A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Jonnyc135 · 18-08-2022 08:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119487883#Comment_119487883

On holidays in Greece ATM, petrol and diesel over 3 euro at the pumps, taxi man was telling us that petrol alone woul take 25% of a min wage worker here.

brickster69 · 18-08-2022 10:28AM

Following UK yesterday reporting double digit inflation today's Euro stats. God knows what they will be once these energy bills kick in.

brickster69 · 18-08-2022 10:39AM

What are you going to do Christine ?

SortingYouOut · 18-08-2022 02:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119487883#Comment_119487883

People taking extra jobs shouldn't impact employment/unemployment rates as it's calculated by person (employed v economically inactive) and not the number of jobs taken up.

It's no surprise that employment rates are up, the level of activity across a number of sectors is high due to pent up demand and savings. I had read that closer to winter would be where the true picture starts to show with demand naturally declining and further increases in price seeing a large drop off in consumer demand, which spirals the economy downward.

tom1ie · 18-08-2022 03:37PM

Am I right in saying the ECB can’t raise rates too much more before Italys economy is in danger of default?

Exactly how high could rates go before that happens?

Pussyhands · 18-08-2022 04:43PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/17/us-chipmakers-hit-by-sudden-downturn-after-pandemic-boom/

On the same day that the US Congress passed the law, Intel, which is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of government grants, sliced $4 billion from its capital spending plans for the rest of this year, although it said that it was still committed to a “strong and growing dividend” for its shareholders.

Meanwhile, Micron, which celebrated US president Joe Biden’s signing of the legislation last week with the announcement that it planned to invest $40 billion in the US by the end of the decade, was forced just a day later to say it would cut its capital spending “meaningfully” next year because of the downturn.

But after the severe inventory and supply chain stresses of the past two years, few analysts are confident that they can judge how an economic slowdown will feed through the industry. Hopes that the slide would be largely restricted to the PC and smartphone markets have already been dashed.

While a collapse in demand in the gaming market was the main cause for Nvidia’s earnings disappointment, the US chipmaker also said its sales of data centre chips had only risen 1 per cent from the preceding three months, compared to Wall Street expectations of closer to 10 per cent.

It blamed supply shortages rather than falling demand, although other indications, including a fall-off at Intel, have fed the suspicion that the booming cloud computing market has cooled rapidly.

In recent days, the signs of retrenchment have broadened. Micron finance chief Mark Murphy said last week that industrial and automotive customers were the latest to cut their chip purchases.

brickster69 · 18-08-2022 06:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119489812#Comment_119489812

1.7% positive would the danger zone where bond yields would go crazy so they default.

It is not Italy that is in trouble if it happened, it is the holders of the bonds that are in dire trouble. That means the central banks of the Eurozone member states, commercial and investment banks, pension funds and individual investors lose big.

Only solution is member states Central banks keep borrowing to them or take the hit at some point and write off a big portion of it's debt.

greenfield21 · 18-08-2022 09:42PM

I can already feel another 75bps raise from the fed coming in September with financial conditions loosening, labour market tight, markets rallying and the transitory fools declaring victory. Recession seems to be getting further away.

Jonnyc135 · 19-08-2022 08:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491320#Comment_119491320

You me and the dog on the street knows the core inflation has taken off and that will take a long time to get back under control, they say food is linked to energy inflation which it is due to fertiliser/shipping but the main part fertiliser lags by at least a year before its knocked onto the consumer when the harvested crop are being traded, expect food inflation to spiral comming into the winter months causing a knock on in core inflation, coupled with public pay sector deals, we are far from done.

rob316 · 19-08-2022 08:34AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491320#Comment_119491320

Can't escape energy inflation though and there is absolutely no signs of relief in the distance.

brickster69 · 19-08-2022 09:47AM

The US is sending as much gas as possible to Europe. It's like winning the lottery shutting down Nordstream 2 for them. Costs 300 and sell it for 2300 plus 50 days shipping costs.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/17/energy/natural-gas-inflation-heat-wave/index.html

EOQRTL · 19-08-2022 11:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119487645#Comment_119487645

So people having to take extra work and spend less time with their families is now a good thing?

tom1ie · 19-08-2022 11:42AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492526#Comment_119492526

America is really making a killing on the LNG supplies to Europe, why isn’t this highlighted more in the media I wonder?

Europe can’t keep paying that kind of money for LNG and we can’t return to putins gas- so what do we do?

Renewables just aren’t up to it at the moment until the storage issues are sorted.

Nuclear seems to be a good option but that takes a hell of a long time to plan and build.

brickster69 · 19-08-2022 01:39PM

The cost of producing goods rose 5.3% in July. The highest monthly increase in history and energy prices are set to rise 134% in October. The lag normally takes 4/5 months to pass down to consumers, so we should be expecting a faster rise in inflation heading into the winter.

Jonnyc135 · 19-08-2022 01:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493649#Comment_119493649

This really is not a good indicator of what is too come

Pussyhands · 19-08-2022 01:46PM

Thanks Ursula

Darth Putin · 19-08-2022 02:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492918#Comment_119492918

Some of us are old enough to remember the Great Recession and the doom of 80s and 90s Ireland

Yes full employment and growing is exponentially better than what we had before where almost everyone from my generation and my childrens generation had to emigrate

just filled up petrol at $3.05 per gallon in Georgia that’s €0.80 a litre, happy days

EOQRTL · 19-08-2022 02:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493853#Comment_119493853

I emigrated to NY when i was 19 in the late 80's. I know all about hardship.

Darth Putin · 19-08-2022 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493985#Comment_119493985

Then stop wallowing in imagined misery during a boom and save up and invest for a real bust

Unlike Russia the civilised world is doing about as well as things been in last 20 years

EOQRTL · 19-08-2022 02:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494004#Comment_119494004

Who's wallowing lad?

There are people out there really struggling, why don't you stop pretending everything is rosy for others just because you are alright Jack.

Darth Putin · 19-08-2022 03:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494114#Comment_119494114

There has always been people struggling and there always will, but at least there are multiple employment opportunities available which is exponentially better than having to depend on welfare or emigrate which was the default for most of this country’s history

Pussyhands · 19-08-2022 03:28PM

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/19/cineworld-preparing-to-file-for-bankruptcy-following-pandemic-rout

Cineworld about to fold

bob mcbob · 19-08-2022 03:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493086#Comment_119493086

America is really making a killing on the LNG supplies to Europe, why isn’t this highlighted more in the media I wonder?

So America ramping up LNG production to try and address supply issues in Europe is a bad thing? What do you think the LNG price in Europe would be now if friendly countries did not ramp exports?

Jonnyc135 · 19-08-2022 03:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494189#Comment_119494189

Loads of these high paid jobs that are needed to sustain a living in Ireland at the minute espically dublin (tech industry) have hiring freezes and CEOs almost warning employees to up their productivity as there is a serious uncertainty coming in the next few quarters. It might not look that way from looking at LinkedIn jobs up the last 5 months but I reality nobody will be hired