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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 396 ✭✭SummerK




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Even an inflation linked lease agreement for 15-25 years isnt better than bonds if the rate rises will eat into the value of your asset.

    3% annual ROI is great, until you take into account the very real possibility of capital depreciation which will quickly eat into that return



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Some of the rates are huge but likely triggered by the euro swap rates ballooning the past month.

    80-90% LTV five year fixed is now 5.95% so that is them pricing themselves out of the new FTB market for a while. Lowest rate Finance Ireland have now (part owned by the ISIF by the way) is just under 4.5% for 15 year fixed for less than 50% LTV.

    Anyone know if banks allow you keep a fixed rate if you look to trade up? Instincts say "no" so this could result in anyone with more than 5 year fixed mortgages not moving for some time so that might have some market dynamics down the line



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,552 ✭✭✭kaymin


    I presume you're referring to interest rate risk but that doesn't make sense either. The 10 year yield is lower which means the interest rate curve is inverted - this is because the markets are pricing a recession and a drop in interest rates in the future.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    They had a similar story earlier in the year in relation to property in Limerick being purchased at double the market rate. It was similar in that once these properties were tied down to long term leases they effectively doubled in value. I assume this works when interest rates are at 0.

    What happens when they rise sharply will be get out the popcorn moment



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,043 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    of course there is, its either a mistake, tax planning between funds, or something else,

    as you say there is no way anyone would pay more than double for something if there is no need to, but you'll get the usual places and people referring to it and claiming the country has gone mad,

    its shocking joe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,046 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    Seems IKEA are getting into the property game in ireland. However one major difference compared with other funds:


    In a fresh departure from the practice of other institutional investors involved in the supply of social housing, the Ingka Group says it will treat the rental payments it collects as mortgage repayments. This will allow the transfer of all 150 homes to the local authorities in question at the end of the lease term at an estimated zero additional cost.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    The devil will be in the detail; what will the cost of each of these "mortgages" be? Industry led ventures are not prima facie socially conscious and are only pursued for profit! I will be curious to see how much they claim these mortgages are worth in total.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭pinksoir




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    There does seem to be an over focus on labour and material costs on this thread, however as with many things the real savings would come from eliminating the white collar grab that adds no value yet reaps so much of the price

    The solutions are simple when you sit down and breakdown the process



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Cement producers are complaining that domestic energy users are no longer subsidising there energy usage.

    No wonder water charges failed, these bills are just another outlet to tax the ordinary folk for the benefit of the wealthy paying little or no tax

    They included a cement manufacturer, which said production would have to stop, and a mining firm which warned of “existential implications” for operations.

    Others classified by the CRU as large energy users include pharmaceutical and tech companies, food producers and data centres. 




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    We have an apartment and had a great tenant this time. The previous 2 were nightmares. The current tenant is leaving to go home to Poland in next month and over the last couple of months we were on the fence about whether to sell or not.

    We thought there might be easing up of legislation or even tax breaks to help us with the very real risks of letting a property nowadays.

    I think our decision has been made though. We are going tp put it on the market and just get rid. Out of our peers who numbered in the double digits who had property rented out, we are the 2nd last to sell up and get out. I think the writing has been on the wall for a long time now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,586 ✭✭✭newmember2


    Mortgage interest rates are likely to go up in the near-term but are they expected to come back down again in the long-term or are the days of low interest rates now a thing of the past?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    My 2c

    Zero or negative rates are finished. Higher then normalised around the same rate of inflation plus lender markup



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭Blub123


    fooooooook I hate property and estate agents and other buyers and sellers......

    my last 5 months has been consumed by the process

    accidental landlord so gone sale agreed on a rental property

    own PDH sale agreed on same, then buyer decided to reduce offered price despite being sale agreed...back on market...then sale agreed again

    Also looking to purchase a house...been top bidder 3 times, 2 of which the owner withdrew the property from the market, and one of which the bidder withdrew only after been asked -"ok we are the top bidder but you wont accept that - what will you accept....figure given by him.. ..we agreed to meet" and then they withdrew.

    Now have 3 missed calls from estate agent on the phone and I know its caus the buyers of my own place want in and I wont sign the contracts until I have somewhere to move my family.

    Then the wife suggested last night maybe we wait another year.

    foooooook



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    apparently 125000 electric ireland customers are in arrears .. and winter hasn't even properly started yet ..

    if other energy companies have similar arrears it is a sign of where the economy is potentially heading





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,043 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    your posts are awfully uplifting i must say. first thing i thought was i wonder what that figure is like compared to a few years ago?

    did you read the article?

     Pre-pandemic the number in debt was around 150,000.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Rental market is anti tennant and anti private landlord. Reverse evolution



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,806 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    The markets are pricing in interest rate cuts from next year. There's also been a notable shift in recent days with the expectation of significant further rate hikes ebbing away. Time will tell.

    Serious rally in stock markets this week on the back of those expectations.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    This comment made me laugh out load.

    Market rises a little after being relentlessly down. Oh, rates are cutting and its all up from here.

    Its called a sucker rally, there will be plenty and a much bigger ones. Markets have a much bigger drop to do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 299 ✭✭Jmc25


    Some consolation for hard pressed landlords during this trying time of record rents is that at least having been cruelly driven from the market, sale prices are near or have surpassed record levels depending on the area of the country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,636 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Sure that's fine, less than 30 quid each will cover it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,636 ✭✭✭maninasia


    I have been thinking about investing in a small house to rent out. What kind of tenants are the least hassle in terms of they will not suddenly decide to not pay rent and squat in the place for two years?

    How much of a cut do agents take if they manage it all?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The Taoiseach response in the Sunday business post article is telling. One would imagine if there was a form filling error it would have been discovered by now

    His response completely misses the point, if government long term leasing policy multiply the value of a house they will always be in competition with ftb

    The Business Post reported on Sunday that some houses in Castleview, an estate of 250 family homes built in the early 2000s, are being snapped up by funds for well over the asking price. 

    The newspaper reported that both the €1.7 million and €850,000 homes were purchased from a company, which acquired those properties in 2021 for €345,000 and €360,000 respectively


    Speaking about the case in the Business Post, the Taoiseach said: “My understanding is that fund bought from a fund. We’re not competing with first-time buyers in that case… the point being that were units already assigned to social housing, with leases of 25 years, at the time of the sale, these properties are required to remain in social housing for the entirety of their lease, therefore any subsequent sale those properties would not be in competition with purchasers.”




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I think between credit suisse and the disaster that nearly happened in England has them worried. Whats the bets they'll keep lifting until something serious breaks then they'll bail it all out, lower rates to 0% and start QE again.

    They are a one trick pony they say how they can avail of all these 'Tools', they have only one tool that's QE and lower rates.

    Never in recent history would we have had QE and lowering of rates whilst high inflation rates - this would be my major fear if they do pivot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    As I understand it both issues are a direct result of 0 interest rates as is the starter homes in Castleview suddenly being worth 850k coupled with a government guaranteeing 25 year income on them with money received from taxpayers they outbid

    850k would build 3 such homes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Say hello to hyper inflation and the end of the EU if they lower rates and turn back on the QE tap. A necessary cooling in order to restore some equilibrium between assets/markets and the real economy.

    Central Bank today is speaking of the potential for a soft landing by using the term "technical" before "recession". I think we've all been here before but at least this time we are bolstered by huge household savings and the highest wealth the country has ever had so a year or two of muted growth and inflation should easily be weathered by Irish households. Unless...things aren't as rosy as they appear. The tide is going out so let's see in the next 3 to 4 quarters who has been swimming with their togs down.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Opec+ recommending a 2 million barrel cut in production

    There's more to this war than meets the eye. I suspect this is opec v esg. The control of key resources being the objective



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