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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Glenveagh CEO Stephen Harvey on smaller gardens,

    Apartments are unviable and housebuyers are subsidising them

    Shift from apartment to own door accomodation, while keeping units per hectare the same and eliminating ongoing management fees

    Removing apartments from suburban schemes, would reduce cost of delivery per unit to 315 to 325k per unit

    Seems eager to have a shift away from investment fund product to ftb product

    Inflation has peaked, labour is plentiful, wage inflation between 4 and 6%




  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    indeed. People who ask potential SF voters what they expect SF to do to fix things are utterly missing the point. I know a ton of people (including elderly family members - not just young people) who are going to vote SF for the first time. And the reason is to blow everything up. Turn over the tables. Take a flamethrower to the whole thing and hope to rebuild.

    I think for many it’s got to the point that the devil you don’t know is better than the one you do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,024 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I can sympathise with those people and FF/FG aren't 'owed' votes but that's not how creative destruction works.

    Creative destruction is when something 'better' is brought in and the old is simultaneously gotten rid of. If SF are going to destroy first and "hope to rebuild" later than that is high-stakes gambling at best.

    Though perhaps Eoin O'Broin will have a coherent plan come election time.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You know that and I know that. But it doesn’t wash with the people I’m talking about. The idea of another electoral cycle of more of the same isn’t an option for them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,853 ✭✭✭quokula


    It's absolutely idiotic though - by almost any metric Ireland has some of the highest standards of living in the world. One issue is that houses have gotten expensive (though not wildly out of line with comparable countries) due to there being a lot of money around and not enough building during a pandemic, and people want to respond to that by destroying everyone's livelihoods, introducing levels of poverty not seen in decades, and darkening our children's futures for the sake of house prices getting a bit cheaper (but no more affordable to the many who will lose their jobs of course)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Very dishonest of your to frame our current housing issues as a result of "not building enough during a pandemic"

    Have you been living under a rock for the last 5 years?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 955 ✭✭✭Get Real


    I agree that those are the reasons. But I'd respectfully argue that people who give those reasons are also missing the point.

    There's hardly a single example of engaging in a "flamethrower" vote that has had a positive outcome.

    In general, are people's lives better in the UK since the Brexit vote?

    Did Trumps stint leave a lasting and measurable change of fortunes for normal working people in America?

    We elected in 2011 Fine Gael and Labour as two fingers to FF. Labour promised no increase in college fees. There was also the slogan "Frankfurt's way or Labour's way" at one point in June 2010 they were at 32% in the opinion polls.

    Needless to say, college fees went up and water meters were installed. The rest that came/gave hope and paused water charges& further austerity was more down to the global economy than who was at the helm imo.

    Likewise, I give the same outlook when the economy downturns. Its mostly timing and musical chairs. Fully willing to be challenged on that.

    Given Brexit, Trump and how we now want to vote out those we took a chance on in the 2011 election, I personally don't believe it's anything more than cyclical coincidences and being in office at the right time and place. With policies having success depending on the waves of the tide that's able to carry them.

    All these words from SF are bollocks the same as they were from other parties before them. I've no doubt they'll be elected, I just don't see any major changes nor this eye-opening moment of "look at us now, it can be done"

    Saying that, I don't have any strongly ill feelings towards any party really, because at the end of the day they're just humans unable to predict the future, alot of it is hope and look, your whole life is given to public scrutiny and criticism. You'll always have people angry at you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I would have more respect for Labour than any other party past or present for one simple reason

    Labour will sacrifice votes for the betterment of the country. I think all others would do the opposite. Voters quickly forget that it was Labour that brought in free fees in the first place which enabled us to move up the value chain of FDI. Every other party squandered the fruits of that policy to the point of breaking the country a feat the current shower are well on the road to repeating



  • Posts: 577 ✭✭✭ Musa Unkempt Tech


    when SF get voted in I would say the house prices will drop. It should be a good note to any party in government, if you have high population growth and a consistent housing crisis, then dont expect to stay in government



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And if they don’t, it will be an abject failure to deliver on one of their priorities. If you think prices will drop with a change of government, you must think the only factors in house prices, are those controlled by politicians, of any party, which of course is stupid.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,559 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Why do you think they will drop? What are they going to do to cause this drop?

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭fergus1001




  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We know they can go up, down or remain static, but the questions asked were, why does the poster think they will drop because the government changes, and how will they make prices drop?

    They are fair questions after such a statement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭tigger123


    While a change in Government probably result in an instantaneous fall in house prices, it will see a change in the direction of housing policy.

    This could well lead to more affordable, and more accessible, housing for more people in the future.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sounds like an election promise, like all the others, hard to deliver unless they find a way of reducing the population, reducing wages, building lots of houses, and stopping people with better paying jobs/more savings from outbidding those with less financial resources, etc, etc.

    Should be easy enough, after all, they have done a great job in the North to make everyone happy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭tigger123


    The invisible hand of the market will guide everything.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    They can’t really do any worse with respect to the factors that you list



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How naive.

    Actually they can if their policies lead to job losses, wage reductions, reduced foreign investment, slow down in private developers building houses, more LLs leaving the rental sector, spending policies which drain the public purse and lead to higher taxation etc etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,853 ✭✭✭quokula


    They can do worse, much much much worse. I genuinely fear for what would happen to the country under their mismanagement.

    And yes, house prices probably will go down as that's what happens during periods of recession and mass unemployment rather than the current period of a buoyant job market, strong foreign investment and high standards of living that Ireland is enjoying compared to most of the world in pretty turbulent times following a pandemic and during a major war in Europe.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    In the event of things blowing up I will give you one guess as to who is going to lose out the most.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    As Moore McDowell said years ago and he got castigated for it Joe Sixpack

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 744 ✭✭✭drogon.




  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And the question that will be asked, “why me?”.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The last recession was great for renters that kept there jobs, huge uplift in standard of living. 5 years to accumulate a deposit and be ready for when the banks started lending again, it wasn't so bad for people that lost their jobs even, speaking from a household that lost 2 incomes

    It was the young folk that came after us that paid the highest price. In Ireland and especially housing those least culpable pay the price.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    No doubt the plight of renters was helped by the over 300k people who emigrated during the recession. It takes a particular type of revisionist to think the recession benefited renters and standards of living. Property/rental prices certainly dropped, but no one could borrow money, many could not afford to rent etc, some lucky people could, and they did well. Kinda sounds like the situation today, except it’s good times for the well paid, less so yhe the average earner.

    Maybe the debt from the next recession can be passed on to the young folk, of the young folk.



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ah Jesus, are we now saying the 2008 recession wasn't bad?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    I dont think its really ever ended for many of us. I cant buy a home in Dublin on a middle income salary as a single person and renting is hell. Id actively vote for SF to MAKE 2008 happen again, best case I get a cheaper place to buy worse case the rich see a drop in their wages and we become more equal. I dont think many posters here understand just how big of an impact locking celtic tiger raised people out of the property market has had on our mindsets. A person I work with is emigrating next month despite making 60k because she cant buy a house and all of my 28 - 32 year old circle of UCD and Trinity educated middle income friends are enthusiastically voting for SF because we see the entire system as inter generationally fixed and are willing to lose a job to bring it down, all because we cannot buy homes in Dublin



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Would worse case scenario not be you lose your job and not be able to either buy or rent? In being able to buy a cheaper place, you are assuming you/your wage would be unaffected by a 2008-type recession.

    Why do you think you would be insulated? If you are 28, chances are you are too young to remember what 2008 was like.

    I admire your friend’s decision to look beyond where he/she is today, I’m less impressed with you whining that the system is rigged cause you can’t afford to buy in Dublin. There is a life beyond the county boundary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    I lost my job and covid and Im still living with my parents, I didnt really care. I hated renting and I wasnt my home. I know a lot the same. Renting is a temporary roof. I'll never rent again, I only want to own, its the only thing seen as normal in Ireland and we locked the young out of being normal



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    On emigration, I almost moved to Canada last year, didnt go because the visa is only 2 years.

    I'll likely end up having to buy in Meath or Louth but thats enough of a bad prospect for me to want to tear the system down. Lots agree with me and that is solely the reason SF are so popular.



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