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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Oh look another new tech which might undermine nuclear. Carbon capture that only requires heating to 80 degrees to release the carbon for storage. That sort of heat is one of the main by-products of fossil fuel or biomass generators. Personally I'd rather expose bedrock in Asia deserts using solar or wind powered machines , or use algae for biomass fuel , there's more than one way to reduce carbon.

    The new material is simple to make, requiring primarily off-the-shelf melamine powder—which today costs about $40 per ton—along with formaldehyde and cyanuric acid, a chemical that, among other uses, is added with chlorine to swimming pools. ... The U.S. Department of Energy has already announced projects totalling $3.18 billion to boost advanced and commercially scalable technologies for carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) to reach an ambitious flue gas CO2 capture efficiency target of 90%.




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,595 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    Fukushima isn't a dangerous place. It is a akin to living in Devon or Colorado or parts of County Down.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,556 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Wylfa is closer to Dublin city centre. And there's plans to open a new station nearby.

    In theory the prevailing wind should keep us clear but it didn't for Windscale or Chernobyl. It took 26 years to lift restrictions on Welsh farms.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,556 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    But Sellafield has a terrible history of leaks of radioactive gunk. Windscale had a massive 'accident' causing it to be renamed Sellafield in the hope the leak would be forgotten.

    I believe the fishermen in the Irish Sea say it is easier to catch the fish at night because they glow in the dark.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    £150m gets you a 100MW green hydrogen plant up and running for 2026.

    3.2GW of green hydrogen plant would cost you £4.8 Bn and offshore wind in 2026 will be as low as £37.35/MWh

    Hinkley C which has already increased in cost £3Bn this year, not counting recent inflation, was £106/MWh in December. It's now delayed till at least mid 2027 for the first reactor startup so unlikely to be fully operational until the end of 2028. Olkiluoto 3 achieved criticality last year but will be on test till December so it could take longer. (was down for turbine problems but came back on line today so testing can resume.)


    Having 2.5x wind to compensate for capacity factor means you'd could be generating hydrogen from surplus electricity half the time and only using it for peaking 20% of the time. Round trip efficiency is only 40% but nuclear needs gas turbines for peaking anyway.



    https://www.tvo.fi/en/index/production/plantunits/ol3/ol3forecast.html - Output tests and forecasts.

    In December 2003 Finland ordered the power plant, OL3 construction started in August 2005, with operations planned from 2009 which is how long they've had to use other power sources to keep the lights on. And the costs of those power sources must be included as part of the normal costs of nuclear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Maybe we can skip the fission and get into bed with these guys for a bit of fusion?




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,257 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    I posted this in another thread but I think it may be more relevant in this thread.

    have we any answers to the below:

    there are the issues of nuclear waste which I presume would go to the UK and France but for how long could that be guaranteed? What would we do if they suddenly decided no we are not taking the waste after this 5 year contract ends? 

    What happens with security? Do we need a specialist army unit to secure the plant or would it be private? 

    I presume we need two plants? 

    Are we allowed become a nuclear power? (I presume if you have a nuclear plant you become a nuclear power? Or is that just if you have nuclear weapons?)

    Who do we turn to, to build these plants? Is there much competition in this market so we don’t get done on price like the childrens hospital? 

    I presume it would be 100% design and build by a private company who have built many previous plants before? 

    Where are our uranium deposits be (if we have any)? 

    Where would the plants be built?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,556 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Your last point really says it all.

    Where would the plants be built?

    Let me guess what most peoples reaction would be: - Well, not near me for sure, and not near my relations and not within 500 km of me.

    Not at all! I do not like wind turbines, but a nuclear reactor would be 1,000 times worse.

    So, no way will it get built - ever.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    We need zero plants. Our grid will be able to handle 95% non-synchronous generation before nuclear could get planning permission. The other 5% could be waste to energy, CHP , Biomass, pumped storage, gas , hydrogen. So there won't be any demand for baseload. Put two plants on the same site and they can go offline at the same time, put them apart and they can't support each other. Japanese and French learnt that the hard way.

    There will be demand for peaking plant but nuclear can't do that.

    Loosing a nuclear plant would require 75% of the output to be replaced within seconds. A second nuke would be of no use whatsoever as it can't ramp that fast, especially if shut down for a day or two. We have grid connected batteries that can kick in in 180 miliseconds but nothing remotely on the scale to backup nuclear.

    No we would not become a nuclear power. That's weapons and a delivery system. We have neither.

    Price / competition ? Hinkley C increased in price by £3Bn in the first half of this year. To this add the cost of generating 3GW baseload from fossil fuel for yet another year. It's a money pit. The UK are in the market for 6-8 more nuclear power plants and still getting shafted on the price. Most of the nuclear power companies have gone bankrupt or close to or been sold on multiple times. No solvent and stable private companies, it's all state funded or bailed out if you dig deep enough.

    Most of our uranium is in granite. So lots of (fossil fuel) energy required to recover it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Security in other countries doesn't require the use of the military.

    Set up a synroc plant and use that to stabilise the waste, then find a deep salt layer, drill some holes, place the synroc at the bottom of the holes and backfill. If there are no salt deposits under Ireland, then contract with somewhere where there are. But other countries have managed just fine storing their nuclear waste on site for 40+ years without resorting to a final disposal and storage solution, which is ideally suited to Ireland with it's long finger approach to everything important, like the need for a national childrens hospital being identified in the mid 1990's.

    We are allowed to have nuclear power plants, that isn't an issue and doesn't make a country a nuclear power, which is based on weapons.

    We get South Korea to build them or Rolls Royce if we want to go SMR. A typical nuclear power plant has several reactors. The Barakah plant in the UAE has 3 korean built reactors which together produce enough to power Ireland, at 5380 MW.

    A single Barakah type facility in Ireland would make Ireland essentially zero CO2 in 10 years or less if legislation were passed to ringfence the project from Irishness.

    It would be extremely rare to need to shut down more than one reactor at a time. If you want competitive pricing, then you could turn to the US. The Koreans have built quite few reactors of the model used at Barakah, multiple in Korea, and have lots of experience doing so. Rolls Royce have been building small reactors for the UK nuclear sub fleet for half a century, with no major issues.

    We don't have any uranium deposits that I am aware of, but Australia has the mother load and I am sure would be happy to provide some.

    Well since Dublin is the primary consumer, somewhere on the east coast seems most appropriate, to minimise transmission losses.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    With NIMBYism and incompetence Ireland will never have a traditional nuclear plant.

    A possibility would be an Ireland-EDF joint venture to build new reactors at Flammeville (scandal already) and use interconnectors. Which is all eggs in one basket territory unless there would be 2x capacity of interconnectors if one were to go down.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    French nuclear reactors are producing less than 40% of their 64GW capacity because of predictable corrosion issues, also some rivers are too hot for cooling discharge. (Look at the number of similar US reactors taken down for corrosion over the years.) Normally you'd expect the 24-26GW of hydro to step in but there hasn't been much rain. The French government has essentially nationalised EDF to keep it solvent. Since the UK was exporting to France we couldn't import from there so we went to a status of Orange recently.

    Flammeville 3 started construction in 2007 and as long as they keep shovelling money into the pit, EDF will keep on building it, ETA 2027 so that's a minimum of 5 more years of paying for baseload from other generators.

    Re incompetence , ESB international were pushing for Carnsore Point so they could act as contractors for nuclear for other countries, on the other hand the UK has been doing nuclear power since the 1950's and they took 6 years to negotiate the price for Hinkley-C, which went up by another £3Bn so far this year. Also we'd never get the same discounts or service as the UK as we wouldn't be in the market for repeat sales.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,819 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    We don't have any uranium deposits that I am aware of, but Australia has the mother load and I am sure would be happy to provide some.

    its kind of ironic that Australia has all that and no Nuclear power plants.

    You would think Australua would be the perfect country for them with all the wasteland in the middle of it. Build some there and they could power the whole of Australia. Crazy how much Australia still rely on coal. I know they have started using solar panels more now there but when I was there I was very surprised by how few there were.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Australia has 29% of the world's uranium resources (under US$ 130/kg) – 1.7 million tonnes of uranium. Very roughly doubling the price doubles the amount that can be mined economically, as long as environmental laws don't change and fossil fuel doesn't shoot up in cost.

    A 1GW reactor needs about 75 tonnes of low-enriched uranium at startup and 25 tonnes a year after that. BUT low enriched means increasing 0.7% natural uranium to 3.5%-5% so that 75 tonnes becomes up to 525 tonnes of natural uranium. All of Australia's uranium reserves would barely cover the initial charge for enough reactors to provide 70% of global electricity, assuming no increase in electric cars or electric heating or air con. The rest of the worlds uranium would keep them going for 6 years or something ?

    It takes decades for nuclear to payback the extortionate construction costs. This sets a hard limit on the number of reactors that could be economically viable. If too many are built the the fuel demand will force up the uranium price. If storage costs keep falling then nuclear is roadkill unless it remains a niche generator.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,556 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Can the reactors use other fuel that uranium?

    What happens to all that depleted uranium?



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    There is active work being done on thorium reactors, which would be inherently failsafe. There is an abundance of thorium.

    Nuclear waste disposal is a political issue, not a technical or practical one. Think about it; nuclear power has been around for more than half a century and despite almost nothing being done about final disposal of the waste, and it hasn't actually caused any real problems. For somthing supposedly so dangerous, it's been rather ineffective at causing actual harm



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Australia has a 20 MW reactor in Sydney, at Lucas Heights - as in actually in the city. It's used for research and for the production of a wide range of radio isotopes used in medicine and industry.

    Coal is far cheaper and is vastly abundant. Australia also has vast quantities of natural gas. Australia, until very, very recently, hasn't felt an imperative to not use cheap. plentiful and easy to use fossil fuels.

    Historically, Australia has been a bit thingy about all things nuclear due to the British hapilly using the place for atmospheric atomic bomb testing and using Australian and british servicemen as guinea pigs for what happens when you put humans close to a nuclear fireball. This was closely followed by the French also doing some exceedingly reckless and stupid atomic bomb testing at Moruroa atoll in the Pacific. I actually love the whole cancelling of the nuclear sub deal with the French. As payback for the testing and sinking of the Rainbow Warrior, and the murder that resulted, it's a small start.

    These things resulted in one Dr Helen Caldicott, rather successfully spearheading an intense and effective nuclear hysterics campaign instilling fear of all things nuclear among a lot of Australians, much like the irrational fear present in most of the Irish population. At least the Australian government has never been anywhere near as silly so as to send out iodine tablets.

    The Australian government CSIRO developed the Synroc process for safely storing and disposing of nuclear waste in the late 70's. It's currently in use there for handling the waste from Lucas Heights. It's also used for dealing with plutonium waste at the Argonne national laboratory in the US and in the UK at Sellafield.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Fissile U235 is what reactors run on. It comprises 0.7% of natural uranium. The rest is mostly fertile U238 only some of which gets turned into plutonium. You get out less plutonium than the U235, otherwise we'd have lots of fast breeder reactors powering the grid.

    If you put thorium 232 in a working breeder you get out some U233 which in theory could be used to convert more thorium in a cycle. In practice thorium is used to extend the time between refuelling.

    Depleted uranium is very heavy and cheap. It's used in counterweights in aircraft. Ammunition. And stockpilled for if/when breeders ever work as advertised.


    Canada was doing active work on thorium in their Zeep reactor by 1947 at the latest. The Thorium cycle was made public in 1946.

    You need to capture two neutrons. One to convert Th232 to U233 and a second one to split the U233. Neutrons captured by U233 or waste products or the other materials in the reactor or those that escape the mirror make it so difficult to do that no one has made a reliable breeder that comes anywhere generating a surplus yet.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In Europe we have the 1961 HFR in the Netherlands. It's a 0.045 GW reactor that produces 30% of global medical isotopes. Oz and other continents have their own ones because of the short half lives. They aren't competing with renewable energy on price.

    The fear of nuclear construction cost increases, delays and the need to find alternative sources of power during the delays is very rational.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    A pretty in depth analysis of the potential (or lack thereof) of SMR's




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Lol:

    "with a particular focus on topics related to nuclear energy and fissile materials that can be used to make nuclear weapons."

    He's an anti-nuke head case who seems deeply concerned that nuclear reactors for delivering energy are actually going to be used to create nuclear weapons.

    If Ukraine still had nuclear weapons, there would never have been an invasion.

    He's a Helen Caldicott clone or wannabe.

    Sorry, did the article mention SMR's anywhere?

    "And, as was the case with Theranos, many such companies have been backed up by wealthy investors and influential spokespeople

    The saga of Theranos should remind us to be skeptical of unfounded promises.

    And, as was the case with Theranos, many such companies have been backed up by wealthy investors and influential spokespeople, who have typically had as much to do with nuclear power as Kissinger had to with testing blood. Examples include Peter Thiel, the Silicon Valley investor; Stephen Harper, the former Prime Minister of Canada; and Richard Branson, the founder of the Virgin group.

    ...

    A good example of such flawed claims, with some parallels to Theranos,"


    Theranos means SMR's, which are modelled on the annoyingly successful use of SMR's to power nuclear submarines and ships for approaching 70 years, are a bad idea.

    People the author likes: Elizabeth Holmes, himself, and Helen Caldicott

    People the author dislikes: Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, James Mattis, Rupert Murdoch (in fairness, everyone should hate Murdoch), Kissinger, Peter Thiel, Stephen Harper, Richard Branson

    What an absolute load of twisted and frothing at the mouth tripe. But then thats pretty typical of anti nuclear activists. He's the sort of Greenie pro renewables twat that doesn't realise that all renewables are powered by the unsielded output of a massive nuclear reactor that spews out vast quantites of deadly radiation. Anti nukers are so all encompasingly thick, they would probably advocate for the extinguising of the sun if they were ever smart enought to realise what it was and how many people on Earth it has killed. 121,000 people die every year from skin cancers - quick, extinguish that unshielded nuclear reactor! Has anyone even thought about the nuclear waste problem it represents?

    Thank god for Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos, without which we would never have been able to see that SMR's are a bad idea that will lead to unbridled nuclear proliferation, as has been the case with all other nuclear power reactors - I've even got a couple of nukes stashed under my bed, just in case.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "SMR's, which are modelled on the annoyingly successful use of SMR's to power nuclear submarines and ships for approaching 70 years"

    Western naval reactors tick most of the boxes, apart from price and running costs and needing highly enriched material.

    Admiral Rickover was paranoid about safety and reliability. Cost wasn't an issue. Well trained operators weren't an issue. Legend has it he dropped one trainee off the program for adding salt to soup before tasting it. Homer Simpson's need not apply. US president Jimmy Carter was one of their nuclear techs.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    How would nuclear be integrated into our grid in terms of spinning reserve, peaking plant, grid stability ?

    What would we use for power while nuclear was being built ?

    How would we fund nuclear construction program ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,440 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Ah just get the french to pay for it .. like hinkly C , how expensive could it be ..

    Maybe build 3 reactors ? For reserve, and then

    export the excess via inter-connector ,

    We could use giant batteries and pumped hydro for stability and peeking ,

    How big a deal could of be to build out a bigger grid to bring power around the country , actually put the 3 reactors in different locations , so 1 in cork 1 in Dublin 1 in moneypoint .. grid issues solved

    It takes about 10 years to build anything in this country so not much longer to just go nuclear - who'd complain ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Interesting news out of France. The govt are making a commitment that EDF will have all 32 reactors that are offline, back up for the winter.

    Some are down for regular maintenance and some are down for corrosion defects which are to be fixed.

    No idea how they plan to get all the work done in such a short period but I'm guessing some of the work will just be rescheduled based on a risk assessment.




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Earlier today I found a French site similar to the Eirgrid dashboard. Around noon, 68% of the electricity in France was nuclear generated, while at exactly the same time, gas was the source of 68% of Ireland's electricity. Once those repairs are complete, they won't need to worry about gas prices at all, as they won't be needing more than trace levels. Even today, only 15% of their electricity came from gas.

    If Ireland went nuclear, we would be free from gas and zero CO2. What a terrible situation to be in, we really shouldn't contemplate it.

    South Korea have just decided to aim for 30% nuclear and wind back on previous plans for significantly expanded renewables. They are swapping wind turbines for nuclear powered ones. Ok, wind turbines are actually nuclear powered, but thats not normally how one puts it.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Cherry picking up-times doesn't tell you anything about just how much backup plant you need if you use nuclear. Hint - it's a lot.


    https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/power-generation-energy-source if you click on the date you can compare to last year.

    Cherry picking and weasel words. Nuclear is NOT producing 68% of what France is using. Nuclear produced 20-21GW today, less than a third of the installed capacity. France simply isn't producing enough energy during a period of low demand. Over and above French production there's also imports of 20-25% today and for months now. France should normally be exporting too at this time of year.


    South Korea have had large outages with multiple reactors offline in winter. 10 reactors out of 23 offline during the heat of summer. In addition to the usual litany of maintenance there were fake safety certs and parts.


    Sweden is spending over €1Bn on a waste repository. Actually not a waste repository , a test site for one, it's damp so should show accelerate corrosion effects. It can't ever be used to store waste. All dead money, or a subsidy for nuclear depending on how you look at it.

    OSLO, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Sweden must import 2 gigawatt (GW) of extra electricity, more than the consumption of its capital Stockholm, to balance an unforeseen outage at its largest nuclear power plant from Feb. 19, grid operator Svenska kraftnaet (Svk) said on Friday.

    This week it was Vattenfall delays start of Ringhals-4 by almost three months

    And jellyfish.


    Nuclear isn't dependable. So you need backup. And if you have backup you can use renewables.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Nuclear is NOT producing 68% of what France is using."

    "Nuclear isn't dependable."

    "Unit 2 of the Heysham II nuclear power plant on the north west coast of England yesterday broke the world record for the continuous operation of a commercial nuclear power reactor. The reactor is due to be taken offline next month for maintenance.

    As of 1 August, the Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR) achieved 895 days of continuous operation, having operated non-stop since 18 February 2014. The reactor - also referred to as Heysham 2 unit 8 - is scheduled to continue operating until 16 September, when it will be taken offline for a planned maintenance and inspection outage. Assuming the unit carries on operating until that time, it would have run continuously for 941 days.

    The reactor, operated by EDF Energy, has generated 13.495 TWh of electricity so far during this continuous operation, taking its lifetime generation to 115.46 TWh."



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