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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,025 ✭✭✭growleaves


    @Housing99 'A person I work with is emigrating next month despite making 60k because she cant buy a house'

    Why does she need or want to buy a single-family house if she is by herself?

    She could get a one-bed apartment in Dublin on that salary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    I would assume its because she doesnt have a 50,000 euro deposit and also doesnt want to live in Balbriggan

    But sure claim its not a real issue, because this head in the sand is whats putting SF into power

    The best way to save the status quo if you think its good is to tax the jaysus out of assets to bring down house prices or demand an end to restricted mortgage lending. Basically do anything and everything so working people can buy in Dublin again



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,025 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I'm not claiming the housing crisis isn't a real issue.

    However it is people on incomes lower than 60k who must move out to Balbriggan. Your colleague could get a one-bed apartment in Smithfield, Santry, Chapelizod, Inchicore, Citywest, Park West, Beaumont, Tallaght, Ongar, Dublin 8 and Dublin 15.

    What she can't get is a house built for a family of four all to herself. Or an apartment in Dublin 2, 4, 6.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,277 ✭✭✭amacca


    Perhaps you are right about the way people will vote....but sinn fein won't achieve any of that if they are voted in imo......hurlers on the ditch at best imo,


    They may (I fact I think its highly probable) make the situation worse although the incumbents are such a shower its hard to see them deliberately adopting inflationary/counterproductive measures...


    I think its a runaway train at this stage and FG/FF know it and are attempting the hospital pass so they can watch SF shoot themselves in the foot and get back in next cycle when people are out for SF blood ...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05



    The young folk of the young folk will be paying for 08, plus the pensions deficit.

    I get from your post that your starting to see the benefits of sustainable economy rather than the boom bust we are hooked onto



  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    This is genuinely a nonsensical post.

    I have no idea where the notion that people who struggle to buy today would find it easier post-market-collapse comes from.

    The only way house prices fall is if demand collapses. Nobody seems to actually understand what demand collapsing means, they think it's going to affect everyone but themselves. What it actually means is a huge number of people who are trying to buy houses now (i.e. you) are going to be unable to buy, for any number of reasons like:

    1. They've lost their job
    2. They're income has been cut
    3. The bank restricts it's lending / they find the bank is now saying no
    4. Current homeowners can not to upgrade - market becomes stuck
    5. Current homeowners go into arrears - cannot sell
    6. Output drops as developers scale down

    The reason people picked up cheap gaffes after 2008 was because we had a ton of excess stock. This does not exist today. Rents were low as we suddenly had a ton of unexpected landlords with negative equity property they couldn't offload. This does not exist today.

    You say the "rich see a drop in their wage and we become more equal". If the "rich" see a drop in their wages, why on earth do you think you won't see a drop in yours? The two things are not separate. What do you think happens when the government tax take is reduced? What do you think happens when the "rich" people have less money to spend in the economy? Again, those hit hardest will be those at the bottom of the ladder. If anything, the equality will get worse, since the "rich" are generally able to absorb drops in income better than the less well off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭manniot2


    Cannot buy in Dublin or cannot buy in D4,6,8? There are plenty of houses for middle income people in Dublin. Check out Lucan or Swords. Granted you will probably need to be in a couple to get anything more than an apartment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    That's the issue though - renters in Ireland don't have a high standard of living. It's a mess, we have completely run out of (available) accommodation in most of our country.

    The situation has made an awful lot of people feel like they're locked out of having a stake in society.

    I agree an alternative government could be much much worse overall, but we really can't act surprised when they're voted in at this point.

    Wether we like it or not, renting is temporary in this country, its not secure, its expensive, and generally its of a poor standard. If you trap people in that mess ... they'll eventually say screw it, and vote for chaos.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Spot on. I was guilty of this kind of thinking myself for a while until I realised if and when things turn for the worst it won't be the boys in the offices on the top floor who feel it first. It will be the shitkickers like myself who are out the door. How will I buy anything with no job?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I am sixtyish years of age. I am from that cohort that never went to Trinity's or to any other university. I married when I was 29. For two years before that both me and my wife saved very hard to put a deposit in place.

    I knew very few single people who bought house in there twenties or even in there thirties. We were in the midwest not in Dublin. Two single lads bought houses. One won a shared lotto where he worked. He won 60 k. The other lad had a small inheritance that allowed him bridge the gap. They got people to move in with them.

    You have to remember we were a generation that some started working from 15 years of age maybe younger. Lads left school at that age. Your generation are 8-10 years longer in education and expect to leave college and buy a houses.

    I spend 3-4 years in digs and the rest of the time renting until we build our home. Most of that time renting I shared a room in a house with one bathroom.

    While my rent was cheaper than the present generation car costs were astronomical back the. The insurance for my first car was 800 pounds( over 1000 euro) for the year. The car did not cost much more it was 12-15 weeks wages as I was an apprentice. I even paid tax out of my apprentice's wages.

    When I qualified my wages were 140/ week due to the tax system I took home about 105 out if it. Even out if that wage and my insurance dropping to 450 euro I was paying more than 4 weeks wages for car insurance.

    I did not live in Dublin so there was no public transport system. I didn't go to college because my mother could never have afforded it. She was widowed twice and had to rear eight children.

    Maybe I was lucky I did not go to Trinity.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    You forgot the bit of farming you do too, extra added hardship that trinity couldn't even compare to. 3rd level education (3rd level degree myself) is just another new enslavement and money racket, all to feed the college industry. NUIG building huge college campus accommodation and charging 1200 a month, crazy stuff.

    People literally spending arms and legs in college, comming out with alot of degrees that are basically not worth the parchments it's printed on, and a job in dublin on a graduate scheme for **** all. If I could do it all again I would take a trade, work around home where I grew up and shuffle with sheep and cattle just for the added hardship.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Maybe you just didn’t learn how to benefit from your third level education, that bit can’t be taught, but it is invaluable.

    Besides, aren’t trades at least partly taught in colleges now? Seem to remember reading that electricians had to attend classes as part of their training/certification, but I could be wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Well funny enough I done fairly okay out of my degree as I have a role in my work that allows me to base myself out of the North West even though its a dublin job, odd meeting maybe once a week in dublin but I have a company car so that isn't really a problem. I was lucky I graduated in 2015 and got in at the right time college now is off the reterscale so I can see the disgust from the younger people.

    As regards trades I still feel all the years I spent grafting paying crazy rents in dublin in order to luckily get the role I'm in down was the greatest waste ever and I would have been way better off for all those years if I had a trade and worked around home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Did I say anything about hardship. I mearly pointed out differences between generations and perceptions. There is an expectation now that you can have after 4-6 years working that took a different generation 10-12 years and more to achieve. And they did not achieve that as a single person.

    You think that now about a trade. You will not think that in 20 years time. As a 40-50 year old you will getting up at 6-6.30 am in the morning leaving home 15-20 minutes later and driving 30-90 minutes to work. You will not be working every Saturday. Ya the lad in the trade is out earning you now. But a recession could drop his wages in half. There is very few trades people I know that did not spend 5-10 years abroad at some stage in there life. If not that they maybe spend that amount of time working away from home.

    With in ten years you will have a totally different outlook to now

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    "I married when I was 29. For two years before that both me and my wife saved very hard to put a deposit in place" -> this is impossible today for most. Utterly impossible. No matter how hard someone works to save. And that's just saving a deposit in 2 years, never mind paying for a wedding!

    "There is an expectation now that you can have after 4-6 years working that took a different generation 10-12 years" -> this is patently false, look at home-ownership rates for 30-somethings in this country, the majority of whom have a decade+ working. Never mind that home ownership in early-mid 20's was far from unheard of for your generation, even for modest earners.

    It is, once again, so demoralising to see that, for you and many of your generation, your view is essentially that you were 'hardier' than the generation(s) that followed.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    You just have to look at how fast the price of houses has outpaced wage increases to see how much more difficult it is to get onto the ladder today than it was 30/40 years ago.

    This is basically the avocado toast argument again. It's a lazy one IMO.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That sounds more like you regret your choice of career rather than your degree being useless. I suspect there are tradesmen who regret they didn’t apply for degrees which would give them a job in the tech sector, particularly when it’s pissing rain/freezing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I actually like what I do, it's the thought of the amount of money I have spent on rent in dublin over the last 9 years, you talking up on nearly 85,000 for me and probably likewise for my girlfriend, and this rent was house share room rent.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I do not think we were hardier. People on threads like this compare there ability to buy a house with someone 40 years ago. They have a presumption that it was easier. It was not.

    Yes we saved hard for two year. However we had a deposit before that and wages to buy a three bed semi in Limerick city. After all I had both being working since our teens. We saved hard to give us a different housing option basically to buy a site and build a house. But at that stage we had nearly twenty years of being in the labour force fulltime between us.

    People now leave college many with a useless pie e of paper at 23, many have to spend another 2+ years either getting a masters or doing professional exams. They do not start to earn until after that.

    I always think the problem nowadays is that sex costs nothing. 30+ years ago of you wanted regular sex in a bed you had to be married and more have a house. You did not drift through your 20's you worked all through them years.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    I had a response typed up about how insulting/out of touch your post is but tbh after that last paragraph about sex i'm just shy of 70% sure you're pulling my leg.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    that post must surely be satirical, no?

    Its not far off saying all you had for Christmas was coal in a sock



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I think youve let yourself down, I have paid over 85,000 euro in roomshares in Ireland since I started working after college 9 years ago likewise my girlfriend that a combined cost of nearly 170,000, we have been prudent and have a substantial pot for building a house wonce things settle off on the materials side. But if I did not get the hybrid working and had to stay around the greater dublin leinster area forget about it. But there is absolutely no way you can say it was harder back then. My parents went to Londan done 2 years (he worked as a mechanic/lorry driver she worked in a shop) and built there house mortgage free with cash, no way ud do that now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    What fundamentals in the housing market will change with a change in government?

    Demand will remain the same unless there is some policy change that results in job losses and if that happens I won’t make the assumption that it will only impact people that have immigrated to Ireland for work. It will impact everyone.

    unless the new government can create extra labour and capacity to build houses there will be no additional housing built. All that will happen is more of one type of housing will be built and less of another. E.g. more social housing will result in less private houses for FTB’s



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Big difference with that recession was there was a massive oversupply of housing at the time. if we have a recession now there won’t be a drop in rents as there is a massive under supply of housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    If you paid 85k over nine years that an average of 800/ months. It's sounds highish for the period you speak about

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Posts: 617 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    000000000

    And whats going to happen now is people will simple have no choice but return home to live with their parents. Others will simple have no choice but leave the country. We have something like 750 homes available for rent in the WHOLE country. The situation is simply dire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The problem is we have regulated LL out of existence. If you had a house that was free for 6 months to 2 years and in good condition you would be crazy to rent it.....even to someone you thaugh you knew. That is aside from overhead commercial and former commercial premise's in smaller urban centres.

    There an old saying ''hard cases make bad law''. That is the way regulation works in this county, we regulate for hard cases.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Started off at 500 a month but remember Rental pressure zones were not around that time so every year for about 4 years I was getting slapped with increases, and they all build up, then came end 2016 and rpz in play then estate agent jacked rent before it, thats where we said no thanks and we moved to a cheaper place which was 800 a month, only got 2 years out of that then woman that inherited the house sold it. Since 2018 rent just ballooned then up to 1000 a month for a room share, then came post covid where it went to 1200 for a room share. So all in all that's where I get the 800 a month. Yes I could have got rent cheaper at the time in the likes of lucan or swords but when you weigh up the transport costs of travelling to city centre everyday and or having to buy a car too tax insurance upkeep, I opted renting in dublin.



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