Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

But who will sell....owner occupiers, investors, people who completely own houses, people with mortgages. Where will owner occupiers move to

Please explain

And how.much will houses fall by.

Why would they sell or try and get ahead of it? What your saying is crazy unless it is an investor or a holiday home being sold. No one in their right mind would sell and try and find a place to rent (which would be more expensive). Especially when they know that in the worst case scenario they won’t be evicted by the bank and made homeless.

after ‘ 08 there was a massive surplus of housing and specifically rental properties and because of this rent fell in price… we have a massive deficit supply of housing at the moment.

Then why would a mortgage of the same amount be sustainable?

A mortgage is a longer term commitment with serious repercussions should not be able to pay. which is why banks stress test applicants regarding their ability to repay. The 3.5 rule is one such protection mechanism.

What a load of rubbish. It has the economic understanding of a six year old.

Yes many may have bought houses or apartments and hoped to move on, but you be the ultimate gambler to do what you suggest. If houses fall by 30-40% like 2010-16 there will be no new houses build. While if you're right and some non national workers return home yes rents may fall. However there will be no supply of houses to buy.

Where will they come from.

Yours is chicken and egg economics which came first the chicken or the egg.

So a person will sell there nice house which is costing maybe 1000-1300 in mortgage repayments to go and rent for 2+k a month. As I said six year old economics.

We have had this scary BS before on these threads. During the start of COVID, 2016- now about LL leaving in droves( they are but it's not effecting house prices) the latest one is pension. Funds will pull out and hey presto all these houses will be sold one by one when legislation says they have to be sold with tenants insitu.

My argument is that banks should make the decision by looking at what you can pay. Not by some set rule that the CB implements.

Yeah, let the banks look after it, what could possibly go wrong....again?

Exactly. Don't Google wholesale prices for Europe last 18 months. Would scare the colour outta yer hair. Sweden seem to have it under control for now. We're fvcked tho. Something has to give here. Defaults and/or price drop.

businesses here are going to be under savage pressure the way things are going..

And what if banks are negligent and loan far too much? We saw what happens with that in the past - we must ensure it doesnt happen again. More than 3.5x income is not a sustainable mortgage for a lot of people anyways

Good luck with that. 3 inevitabilities of life: birth, death & taxes

Rising yields at NTMA bond auction reveal changed rate environment for Government debt

The Government has paid just over 2.2pc to borrow on the markets – around seven times higher than the cost in January – in its latest benchmark bond auction Thursday morning (irish indo)

may not be an immediate issue right now but just another blip waiting on ireland's radar screen - with approx. 250 billion in debt tax payers and would be property buyers cant afford to see national debt repayments rise and income tax rises here to offset the problem

Have you a link to the NTMA bond autcion?

So let rich people have easy access to loads of credit and give them opportunity to renegotiate their debt if they can't pay it. But not for the common middle class eh ?