Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

25-08-2022 08:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119522029#Comment_119522029

People think that when the fortunes of one go up, the fortunes of the other go down

dragonkin · 25-08-2022 11:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119520663#Comment_119520663

Yes what you are saying is 100% true when the ECB was set up managing inflation is and was its original function. It’s failing at its basic mandate.

This was to ensure that the Germans who were savers didn’t end up with an Italian style policy in the ECB.

Managing employment, avoiding recessions is in its mandate but this can’t interfere with preventing inflation. But the reality is that EU has the potential to collapse completely if interest rates are too high due to huge debt burdens so real politic wins out.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/intro/html/index.en.html

mcsean2163 · 26-08-2022 09:23AM

Interesting commentary on inflation by Charlie Munger.

https://youtu.be/v5UCmsXpngA

Italy, Spain and maybe Ireland should be kicked out of the euro because they can't balance their books as required by euro rules but doesn't seem likely.....

No consequence to bad behaviour, doesn't sound great.

26-08-2022 09:42AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119523640#Comment_119523640

Nor is it new, PIIGS.

Bass Reeves · 26-08-2022 10:16AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119523640#Comment_119523640

I do not think you listened to it all and if you did you did not understand what he said. Very intelligent man.

Why should Ireland be kicked out of the Euro, maybe in 2010 but at present it's obeying the rules

Jonnyc135 · 26-08-2022 10:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119522029#Comment_119522029

Well Said!

Jonnyc135 · 26-08-2022 10:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119520738#Comment_119520738

Demographics or the EU shows a declining ageing population and the baby boomers era of peak spending is over. A free market with no intervention would indicate lower GDPs as consumption would be gradually dropping off every year. So ECB in order to create and spur on growth QE the bollox out of the place and prior to Covid 2020 had to introduce negative interest rates as the still were just about able to create positive GDP.

The whole system is completely broken, population in the western world in on the decline meaning less growth and less spending. We cannot keeping chasing 'Growth' or 'GDP' by QE and negative interest rates. There needs to be a total overhaul of this system

26-08-2022 11:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524051#Comment_119524051

unfortunately it’ll be left to the system to overhaul itself. But it’ll be messy and there’ll be a lot of casualties

so many people think that we can get back to how we were

Villa05 · 26-08-2022 12:02PM

El erian extremely critical of central banks and not confident they are up to the challenges that await them

Interesting when compared against the Charlie Munger video earlier

https://youtu.be/XICmQw801vw

Villa05 · 26-08-2022 12:18PM

A window into how investment funds buying up property might play out into the future, will be interesting to see if there is any spillover of the problems in USA to Ireland. Many of the same players involved.

Yes I know there are many armchair economists on YouTube, but this guys commentary and concerns have been fairly accurate

https://youtu.be/LEL1b7fJ6mI

Villa05 · 26-08-2022 12:27PM

40,000 increase in construction workers in the 12 months to the 2nd quarter of 2022, a 31.4% increase.

A slowdown in the UK, EU, USA and material prices decreasing plus the vacant land everywhere and tax revenues bursting at the seams. It would appear that all the ducks have lined up for a progressive government to implement policy that finally solves our housing issues into the future, assuming the will to do so exists.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0825/1318715-cso-labour-force-survey/

pinksoir · 26-08-2022 12:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524477#Comment_119524477

I wish he didn't use such clickbaity headlines/images cos his analysis is generally very good.

Villa05 · 26-08-2022 01:54PM

35% for lecky and 39% for gas price increase from 1st of October with airtricity

Our winter sun holiday will pay for itself. Summer hols this year cancelled obviously

Jonnyc135 · 26-08-2022 02:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119525033#Comment_119525033

My grandmothers house (living in it atm) has an old solid fuel stanley range that heats radiators of the whole house. The range also has hot plates and an oven. We use and cut our own turf still but my god when I think how self sufficient we used be. It is totally backwards were heading.

Cut and save your own turf, use the turf to both heat your house, hot water and range used for cooking. Needless to say the chimney will be cleaned and the range will be roaring all winter as I luckily got a fair amount of turf cut this year. Its like they want to take this all away much like the farming so we are totally reliant on the state/big corporations and totally at their mercy.

Summer holidays you say - there will be more summer holidays on the bog for the next few years. Bog tan is always better than the Algarve tan :)

mcsean2163 · 26-08-2022 02:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119523875#Comment_119523875

--i do not think you listened to it all--. I mean this is a remarkable statement. Can you also tell what I had for breakfast?

In answer to your question, Ireland should be kicked out of the euro because it is too indebted. Rising interest rates would likely cause a recession and destroy us due to government borrowing expenses and according to Munger the printing is going to have huge consequences. Right now, rates should be raised similar to USA in the 70s but cannot because of the PIIGS and in particular IIS.

We could still be in the EU but just revert to the punt for 5 - 10 years or until we sorted out public finances.

quokula · 26-08-2022 03:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119525278#Comment_119525278

If Ireland needs to be kicked out because it's too indebted, then so do about 75% of the countries in the EU.

mcsean2163 · 26-08-2022 03:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119525496#Comment_119525496

When the tide goes out, debt per capita is what counts. I've said this enough. We're worst in Europe and third worst in the world.

If you don't believe that postulate, fine. The ntma has stopped showing the graph of gross debt over time as it's appalling. Maybe we'll be fine maybe we won't but a prudent manoeuvre IMHO would be to do something while we can and the EU might want to kick us out while we restructure.

Debt to GDP is a snapshot of the present not a guide to how we'll survive in the future.

jimmybobbyschweiz · 26-08-2022 06:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119524408#Comment_119524408

Lane and Lagarde in the top ECB jobs says it all for me about the calibre of the policy makers there.

There is a normalcy bias so extreme among these guys that the only way out is for some massive shock to be blamed by them for the inevitable doom that they are delaying. If it isn't COVID or the Russia Ukraine war, there will be something else that they will look to blame. However, the key question is how it could be sustainable to print so much money and keep rates so low (ie encourage borrowing while punishing saving) for so long? Those thinking our housing market, as a symptom of this incompetence, is in any way sustainable with rents and house prices at ridiculous valuations will be taking a deep and long bath, I feel.

jimmybobbyschweiz · 27-08-2022 07:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119525496#Comment_119525496

When the big tech companies are more muted with their activities here and this is reflected in updated Exchequer figures, we will be up the creek without a paddle for sure as that debt:GDP con will show us as the emporer with no clothes.

Don't believe that debt:GDP somehow makes Ireland sustainable when, to quote the ESRI even back in 2019;

"The ESRI has warned that any reduction in windfall levels of corporation tax will have a significant impact on the public finances, which could require the Government to implement austerity policies.

Because of this danger, it advises that the windfall portion of the corporation tax take should be set aside to counter any shocks to the economy in the future."

To think it won't be that bad, here is another quote on that 2019 report;

"On the property market, the ESRI believes parts of the market in Dublin have reached the limits of affordability.

This has resulted in prices either stagnating or falling.

It also noted that compared to house prices across the EU, prices here are relatively high and said the focus must be on increasing supply. "

Ireland is walking eyes wide open into the fire.

Rocko · 27-08-2022 11:38AM

Cork Gaa are only in this housing scheme for the money and nothing else:

They thought it was an easy way to fill there own pockets.

On lodging the plan, CEO of Cork GAA, Kevin O’Donovan said: “This project is a key element of the financial security of Cork GAA and the ongoing stabilisation of our finances.

Fast track planning shows that they had something to hide.

There are some amount of Objections / Submissions

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40948418.html

mcsean2163 · 27-08-2022 11:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119528515#Comment_119528515

“We contend that the footprint of the entire site is within an area that should be retained as green infrastructure for nature and community amenity area.”

It seems they just want to pay off the stadium debt but locals worried about sprawl and environment. Sounds like classic nimbyism...

combat14 · 27-08-2022 12:08PM

"People think that because there’s a shortage of property, we will not have a property slump. We can because it’s all about price and today Irish property prices are way out of whack with incomes and are sustained only by panic and its better sounding counterpart, confidence." David McWilliams

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/08/27/david-mcwilliams-china-is-experiencing-a-giant-property-crash-ireland-could-be-next/

Interesting article on China Property Market chaos and how Ireland property crash could be next ...

27-08-2022 03:50PM

Interesting piece about Ireland’s cities plan in the Irish times. Basically, scrapping regional levelling (not working, an inefficient use of resources), and focus on the Dublin Belfast corridor, with the potential for huge expansion and growth of new cities. A reflection on what are the actual population trends and will continue to be.

Will certainly influence regional house value dynamics

yagan · 27-08-2022 04:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119529502#Comment_119529502

If Dublin actually worked there'd be something in that argument, but in reality the better quality of life is enjoyed outside of Dublin and it's more likely WFH will see more people opting for lower density non commuting where possible.

If anything Dublin is a model of everything to avoid in planning but that's not obvious to those within its bubble.

27-08-2022 06:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119529783#Comment_119529783

It’s what the planning group is proposing. It’s not an expansion of Dublin necessarily. It’s a north south ribbon development that’s proposed rather than an attempt to cover the country with the level of connectivity necessary to level things out across the regions

manniot2 · 28-08-2022 09:27AM

I see a house close to me sold for 185k more than it was bought for in 2019. It was not cheap in 2019 either and would have had a large premium attached due to proximity to city centre. Why are people paying such daft amounts nowadays when they can live anywhere.

Tonesjones · 28-08-2022 09:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119525580#Comment_119525580

Absolutely correct.

Debt per capita is the real here and now figure.

jimmybobbyschweiz · 28-08-2022 01:36PM

Not to be too chicken little but here we go. Huge financial pressures on the State coffers are coming at a time when FF and FG are trying to cut taxes and throw money at voters and buy votes - the short-termism is going to bankrupt the country. Serious cuts to public spending need to be made, in particular in the area of property where State interference has been orchestrated to prop up prices and returns.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/meta-to-drop-120-contracted-jobs-in-ireland-from-october/

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/energy-crisis-minister-admits-that-businesses-are-now-under-threat/

Ozark707 · 28-08-2022 10:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119532804#Comment_119532804

A few years ago I saw some speculate that FB would look to send content moderation roles to lower cost locations. Guess it is starting to manifest itself now

slystallone · 28-08-2022 10:39PM

How much is it to get chimney cleaned out of interest?

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting