BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? threadbans in OP

18-10-2022 02:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119760860#Comment_119760860

presuming there is any left after Theresa May consumed it by the wagon load over the past two years.

ancapailldorcha · 18-10-2022 02:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119761086#Comment_119761086

If you knew your bank was going to implode you'd be doing everything you could to get as much of your capital out of there as possible. Same thing is at play here. Government bonds tend to be seen as very safe investments as they give yields (which should be low) and they're from what is supposed to be a reliable agent, HM government. The government issues them so it can borrow and investors get a low risk, low return investment, perfect for something like a pension fund.

The Tufton St. tax cut plan was solely about racking up an absurd amount of debt so a handful of billionaires could get handouts. Nothing more. It's beyond daft. If you friend was taking out usurious wonga loans to fund a hedonistic lifestyle, you'd be alarmed. Doubly-so if he owed you cash. You wouldn't bat an eyelid if he'd taken out £60,000 to go study data analytics at a decent Uni though. Debt is debt but not all debt is the same.

To compound this, the government has u-turned. This adds the one thing markets hate most: unpredictability. We (and they) do not know if anything Truss announces from this point will actually be done. This creates an unsafe and risk-loaded environment with a diminished economy and therefore lower chances of growth and returns on investment.

I'm no expert either but hopefully this is somewhat insightful. It's only my limited understanding.

PommieBast · 18-10-2022 03:04PM

@Shelga

So UK government borrowing interest rates were jacked up when the markets panicked at unfounded tax cuts announced in the mini budget, but how has that damage not been undone now they’ve been cancelled?

What markets charge is partly influenced by reputation, and this reputation has now been completely shredded. In other words they have now priced in the apparent incompetence.

Quin_Dub · 18-10-2022 03:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119761086#Comment_119761086

The bottom line is that "The Markets" are based in very large part on emotion and confidence.

They are already nervous about their investments because of the general state of the World and the possible scenarios that might play out.

So when Truss and Kwarteng announced their budget what that immediately did was spook the markets not just because it was a collection of bad ideas , but because what they saw was a UK Government that actually thought they weren't bad ideas.

If Kwarteng & Truss didn't see the problems in what they announced , how would they deal with the next scenario to play out? (like full scale war in Eastern Europe or a collapse in Energy supply for example)

In other words , with the mini-budget announcement they destroyed the markets confidence in the UK's ability to make reasonable budgetary/financial decisions.

The multitude of u-turns since almost reinforces that lack of confidence in their abilities as it shows that they are likely to flip-flop with public opinion.

Hunt's new proposals might calm things down , but they will probably want to actually see proof that the proposals actually come on stream and do as planned/expected.

It's much much easier to scare the markets than it is to calm them down.

Floppybits · 18-10-2022 03:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119760745#Comment_119760745

True dat. We have our own over here as well.

breezy1985 · 18-10-2022 03:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119760900#Comment_119760900

People fool themselves very easily in the battle to get Brexit done/culture wars/chaotic coalition Labour government/anti-British/anti growth league etc.

Just look at the Tory wing of Boards and the knots they tied themselves in to paint the rest of us as idiots, project fear mongers and sore losers for calling what was plain to see.

Muahahaha · 18-10-2022 05:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119760900#Comment_119760900

It bodes really badly for the party that she won, as it indicates the complete lack of talent. But also a complete lack of appreciation in the party as to what makes a good leader

Maybe the Tory party membership who made Truss PM were not voting on who would make a good leader but rather the candidate who was promising them tax cuts. Those on £150k+ were set to benefit by £10k a year under Truss' plans. Who wouldnt vote for the candidate promising an extra £10k in their pockets. Similarily a cut to the corporation tax rate would have helped deliver higher dividends from their share portfolio. Most people vote on economic grounds for themselves and Truss promised them gravy and unicorns and they fell for it.

Hyperbollix · 18-10-2022 06:28PM

Given that Liz Truss was a committed Remainer originally, and like Boris Johnson, switched allegiances when it became expedient for her career, is it possible that she and Kwarteng are actually NOT as committed to the low tax, "Thatcher on steroids" ideology as is being portrayed? The media line on this whole fiasco is that these two right wing zealots threw caution to the wind to implement their life long, dearly held agenda and then were hugely shocked to discover that it couldn't actually work in reality. So now he gets sacked and a new chancellor with a completely different plan becomes de facto PM to fix a mess that Liz and Kwasi just did not see coming...................Does anyone believe this?

From the sacking of Tom Scholar, to sidestepping the OBR, to the champagne reception with hedgefund people in Mayfair, is it not more plausible that what actually happened here was a planned and premeditated crashing of the currency to enable a small coterie of society to make an absolute killing, just as the same people made a killing on Brexit day in 2016. Brexit was a lie from day 1, designed only to enrich the elite of British society and those who do business in the City and hide assets offshore. Why wouldn't the Brexit Ultras who now make up the Tory parliamentary party just use their continued position in government to line their pockets and those of their monied friends and donors? Would elected representatives who actually care about the country and it's population have ever backed Brexit in the first place? I don't think so. So these people obviously don't give a stuff about any of those considerations now. Like the covid ppe and track n trace scandals, it's just another opportunity to enrich yourselves and bill the taxpayer.

amacca · 18-10-2022 06:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119762034#Comment_119762034

A bit too Conspiracy theory for me anyway

Things just don't seem that well planned.

ancapailldorcha · 18-10-2022 06:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119762034#Comment_119762034

Occam's razor: They're actually this f*cking stupid. It really is that simple.

Truss was never committed to anything but Truss. She's just doing whatever the Tufton Street cranks have been advising her to do for their wealthy donors and friends.

FraserburghFreddie · 18-10-2022 07:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119761319#Comment_119761319

Brexit was done nearly three years ago and personally, whilst I agree the tories are a bunch of tw*ts you're not fooling anyone that you aren't anti British.

tanko · 18-10-2022 09:14PM

What was the “urgent business” Truss was on the other day??

Capt'n Midnight · 18-10-2022 09:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119759951#Comment_119759951

Just for comparison. No unfunded projects, no cuts to services, no wealth transfers to the rich.

Lord Buckethead's 2017 Manifesto

The abolition of the Lords (except me).
Full facial coverings to be kept legal, especially bucket-related headgear.
No third runway to be built at Heathrow: where we’re going we don’t need runways.
Ceefax to be brought back immediately, with The Oracle and other Teletext services to be rolled out by the next Parliament.
Regeneration of Nicholson’s Shopping Centre, Maidenhead.
Buckethead on Brexit: a referendum should be held about whether there should be a second referendum.
Nuclear weapons: A firm public commitment to build the £100bn renewal of the Trident weapons system, followed by an equally firm private commitment not to build it. They’re secret submarines, no one will ever know. It’s a win win.
Nationalisation of Adele: in order to maximise the efficient use of UK resources, the time is right for great British assets to be brought into public ownership for the common good. This is to be achieved through capital spending.
A moratorium until 2022 on whether Birmingham should be converted into a star base.
Legalisation of the hunting of fox-hunters.
New voting age limit of 16 to be introduced. New voting age limit of 80 to be introduced too.
Katie Hopkins to be banished to the Phantom Zone.
Stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. Start buying lasers from Lord Buckethead.
Prospective MPs to live in the seat they wish to represent for at least five years before election, to improve local representation in Parliament.
Free bikes for everyone, to help combat obesity, traffic congestion and bike theft.

For Forks Sake · 18-10-2022 10:09PM

This is entirely normal, are none of them capable of independent thought , or are they isistent in repeating the same lines ad nauseum 🙄

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1582410099263275010

The Raging Bile Duct · 18-10-2022 10:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763119#Comment_119763119

I genuinely thought that tweet was a piss take. The mind boggles.

Peregrinus · 19-10-2022 01:12AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119762897#Comment_119762897

A meeting with Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee. The word - the totally unreliable word, I have to say - is that he told her that she was toast, but she would have to stay on as zombie Prime Minister while the party worked out how to replace her in the least damaging way.

Could be completely wrong, of course, but she did look pretty shell-shocked after the meeting.

c.p.w.g.w · 19-10-2022 01:16AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763434#Comment_119763434

If true, would she just not go to the king and ask him to dissolve parliament and then a general election...or at least threaten that

O'Neill · 19-10-2022 01:42AM

I respect those who hold consersative and traditional viewpoints but when it comes to the likes to Braverman, Johnson, Patel, Fabricant...jesus the list the list the endless..who the f**k votes these people in to represent their interests? Utter lowlifes who line their pockets is what these people are. No idea why the likes of Tobias Ellwood is still there tbh.

Peregrinus · 19-10-2022 01:44AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763438#Comment_119763438

That would be an "if I'm going down, I'm taking the party with me" kind of threat. The Tories would inevitably massively lose a general election election, and Truss could not remain as leader after that.

It's a threat she could make, but one the party might call. If they don't remove her as leader, they're going to lose the next election badly; there's no coming back from where she is in the polls. All she is threatening is to accelerate that loss. Which in the mind of some Tories might not be an unmitigated bad thing — the sooner the party gets through the necessary election loss, the sooner they can start the process of self-examination and rebuilding.

All other things being equal, they'd rather defer the election in the hope that the loss they'd suffer in 2024 or even 2025 might be less catastrophic than the loss theyd suffer in 2022. But that hope does depend on replacing Truss and persuading the country that they are on the road back to being a credible party of government. There's no real benefit in deferring the election if the cost of doing so is continuing to be saddled with Truss.

So I think they might call her bluff. The other thing they might do is turf her immediately, and fight the election under a caretaker leader, on the basis that this would at least signal to the electorate that they were serious about intending to reform the party after the election.

19-10-2022 05:46AM

I actually don't imagine that most Tories will join the dots between where they are currently at in the polls and their policy platform

. I genuinely think that most of them will blame all this on an unfortunate series of circumstances. I don't actually believe that they are currently capable of realising that their policy extremism is the problem in the same way that the republicans do not yet seem capable of realising the reasons for their existential crisis.

breezy1985 · 19-10-2022 07:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763453#Comment_119763453

A lot of them are in seats that just vote Tory no matter what.

One of the many dangers of fptp

Peregrinus · 19-10-2022 07:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763516#Comment_119763516

It's a bit of both, isn't it? The Tories have had a succession of appalling leaders who have become very unpopular very quickly, and they have had appalling policies that have inflicted significant harm on the country and its people. And the two are connected; part of what makes the leaders appalling is that they are not averse to appalling policies — they are either too stupid or too delusional to realise that the policies are appalling, or too cynical to care.

They could be in a death spiral. Wishful thinking, maybe, but opinion polls suggest that the country has pretty much woken up to them and they have no chance of winning an election until they can dramatically change the course they are on. That will be difficult because the party is deeply divided. The leadership electorate shows a strong preferences for stupid, delusional and cynical candidates; if they are to get a sane and competent leader they must by-pass the party members and have a coronation without an election. But that requires a unity candidate, and the party is very far from being united; it still has powerful stupid, delusional and cynical factions who must be placated if there is to be leadership coronation. Which means a leader selected in this way may lack the authority and independence needed to rescue the party from those factions.

The UK electoral system is very good at minimising the power of the voter and maximising the power of the party, and that makes for very well-established, well-entrenched political parties. No other European country has political parties whose longevity and electoral dominance is remotely comparable to those of the major UK parties. The UK likes to think that this makes for stable government, but in fact what it does is make for stable parties. That doesn't necessarily make for stable government, as the times we are living in vividly demonstrate.

What it does do, though, in the present circumstances is buy the Tories some time. If they want it, they have up to two years to address their gross dysfunction and set themselves on the road to credibility. But if they don't want to do that, they may spend the two years driving home to the public the message of their thorough unfitness for office. And that could create a space for a sane centre-right party that could replace them in much the way that Labour replaced the Liberals a hundred years ago.

19-10-2022 07:48AM

I actually think that many Tory MPs with connections to finance have known how bad things are for years and have been cashing in on the chaos at every opportunity - even precipitating chaos to create more opportunities to cash in. There has been wholesale offshoring of capitol since the Brexit referendum was anounced and it has accelerated ever since.

This is truly a party of sociopathic disaster capitalist gouls. The fact that a characture such as Rees Mogg is in charge of economic policy when he wrote the book on disaster capitalism is a sure sign that the conservatives as currently constituted do not care a jot for the British.

FraserburghFreddie · 19-10-2022 07:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763644#Comment_119763644

Each ridiculous decision by the tories,each inept leader is another nail in their coffin.As a British person it hurts to see my country like this but if it results in a massive rout for the tories in an inevitable election I'll take that to get rid of them.

BonnieSituation · 19-10-2022 08:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763119#Comment_119763119

She's absolutely tapped.

Leroy42 · 19-10-2022 08:14AM

The saving grace for the Tories is the Labour party. Due to the FPTP system, it really is an either-or choice. And Labour is not giving any reason to vote for them, outside of them not being Tories. At present, that is probably enough, but it is not enough to signal the end of the Tories as Labour seems devoid of ideas on how to actually make things better as the Tories do.

So while I cannot disagree with the current Labour policy of saying and doing nothing and simply letting the Tories destroy themselves, it doesn't create a new way or helps anybody. Labour will get in and face exactly the same fundamental issues that face the Tories. I don't expect them to make such a complete mess of it as the Tories have done, but without an actual plan, without the courage to actually do things differently, Labour will face the same voter apathy.

Brexit required a new way of thinking. It fundamentally changed how the UK saw its future yet the UK hasn't changed how it plans for the future. It is still stuck in exactly the same thinking as was there before, when clearly it needs new radical planning.

19-10-2022 08:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763797#Comment_119763797

DO you really think Labour want to be in power at the moment?

It is far far easier to sit on the sidelines complaining that the government is doing nothing about the economy/cost of living etc etc than it is to actually do anything about it.

It is much better for labour to be on the outside picking off the low hanging fruit than to be in power and let the opposition do it to them.

I agree about the new way of doing things though, I have heard nothing from wither party on the best way forward. The only person that did seem to have a plan, was Dominic Cummings 😒

19-10-2022 08:57AM

But to leave the Tories in power for a day longer will inevitable lead to more rape and pillage of the British population. Surely this is enough motivation for the Labour party to see them out.

Think what they could achieve with a bruising majority of hundreds. However a party that models itself as Tory light is unlikely to achieve anything meaningful in power.

The current Labour party was hand picked by the establishment to not rock the boat in any meaningful way.

ancapailldorcha · 19-10-2022 08:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763797#Comment_119763797

Starmer has put the party on an electoral footing and they've started putting out campaign material. There's no point doing more until an election is called. It's possible that he may be persuaded to adopt a pro-PR policy but we'll have to wait and see. The chumocracy certainly won't so Labour is the only game in town on that front.

I don't get your second point. Criticising the Tories doesn't help anyone struggling with energy bills. Getting someone else into power will. I don't know why you're pretending that Starmer is cut from the same cloth as the idiot PM's the Tory party has undemocratically inflicted upon us.

Brexit is done. It's still FPTP and two parties with some hangers on, the same as it always was.

19-10-2022 09:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119763989#Comment_119763989

no one is being raped or pillaged, you need to stop believing what you read on this forum and use reputable news sources.

BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

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Lord Buckethead's 2017 Manifesto

BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? threadbans in OP