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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,901 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    why is there an assumption that someone who disagrees with the doom sayers has a vested interest?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Just because the CB increases the amount allowed, doesn't mean the banks will allow it does it? Would they not go case by case?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,702 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    There is no reason for the CB to this unless they have been bribed by developers. Well bloody sure i am going SF. Really hope they destroy this economy for the pigs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,299 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Read a few articles recently that a lot of builders weren't starting new projects due to a variety of factors making it uneconomical. The 3 bed semi that was uneconomical at e330k has now gone to e365k overnight n the concrete is getting poured again. The government couldn't care less about affordability as long as they can say that more houses are being built than last year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    Why do you present any negative comment as doom-saying? This specific piece of news will keep prices higher than the market would otherwise have dictated they be. That is good for some, bad for many others. Should not be difficult.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Heard some economist (there seem to be so many these days) on the radio this morning talking about this.

    One line that stuck out was. "House prices are the same now as they were a decade and a half ago." :)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You'd imagine with rising interest rates many people will just fail the other stress tests if trying for 4x salary



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Yes, they have their own criteria, this will only make a difference where people have affordability by all other methods but were ruled out on LTI (the lowest /most stringent LTI in Europe). Paying high rent for years for example is proven affordability that someone can pay half that rent in a mortgage payment, but they could still get blocked from getting a mortgage by an LTI cap in spite of the proven affordability, passing stress testing etc.

    They have been on to the CBoI about this for a long time and now they've decided that making it less hard for renters to buy, in a market with no rental units, might not be such a bad thing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,322 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    He was replying to the following post

    Who after @SwimClub gave an analysis of what was happening declared he had a vested interest.

    Anyway they are not doomsayers they are Chicken Lickens flapping around for the last eight years screaming ''the sky is falling in''.

    Just hope nobody took there advice over that time and gave up a purchase and is now squeezed out of the market

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    We have a government policy that operates to take them in and pile them high, treating them as second class citizens; the Irish dream or something like that. Who cares about Ukranians or south American students, they should be lucky to be allowed into the country - that is how government policy comes across. I am, in fact, on the side of refugees and immigrants, preferring to offer them a good quality of life and not whore them out as profit margin widening, tax revenue contributing worker drones. Until we get our housing market in order with materially and substantially lower costs, those coming here are being forced to live in a state that is barely above the poverty line.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    SwimClub said this:

    ""What I think most people would agree we want and you have in housing in more stable long term markets like France are prices that go up with or a bit above long term inflation every year and give a good rental yield.

    We are up around 2% on prices 15 years ago, so well below inflation increases."

    Quite aside from how utterly disingenuous the comparison to 2007 prices is, the above is reflective of what he wants from the market. So, it's not some kind of unsubstantiated accusation on my part, I was just pointing out it didn't require 16 paragraphs to say "this works for me".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭pinksoir


    But this won't do anything to help those who are stuck renting. If you were getting outbid by folk at 3.5x you'll be outbid by the same people at 4x. All it's doing is rapidly raising the baseline house price and thus the barrier to entry.

    You will also need a larger deposit for your 10%, something that becomes easier to achieve when you have a higher income. So the gap will only widen further.

    I'm not sure whether this is incompetence or a cynical move to create higher levels of debt in the population. At some point it becomes indistinguishable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    No, it's what any investor wants and what we all want from the market to increase supply, reduce homelessness etc.

    Unless you have 100 billion sitting down the back of the couch you are willing to invest at current rental yields to help housing supply?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    That's a supply issue, which is what they are justifying this on, inflation impact on the cost of building.

    If there is more supply then the competition and price reduces as the people on higher salaries all buy and the market starts to clear.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭pinksoir


    Absolutely it's a supply issue. But the reason that costs are so high for building in Dublin, for example, are because of land prices, not building costs per se. So what do you think will happen when people have access to more credit? Do you think that land prices will remain static?

    Never mind the fact that barely any new housing at all has been built in Dublin (besides swathes of btl apartments), and that what has been built has generally already been at the much higher end of the market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    No, unfortunately not and to explain why not I would just point out the massive concentration risk with respect to our tax take which is heavily focused and reliant on corporate taxes that are unfortunately themselves utterly dominated by a few hyper large MNCs that are paying corporate taxes not even based on Irish activities.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,901 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I wonder did that research come across the fact that those European markets are far more bubblier than ours and this one measure instantly brings us to those levels at the absolute top of the market.

    This allowed a system where wealthy institutions hoovered up property knowing people were constrained in bidding when they were somewhat affordable, now these constraints are being removed when investment funds need to offload and de-risk.

    This one act is the greatest act of legalised robbery by the wealthiest on the working citizens of this country


    Do other countries have 0 tax for the wealthiest investors, FTB grants, shared ownership BS,

    Don't be stooge for a system that is robbing our children blind. Did you read the first article from the indo on the public consultation. The vast majority of respondents said there should be no change. It's the minority that are milking the system that are dictating policy. That minority are extremely wealthy, powerful and traditionally bankrolling the political parties currently in power



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,901 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Those apartments were priced in an environment that assumed 0 interest rates was the new normal. The state should not be buying them as they are completely unviable hence the investment funds pulling the plug on funding them.

    Property needs to adjust to the new normal, while that is happening the state can build on there own land with the surplus labour

    Your question is like saying cutting off my hand is good because cutting off my arm would be worse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,901 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The Central bank cannot justify a decision on concerns regarding the supply of housing as that has nothing to do with their remit

    This is pure vested interest and political interference.

    It's a rinse and repeat of the shared ownership, where all independent advise was ignored

    Somebody put kwasi kwarteng and lizz truss on notice as this is the only country that would employ their skillset right now and pay them more



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭SwimClub


    Well everyone has to justify their decisions and it's high risk to be accused of unnecessarily worsening a situation (with the most stringent borrowing constraint in Europe) that might lead to a market crash, as many on here seem to be hoping for.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭pleh


    Second time buyers only need 10% deposit.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 5,091 Mod ✭✭✭✭GoldFour4


    Some of the rule changes make sense to me. I.e. divorced or separated people being first time buyers as well as lessening the 20% deposit requirement for second time buyers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭pinksoir


    The divorced stuff makes sense, but the rest, the more I think about it, is just so ill thought out. I'm actually astounded by it.

    Post edited by pinksoir on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    To quote "he who shall not be named"; The boom is getting boomer". Funny to read back on this article from 2017 and I can't help but think

    Talk of the economic recovery being a "Phoenix miracle" has made it to Dundrum Town Centre, but even in the country's biggest shopping centre the view among shoppers is that the term is not a proper fit. "I heard that the other day," says a surprised Anna Howard, outside the House of Fraser department store, referring to the phrase used last week by Central Bank chief economist Gabriel Fagan. 


    The term "Phoenix miracle" is not Fagan's; it was coined by Guillermo Calvo, the Argentine-American economics professor at Columbia University in New York, to describe an economy that rises rapidly from the ashes of recession, creating new jobs and attracting new investment but without any rise in debt.


    Calvo conceived the model after analysing the Asian economic crises of the 1990s, and spotted that the US experienced a similar recovery after the Great Depression with plenty of growth but no new credit. Sitting in a boardroom of the Central Bank's swanky new offices on the north quays in Dublin, Fagan says that his intention was not to create a new term to rival the overused "Celtic Tiger" or even the more recent "Celtic Phoenix" of fictional Irish Times columnist Ross O'Carroll-Kelly. "It was just simply to say, when we look at the economy, this is a phenomenon that has been observed elsewhere."


    “If you use a strict definition, yes, we have seen the stock in credit fall, and yet the economy is growing,” says Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers.


    “But it is a little bit dangerous because it may bring about an attitude that everything is very rosy whereas if you look at where the risks are at the moment there are still significant ones. It is somewhat dangerous as to what it does to the psychology of thinking around how sustainable the recovery is.”


    The shortage of new housing units after years of inactivity in the construction sector lays bare one of the biggest problems facing the economy. The Housing Agency has said that 81,000 new homes are needed by 2020 to meet projected demand. Just under 15,000 new homes were completed last year, and work began on another 13,234 homes, so the country is falling well short.


    This explains why house prices are increasing so quickly in an illiquid market and why average rents rose 13.5 per cent in 2016 – their highest level on record – and are climbing faster since property website Daft.ie first began tracking rental prices in 2002.There is still also a heavy debt hangover in Irish households from the boom and bust as they continue to try to solve past mistakes.


    While the recovery is broadly based in that jobs are being created in sectors across the economy, it has not been evenly spread. The majority of the new jobs created over the last four years are higher-skilled positions, being filled by candidates with third-level qualification.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,901 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I think it's worth noting the results of the public consultation that led to this decision and how the output differed from those results

    The Central Bank conducted a public consultation on the rules last year with a survey as part of this process showing most people saying the rules were working as intended and that they should be a feature of the market going forward.

    Only about one-in-10 renters who took part in the online survey said the limits were keeping them from taking out a mortgage.

    Instead, most cited high house prices and the difficulties of raising a deposit as the main barriers to home ownership.

    Cairn Homes CEO Michael Stanley, who runs Ireland’s largest housebuilder, said in in the past that the Government’s Housing For All plan was at risk because up to 500,000 middle-income earners were locked out of finance by the strict lending rules.

    It's clear that high prices and high rents are the key blocker in renters raising the deposit to purchase. The central bank make those issues worse

    Edit just in case, the Judas politicians blame the public for going mad or nobody could have seen it coming



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    There is not enough housing, hence demand outstrips supply, hence prices became unaffordable.

    There are only two ways of looking at why there is not enough housing. Either that there are too many extra people, or that there are not enough extra homes.

    The word "extra" is of the highest importance, as neither the amount of housing or amount of people were a problem before. This is an issue that has been created out of thin air.


    What side you fall on with this issue is a matter of logic and reasoning ability.

    Consider a similar status quo situation where the problem must be created; the antarctic. No housing supply issues, not too many people. Some government sends 1000 people to the antarctic, but shock ensues as there is nowhere for them to live. Now, what is the fundamental problem?

    Is it that there isn't enough housing, that there should be gigantic pressure put on the government to build more housing in an extremely difficult environment? Should all attention and effort be put on housing solutions? Should one try to steer the cart with the horse behind?

    Or, should the question be raised to its due importance as to why a thousand people showed up in the antarctic without any suitable accommodation?


    Therefore, the likes of this loosening of financial restrictions is utterly amazing in the face of the issue. It reeks to high hell of a last squeeze and will lead to an even more tattered country.

    Ignorance, most willful, is the problem in this place, a complete failure to engage with reality. There'll be very few people who didn't see this coming after the fact, with fewer still that dared to point it out beforehand. But everyone knows the story, despite the facade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Whats not being said here is that 3.5 times salaries wont pay what the builders have to get for houses to build and make a profit.

    Its an effort to keep building going. It wont keep going when people are frozen out when houses have to be sold above a certain amount.

    People who arent effected by the cap arent interested in the houses that the builders need to sell in volume. They are only interested in detatched houses in nice areas these days so the new builds wont be sold to them. Again a results of ill thought out policy in the past number of years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    I think that the lack of supply is the main issue, that is the central argument everyone agrees on. I believe the government purposely acts to keep supply way below what is needed as appropriate supply would force down house prices and rents, which is not what the government wants. I also believe that our current supply issue, without necessarily building a lot of new houses, could resolve itself in a manner similar to 09-12 and this is not something many people would agree with; demand dramatically dissipating; but I believe it can so dissipate which would in a large way resolve certain supply problems. What, in particular, I am referring to is the lack of demand for rentals and houses at a certain price point which has been reached at the same time we are about to undergo a significant economic shock in the country.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17 ghostofchrimbo


    While people fret as to how to build antarctic housing, everyone ignores why it has to built in the first place. Insanity.

    The bald ignorance required to evade such bare truth has been going on for many, many years.

    This is not incompetence. One can make a mistake. One can make two, even three. But to achieve the same exact mistake again and again, in the same way, with the same result ad infinitum is purposeful.

    Time will prove this practical criminality, there'll be tribunals in some years to come. Would there be a one person surprised?



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