supply of fuel oil in case gas gets cut off, gas turbines are multi fuel.

    Fuel cells were used on the Apollo moon missions 50 years ago. Proven tech.

    It's hard to give costs because they keep falling. £150 for 100MW hydrolyser setup for Felixstowe port for 2026. The Rough Gas Storage facility could hold 30TWh of natural gas, they closed it to save £75m a year. It's since reopened.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,173 ✭✭✭plodder



    The interconnection is not all owned by GNI. Anyone can import gas on the GNI owned interconnector, GNI don’t trade in gas at all. The local distribution network is a monopoly no matter who owns the intake points.

    Well, the issue for Shannon LNG was they wanted to import gas without using the interconnector, but they were still expected to subsidise it by paying whatever levy that other importers pay. I asked before what has changed, and nobody had an answer, but maybe there is so much profit to be made from LNG now, that they are happy to pay it?

    The LNG terminal operator and the shipper are going to take the difference between the LNG price and the price of onshore gas as a profit for themselves. They are not going to pass the saving on to the punter.

    That depends on how the market is setup, but suppose it is the case, then presumably LNG infrastructure is not a cost that the consumer has to bear. It funds itself because it's just sourcing the product so much cheaper. And if it's the case that LNG operators have to pay the GNI interconnector charge then that means it's not affecting GNI's costs so what's the problem? We would have a third source of gas at no cost to the consumer.

    re how other countries do it, they build an appropriate number of terminals to meet requirements. They avoid over-serving the area, especially when gas demand is expected to decline. They also build storage to cover gaps in supply.

    That doesn't answer how they manage the difference in price from different sources. Like I said above, someone should look into it independently. The energy review we just had wasn't given the right terms of reference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,785 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The issue you refer to was resolved some time ago I think. They will not have to make a contribution towards the interconnector.

    what you say about profit potentially covering capital costs of terminal is true. The problem is that regular consumers will still have to pay for the interconnector, whether is used or not.

    at the same time, there are or will soon be many LNG terminals upstream of the interconnector.

    I agree in principle about importance of economic analysis. The problem with that is that the case for an LNG security is not really economic, it’s in relation to energy security if the interconnector sonehow goes out of actio. No one is claiming that an LNG terminal will save consumers money. It will inevitably be an extra cost for consumers to bear.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If anyone is particularly bored, take a look at the IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 report. Its 524 pages but goes into massive detail on world energy prospects for the next few years and takes a close look at the Russian impact or rather the loss of Russian supplies.

    I was going to post some snippets, but to be honest there's too much in it



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Not really, the question was phrased to garner that response.

    If it was phrased as

    • "Do you support the development of a Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Kerry to allow Ireland to purchase the most expensive gas supplies for the next 40+ years and lock the country into gas usage instead of transitioning away from fossil fuel usage?"

    Then you would see the same %'s in reverse



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    A short interview with Eamonn Ryan in which he makes the following points

    • Offshore wind auctions to commence before the end of the year
    • This years auctions will be primarily off the East coast (one project off the west coast)
    • Next year and future auctions will be primarily off the southern and west coasts
    • 700MW new solar and wind built in the last year
    • Announcement due soon on the replacement developer for Equinor for the Moneypoint offshore project. Several have approached ESB and the ESB are assessing their options




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,173 ✭✭✭plodder


    I think the question asked was fair and neutral. Your alternative is nonsensical. Why would LNG be the "most expensive" and why would it "lock the country into gas usage instead of transitioning away from fossil fuel usage"?



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,997 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It takes a lot of energy to cool methane to -160 degrees and ships and port facilities cost money so it's more expensive than nautral gas through the existing pipeline. The same ships could use the existing LNG facilities in the UK which would free up North Sea gas for our use.

    We are planning to reduce emissions by 80% by 2030. So why would we need LNG ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,173 ✭✭✭plodder


    It takes a lot of energy to cool methane to -160 degrees and ships and port facilities cost money so it's more expensive than nautral gas through the existing pipeline.

    What you mean is that the processing costs are higher, but if the raw material such as gas from the US is much cheaper (as it is) than piped gas from Europe then that more than compensates for the processing costs.

    The same ships could use the existing LNG facilities in the UK which would free up North Sea gas for our use.

    We are planning to reduce emissions by 80% by 2030. So why would we need LNG ?

    The bottom line is that this is a private sector investment. Why do we care whether it works or fails now or in ten years time? Is it because we want gas to be as expensive as possible for ideological reasons right now?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    LNG is the most expensive option when it comes to gas.

    One example, but there are many reports and studies that all, without exception, say the same thing

    https://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/lng/article/14178621/pipeline-far-cheaper-than-lng-for-moving-norways-arctic-gas-volumes



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    How can the auctions commence when none of them have planning yet??



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Funny how the wind bluffers are targeting LNG on the basis of "saving consumers money" given the gouging these very same consumers have got from companies claiming to supply 100% wind energy etc.🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,173 ✭✭✭plodder


    Obviously pipelines are cheapest for moving European gas, but we're talking about alternative supplies such as cheap US gas. And we're going to need alternatives for the foreseeable future.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    My point is, there is no such thing as cheap LNG. It's expensive at every point in the process so tying our grid into that doesn't make sense especially when you look at the time frame.

    The Shannon application is with ABP who won't give a decision until after the Energy Security Review is completed, likely Q1/Q2 next year.

    Let's say ABP approves in Apr 2023. Next you will have the legal challenges, which will take roughly 4-5 years, so you're looking at 2027/2028.

    If everything is successful for the application, construction would start 12-24 months after the last legal decision (need time to find contractor with availability, materials, agree costs etc) so you're looking at 2030 for a start date and likely a 2032 completion date.

    As mentioned we are aiming for 80% renewable energy by 2030.

    So we'd end up with a LNT facility that was years behind schedule, using the most expensive gas supply and looking to make a profit so would have to feed those costs to the consumer and would be supplying an ever decreasing amount into the grid as demand melts away.

    You also have to remember that Shannon had planning permission for 10 years that was never used, you'd have to wonder why.

    To be honest I can't see any private LNG ever being built as I don't see any viable business case for one.

    A govt subsidised one, maybe but that's a whole other kettle of fish



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,981 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Because we are not going to reduce emissions by 80% by 2030.

    How's the heat pump retrofit target looking?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,981 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    It's not as expensive as no gas and the rest of Europe don't agree with you.

    "“Around 25 new FSRUs, according to estimates from S&P Global Platts, are now expected to be installed across the EU in the coming years, with the first facilities set to be operational already by the end of 2022 facilitated by a combination of political and commercial will in accelerating work,” Illardo said.

    “Germany in particular, arguably the EU state most impacted by Russian natural gas disruptions, has accelerated LNG developments in recent months with new regulatory initiatives that include a new law designed to accelerate the approval process for new LNG import terminals and lower feed-in tariffs at LNG terminals,” Illardo added." https://www.rigzone.com/news/europe_rushing_to_install_new_lng_import_facilities-29-aug-2022-170138-article/

    Of course if ER would stop preventing the search for and exploitation of NG, perhaps the issue of energy security and need for an LNG terminal would be less acute.

    That energy security report is going to be a hoot.



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