Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Timing belt · 14-08-2022 10:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473772#Comment_119473772

how many people will avail of it or be considered budget for it originally was very smalla

14-08-2022 10:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473871#Comment_119473871

From the site:

“The scheme is making €400 million available, to facilitate the purchase of up to 8,000 homes over a 5-year period, subject to demand.”

How could anyone view this as the Government “heaping debt” on the buyers who avail of it, and how can they think such a limited number would have any affect on house prices?

ittakestwo · 14-08-2022 10:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119472106#Comment_119472106

I know from your posts you're very much vested inwanting prices to remain high. But the housing crisis here is a shambles. Up the taxs on multinationals untill some start to leave. Too many jobs here is leading to immigration. Definitely going SF. People say there economic polices are bad for FDI but that is what exactly we need here atm.

14-08-2022 11:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473961#Comment_119473961

What about the 270k employees and over 16bn in direct payroll the MNCs bring to the Irish economy? What about all the taxes the State takes in in corporate tax and taxation on employee income which pays for all the services?

You want unemployment to skyrocket, employees to default on their mortgages, and all the businesses/employees who indirectly benefit from those 16bn in wages to close/lose their jobs? So you can buy a house.

And all this while SF will be telling anyone who will listen that our robust economy will be able to to provide the billions necessary to support a United ireland and replace the UK subsidy paid yearly to NI. You need to give it a bit more thought.

Timing belt · 14-08-2022 11:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473904#Comment_119473904

So 80m a year or 1600 houses per year. So roughly only 5% of new builds.

ittakestwo · 14-08-2022 11:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473987#Comment_119473987

As I said I own a house but I am not greedy and have a lot of empathy to hard working people who are giving up half their wage in rent or still living at home in their 30's. We are not providing with of just two essentials you need to live... shelter to so many irish people and it is a disgrace. Instead MNC are creating loads of jobs do they can make as much money as they can and are importing workers to fill these roles with zero consideration for the housing crises here.

We need a balance where taxation is raised enough so MNC's are not creating a surplus of jobs and therefore no net immigration is needed to cover the jobs.

The fact is 20k units is enough for Ireland's population with no net immigration. It is not enough units when MNC are creating loads of jobs and no restrictions on immigration. We can't put restrictions on immigration from EU but I dont see why we are giving work permits to non EU workers who are either not in construction or health. If google complain thst they get hire aload of Indians in IT to come here and keep their billion profits high wel let them leave. There is no room anymore for imported workers.

The country is putting MNC profits as a priority over providing one of the essentials needed to live which is an absolute disgrace.

15-08-2022 07:32AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474118#Comment_119474118

Asking market rate for a house is not greed. If you were selling your house today, you would sell to the highest bidder, just like everyone else. So don’t be a hypocrite.

The Government will never provide private housing for everyone, it never has, it never will. It has neither the finances, resources, manpower nor will to do so. Private developers are the only ones who can do that, and as long as it is expensive to build property, it will be expensive to buy.

Prioritising inward investment by MNCs has got us from the depths of a recession 10 years ago, to full employment and a lot of high paying jobs today. It’s true the success of the fin/tech sector has skewered the property sector, but you must accept that those employees would have had to leave Ireland/been unable to buy houses themselves if it wasn’t for those jobs. Reversing that, making over a quarter of a million people unemployed, from high paying jobs, losing the tax intake from their wages and corporate tax would be catastrophic for our entire economy.

Wanting that to happen isn’t greed, it is lunacy.

Ozark707 · 15-08-2022 08:29AM

As predicted by others here on this thread...

"The pace of reduction in housing activity accelerated sharply over the month"

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0815/1315745-sharp-decline-in-irish-construction-activity-in-july/

enricoh · 15-08-2022 08:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474585#Comment_119474585

Not surprised - I couldn't believe how quiet the builders providers was the last couple of times I went in. So we are on course for an extra 300k pps numbers this year - anyone know what that'd be net of emigration+ deaths. 200k anyway I reckon.

If supply is dropping and huge numbers of people still coming into the country there is no possibility of price drops, especially with the government buying n renting every second house going.

pinksoir · 15-08-2022 08:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474585#Comment_119474585

I can't remember where I read it, could have been the FT, but an article stated that many investment/pension funds are selling their investments in property and moving elsewhere. Not sure what that's an indicator of if true, but 5%+ ROI (for rented property) is a ridiculously good return so there must be a serious reason.

In any case, not good news if relying solely on the private sector to provide social housing.

Sierra Oscar · 15-08-2022 09:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474585#Comment_119474585

I'm not surprised, a lot of phases in developments are being effectively delayed indefinitely due to material shortages and costs. There will be a slump in the availability of turn key properties down the line as a result. It's ominous.

It's also showing developers are slowing down activity due to anticipated lower demand. However we will continue to require over 30,000 new builds in the coming years due to demographic changes. It's hard to see how the market will correct itself when the market itself is unable to deliver the required number of new builds whenever there is the perceived possibility of any economic downturn.

The State needs to be more involved in direct construction activity, but there is no sign of that happening. To bring prices down we need to continue developing new builds during any slowdown in economic activity - it should be used as an opportunity to significantly close the gap between supply and demand. That would require greater State intervention in the market.

This slowdown in new builds is going to completely upend the Government's ability to deliver on its housing targets.

Bass Reeves · 15-08-2022 10:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474585#Comment_119474585

The only hope if building seriously slows down is that you get some sort of public works going

Refurbishment of LA houses that are derelict. Public private partnerships to build mixed developments of 2-3 bed townhouses and semi 'D'. However there will be uproar from those that think a housing collapse is around the corner. The other issue with this is would have to go on existing sites that are owned by developers as there is limited planning at present for housing.

Refurbishment of older semi abandoned houses. The biggest issue will be the upgrading of existing houses to bring up there BER. It seems since energy prices took off that the demand has soared. 50k applications are in progress AFAIK.

Another negative about rental prices is the way the government is proposing to implement any new tax relief to LL. There proposing that this will be subject to long-term leases. This will not slow down LL and unit exits IMO. Larger KL 10+ houses are already in REIT's or mini REIT's. These do not need tax relief.

The smaller LL will continue to exit of the answer is more bureaucracy. The other issue is it will not encourage those shorter term units( people in nursing homes, houses in probate etc) to consider entering the rental market.

Galwayhurl · 15-08-2022 10:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474085#Comment_119474085

A large percentage of new builds never go on the market to the public. E.g. apartments bought by REITs.

Of the properties available to the lublic, 1600 probably represents 10 to 15%.

ittakestwo · 15-08-2022 10:37AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119474473#Comment_119474473

Who said I was selling. I need a place to live. The government policys has turned this little country into a tax heaven where the economy has completely been distorted from FDI. Some people who are now giving up over hslf their wage in rent is direct consequence. We need policies to reduce FDI. FG/FF wont do this. Just go along with the ideology where FDI only leeds to good. You're an idot if you cant see the damage this is doing to the housing market or you have your own place and are greedy and dont care about people who cant rent a place for a fair wage or get on the ladder.

Villa05 · 15-08-2022 10:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473716#Comment_119473716

No matter how much a Government helps, the houses are going to be built by private developers which means they are going to be expensive, and subject to market forces

There in lies the issue. Market only caters for the top 20% of income earners (with subsidies) . All others pay much higher rents, those that can't afford rent are heavily subsidised by the taxpayer. All homes have services provided by the state, where the cost of same is not recouped in direct property charges.

In effect, all property is subsidised by the taxpayer. The more these subsidies increase, the price and rents increase.

This acts as a ball and chain around the ankles of the economy and its citizens whether you own a house or not, the costs grow. As they grow, the economy eventually crashes.

The state need measures that increase supply, reduce costs not stoking further demand. We need product for each income level that is affordable and potentially achieve a positive return for the state. I've detailed numerous ways this can be done, through cost neutral or revenue positive measures

mcsean2163 · 15-08-2022 12:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119473662#Comment_119473662

Agree to a degree, a simple solution would be to ban REITs/ government from bidding against a first time buyer when asking price has been reached. First time and other buyers could continue to bid against each other but at least they're not bidding against REIT/ government.

Such a deal would be very straightforward to implement etc. but in such a case the government equity share might still enable some to get on a property ladder but without a massive bidding war against the council.

growleaves · 15-08-2022 12:45PM

Interesting, isn't it, that the same phenomenon - small LLs being pushed out of the market by government action - is happening simultaneously across several nations and legal jurisdictions?

Previously I posted a link on this thread showing that the same thing was happening in California, New York and New Jersey. Add London and the wider UK to that list.

Of course there is a wider trend of destruction of small businesses in general due to emergency health and safety legislation, regulation and inflation.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-10889583/amp/Number-rental-homes-HALVED-2019.html

Villa05 · 15-08-2022 01:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119475031#Comment_119475031

Only a third made it to sale direct to public last year. In addition the ftb grant ran 50% over budget. Similar overruns in this scheme and reduced stock available for sale could bring it to 50% of the stock available for sale.

Most of the outstanding planning permissions are for build to rent units in High demand areas. We also have the cases reported by the Sunday business Post where existing homes that were long term leased to the state have close to doubled in value as result of the lease

15-08-2022 01:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119475039#Comment_119475039

Hence the “if” which preceded “you were selling”

Here’s a simple question for you, IF you were to sell your house, would you sell to the highest bidder, or would you sell to a FTB for €100k less because you want to help them out?

When you answer that question, it should dawn on you why property prices have risen so much in recent years. Home sellers, be they owner occupiers like yourself, or developers, want the max that a buyer will pay. So please, don’t be blaming the Government, or saying people are greedy because the seller wants the most they can get. It is hypocritical, and stupid. A government cannot magically make houses appear, so thinking a change of government will make things better is idiotic, because it will be the private sector who builds them. And as long as houses are in short supply, developers will charge whatever someone will pay.

FDI is what helped us out of recession, there was no construction sector, our banking/financial sector was in tatters, retail as doomed. It was the tech and pharma sectors which lifted a sinking boat, gave all those graduates jobs, restarted the construction sector, brought in the taxes necessary to run the public services. And continues to do so today.

You hoping for its demise, and tens of thousands of employees lose their jobs just because you think it will help people buy a house, is, well, unique to say the least.

ittakestwo · 15-08-2022 03:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119475812#Comment_119475812

I never even said i was selling. If i was selling i would also be buying as i have one home so i would take the market rate

The piont is that you dont get is people are not happy about the market renting or buying price here and see it as extreamly unfair. It is distorted by too much FDI.

Up taxs to a piont where there is no need for net immigration of 30k to fill jobs. It would be a far fairer society. By the likes of you just dont get this or you are greedy and have a vested interest in rents and prices staying high. You have a home. You dont give a **** about about people here giving half their wage on rent because you have an asset and just want it to go up in value. You will vote FF I bet to deliver that.

What is the piont in the economy creating jobs that it needs 30k net immigration to fill them when there is housing crises. Oh yeah so MNC can use our tax rate to make as much money as they can without giving a **** of the social consequences here. Only idiots or greedy people want the status quo to continue. Too many people see the unfairness tho and are flocking to SF as they seem to be the only party that gets this and going to do something about it.

timmyntc · 15-08-2022 03:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119475773#Comment_119475773

A significant amount of inflation in rental and property market is due to state interference. As you mentioned, long term leases allow rental units to be packaged up and sold on like mortgages used to be.

The only solution really is some radical curbs to the buying & selling of property. Maybe something in zoning that limits amount of rentals/reserving areas for owner occupiers, or same for planning permissions. Alternatively, applying taxes on any profits realised from the selling of property subject to a lease, or land subject to PP - these are the 2 main avenues used to "enhance" property value before selling on.

quokula · 16-08-2022 11:45AM

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-6-casino-drive-malahide-co-dublin/4022824

What's the likely story behind these? An entire row of houses going up for auction.

AlmightyCushion · 16-08-2022 12:07PM

When where they built? Could it be a pyrite issue or something like that that means you won't get a mortgage for it?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119480171#Comment_119480171

awec · 16-08-2022 12:14PM

There is almost certainly something seriously wrong with them that makes them unsaleable to anyone except developers / funds / similar.

Bass Reeves · 16-08-2022 12:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119480314#Comment_119480314

There looks to be common area which would necessitate a management company. If that is the case the bank selling them would be reluctant to sell individually as they would need to set up such a structure.

There may be common area issues to be sorted as well. As well they may not be connected to all utilities. Easier to get what you can now rather than spend a year sorting it

16-08-2022 01:30PM

Landlord selling up possibly, one of those were advertised for rental, €3500 pm.

combat14 · 16-08-2022 06:35PM

New UK lender plans 50-year fixed rate mortgages

Perenna secures licence from regulators to issue long-term home loans as inflation soars

https://www.ft.com/content/281fbba6-28e2-42d4-b241-0f215995f0d1

interesting development in UK wonder how long before 50 year mortgages will arrive here..

Villa05 · 16-08-2022 08:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119482167#Comment_119482167

Communion and confirmation money will be accepted as part deposit

Villa05 · 17-08-2022 10:26AM

Many posters belive SF and populism will destroy the economy. Maybe the populism that will destroy the country is inherent threat of high house prices and the naievity homeowners belive they benefit from it

Why housing can undo 30 years of economic progress?

Last 14 minites for those that don't need the banter and history lesson

https://shows.acast.com/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/episodes/why-the-housing-crisis-can-undo-30-years-of-economic-growth

tigger123 · 17-08-2022 10:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119484206#Comment_119484206

Listened to it yesterday, and it makes a very good point; if we continue to lock a sector out of the housing market, we can't be surprised when that part of the electorate vote with their feet and decide to blow everything up.

The housing situation is storing up problems for society at large.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Comments

Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting