Sophie: A Murder in West Cork - Netflix.

"Of course it is improbable that an inebriated man got up from his bed in the middle of a winters night"

Jules says he did and she didn`t see him for several hours afterwards. Not only did he himself say he did, he says he also left the house. Have you even read the sworn statements?

"made his way to a remote farmhouse"

He was clearly pondering going up that laneway on his way home from the pub. When he got home he asked Jules to come with him. Read the sworn statements.

"and killed a woman he didn`t know"

Of course he knew her. I can think of six individuals who have indicated they knew each other.

"for no reason"

When a violent narcissist knocks on your door in the middle of the night and you end up dead, the reason becomes self explanatory.

"Women are super intuitive"

I`m sure some are. Paula Rader must have been hiding under the bed when they were doling out the super intuition. Her husband murdered ten people over 17 years and she never suspected a thing. The psychologist who interviewed Dennis Rader diagnosed him with narcissistic, anti-social and obsessive-compulsive personality disorders. He said Rader had a grandiose sense of self, a belief that he was special and entitled to special treatment and that he had a pathological need for attention and admiration. Does that remind you of anyone? Apparently, Jules liked a drink. It can bring down a bit of a fog. I could say more about Jules but I won`t. I just suspect she is a decent lady who was very naive.

"but to suggest that anyone who sees possible malpractice is a conspiracy theorist, is wrong."

I haven`t suggested that. I`m in no doubt that there was Garda malpractice in this investigation and I`m not a conspiracy theorist.

"Tribuit had stated that no crime profiler would draw a certain conclusion"

Are you aware of one? I`m not. Nearly 26 years now and still waiting.

Of course it is improbable that an inebriated man got up from his bed in the middle of a winters night"

Jules says he did and she didn`t see him for several hours afterwards. Not only did he himself say he did, he says he also left the house. Have you even read the sworn statements?

That's not what I said. I said it was improbable that an inebriated man got up from his bed in the middle of a Winter's night and made his way to a remote farmhouse and killed a woman he didn't know for no reason. Highly improbable. So improbable that I cannot recall ever hearing of such an occurrence. Which, as you well know, is a different statement.

And I stand by it.

"made his way to a remote farmhouse"

He was clearly pondering going up that laneway on his way home from the pub. When he got home he asked Jules to come with him. Read the sworn statements.

"clearly pondering" speculation - you cannot possibly know what he was thinking. And, of course, that laneway led to Alfie Lyons house too.

"and killed a woman he didn`t know"

Of course he knew her. I can think of six individuals who have indicated they knew each other.

There is no evidence that he knew her. No record of them being seen together . No record of them ever communicating. No evidence of association of any kind. He certainly knew of her, as did everybody else in the locality, but that is not knowing her. Alfie thought he may have casually introduced them, but he wasn't sure.

"for no reason"

When a violent narcissist knocks on your door in the middle of the night and you end up dead, the reason becomes self explanatory.

There is no evidence that he ever knocked on her door. You're simply speculating. No motive whatsoever. He had no reason. And by no stretch of the imagination is the motive for this attack "self explanatory"

"Women are super intuitive"

I`m sure some are. Paula Rader must have been hiding under the bed when they were doling out the super intuition. Her husband murdered ten people over 17 years and she never suspected a thing. The psychologist who interviewed Dennis Rader diagnosed him with narcissistic, anti-social and obsessive-compulsive personality disorders. He said Rader had a grandiose sense of self, a belief that he was special and entitled to special treatment and that he had a pathological need for attention and admiration. Does that remind you of anyone? Apparently, Jules liked a drink. It can bring down a bit of a fog. I could say more about Jules but I won`t. I just suspect she is a decent lady who was very naive.

That's your opinion and I respect it. It doesn't, however change mine in the slightest. I cannot accept that Jules would not suss him out. She lived with him for 20 odd years. Its possible he was able to keep it a secret from her, granted. But its not likely. And finding one exception to a general rule is not persuasive.

Furthermore, women are ferociously protective of their children. Had she the slightest doubt about Bailey's involvement, she would not have allowed him near her daughters.

"but to suggest that anyone who sees possible malpractice is a conspiracy theorist, is wrong."

I haven`t suggested that. I`m in no doubt that there was Garda malpractice in this investigation and I`m not a conspiracy theorist.

You have suggested that. You accused another poster's opinion of being coloured by hatred of the Gardai. It is not necessary to hate the Gardai to suspect corruption in this case. There is ample evidence to make any reasonable person ask the question.

"Tribuit had stated that no crime profiler would draw a certain conclusion"

Are you aware of one? I`m not. Nearly 26 years now and still waiting.

I never said I was. But you cannot possibly know what every profiler would infer. So the statement was a false assertion.

that's a very good question. And, if they were covering for someone, I agree that 26 years is a remarkably long time to keep schtum.

But there is such a long list of solid evidence that its difficult to dismiss out of hand.

There's far more evidence of a cover up of some kind than there is of IBs involvement.

The only thing I`m struggling with is your lack of knowledge of the detail and I`m not here to educate you on it.

just because you do not know of one does not mean he didn't have one. No one here can know his thoughts. It could be he did go to her house and got rejected and lost the head. he was violent when drunk and had been drinking.

It could be yes. But there's no evidence of a sexual motive for the attack.

Nor is there any evidence of Bailey sexually attacking anyone before or since......

OK fair point.

Sex was a possible motive ......actually its the only realistic motive Bailey could have had.

But again, there was no evidence of a sexual element to the attack and Bailey had no history of sexual violence.

So, possible? yes. Probable? no.

The only issue I have with this is that he wouldnt have known she was alone. At that time of the year a logical thinker would think she was there with family for a Christmas break. You wouldnt think someone from France would visit alone at Christmas. He could have risked knocking of course and realised she was alone. He would have needed a reason to be there in the first place though and a party in Alfies could have been the reason. Thinking there was a party is not enough of a reason to make the journey - he would have had to be certain that there was a party going on.

So what if there actually was a party in Alfies that night and there were other unnamed people in the vicinity. Alfie may have wanted to keep this quiet. It would tie in with why Shirley wanted to go to the dump the next morning.

It is possible to construct any number of possible scenarios to fit any particular theory.

But if you pile improbability on top of improbability, you eventually reach absurdity.

So, after a nights drinking, Bailey decides to get up and visit a woman he doesn't know (improbable) He is hoping for a sexual encounter.

He goes to Sophies door and demands sex. Improbable that he would do so, improbable that she would answer the door in the middle of the night.

He asks to come in and she refuses so he decides to beat her to death with a concrete block. Improbable. For some reason she has her boots on.

He drags her down to thje gate and finishes her off, inflicting 50 blows. He makes his escape and leaves no trace of his ever being there or even knowing her. Improbable.

He then proceeds to revert to normal living without his wife ever suspecting him.

Despite extensive investigations, huge efforts to incriminate him, noo evidence can be found to link him to the crime scene or the victim. Improbable.

Did he kill her in this way? Possibly but only just...........

The same could be said about alot of men in the area at that time not just Bailey.

I see this pretty much the same way. Bailey had no motive I could ever think of. The Guards were also never able to establish a motive. This is also why their investigation failed totally.

I'd say, the only motive I could see is that the Guards tried to cover up, collude, and use corruption and coercion. This part would certainly point to a Guard.