Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I’m making no assumptions, we can only comment on what we see due to lack of ‘current’ data... there’s an increase in second hand properties coming to the market or sitting on the market so there’s a shift there. The reason for the shift is yet unclear. I’d also add that I wouldn’t trust the building trade comments in any way, it’s just as likely they can’t sell the properties as it is they can’t build for the price they want, either way they’re recording massive profits so something isn’t right. Also some raw material prices are dropping and if there’s a slowdown globally as many anticipate our globally purchased raw materials will no longer face the same demand and price deflation should kick in, the question is would builders then lower their asking prices and start to build.

Also notable is that adverts for new builds are listed as one ad for multiple units... so we have no idea of the numbers of actual units for sale currently.

Edit: anecdotally from younger family members I’m hearing many of our younger, well educated are leaving the country, immigration v’s emigration. We don’t know yet but is the education status of our immigrants what the country needs, can they afford the rents, the house prices. Will we lose some MNC jobs because they can’t find staff. There’s a lot of unknowns.

the building cost data is published by the cso and doesn’t come from the building trade. One of the biggest drivers besides energy costs feeding into material costs will be wage inflation to offset the increases in cost of living which will drive costs up.

you talk about deflation and prices dropping but if there is deflation in the economy the central banks will be forced to cut rates or undertake more QE which won’t result in lower property prices.

Likewise what does it matter if there is only one advertisement for new builds. The data is freely available on the CSO website each month which shows the numbers of new builds and the type of buyer that bought them. And before you say it takes time for sales to go through to be seen in the data the cso have the option of filing date or execution in their data so you can see both.

Building costs are still disconnected to builders profit margin. They clearly can afford to build as they’re making huge profits. From what you’re saying it sounds like builders are holding off on building so they can tap into higher wages next year alongside lower building costs.

The economy has been on life support since 2008, if they don’t temper inflation we’re heading for a bigger crash down the line. The US is showing us inflation won’t go away by itself and the ECB has its hands tied and is holding off for as long as possible, there’s a good chance Europe will be in for a short sharp shock (hopefully we can avoid a long protracted one)

How do you know? Maybe he wanted to get an exemption of 4.5 times income and the bank looked at the property and said no.

Agreed, its probably the buyer looking for an excuse to not go ahead with the sale, but Irish banks sometimes don't play ball.

He have the exemption on place before he bid. Banks do not value properties and then pull exemptions. Maybe the exemption lapsed but it looks more like Dad came along and said property is going to drop by 15-20% so drop your price.

You has similar thinking at the start of COVID that the sky would fall in. I cannot see it happening. I can see a slight price correction but it will be short llived

I made it quite clear it’s very uncertain, I’m trying to understand what is happening currently as this is what can dictate the actions taken by those in power in this overly manipulated market and will lead to the future market trajectory. Anyone claiming to know what will happen has their own agenda and in fairness we all have one of those. My concern at a higher level is at some stage in the near future we get a version of the GFC with inflation. It would be crippling.

*inflation leads to deflation unless wages keep pace

It's usually always the case in new developments that there are price increases for further phases.

Do people really think that renting is a golden goose that will continue to give great rewards forever ? My gut tells me it isn’t sustainable. The average rent in Dublin is about €2.5k to €3k, even if you are on 60K a year.. your take home pay is only circa €3.5k (https://salaryaftertax.com/ie/salary-calculator) and this would be considered a good salary too !

1 - So either we are going full American, and have everyone working two jobs to put a roof over our head.

2 - Have the government use tax payers money to subsides all rental accommodation.

3 - Have a system of slum landlords, where you have 3~4 families living in one house

Again 60K is a good salary to be on, but once the tax man takes his cut there is nothing left after your rent is payed/

further development here -- new bid came in from a new bidder at €X, not a million miles from the sale agreed price .... and the twat who messed me about has countered same with €X plus 1K.

I'm toying with getting the estate agent to notify the twat that I wont entertain any bids from him unless he pays a premium of €15K above the current bid given the lack of professionalism and lack of trust around his behaviour to date. ...which would leave it just short of what we initially went sale agreed on.

Next recession is going to be thanks to greed !

+1 on this. They'd have to be offering you a lot over the other bidder to justify the likely stress coming down the line as they mess you about.

Most commodities are priced in USD so a bit of a double whammy right now for Euroland. At least the US can partially supply themselves with oil, we are effectively importing everything.