Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Inflation once again. What can Gov do about it?

Options
24

Comments

  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    If you’re going to freeze wages in order to keep inflation down, then you start with industrial wages not the public service since it has the most immediate impact on prices…. A public sector freeze might allow you maintain the current tax rates and budget, but it won’t stop prices rising like a freeze on industrial wages will. It’s also one of the few economic variables that the government could actually control.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    But in the real world the costs get passed on to you, the management still get their bonus and the company continues to make money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,725 ✭✭✭growleaves


    How does the government freeze industrial wages? What's involved?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Nonsense it’s removal would not even be noticed a month later the way things are going. Just another opportunity for someone’s hobby horse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,185 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Solutions not problems please, just putting it out there as imo it was obvious,maybe too obvious, what do you suggest?



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    .

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    You made the initial statement without backing it up with any evidence.

    I asked for evidence of your statement.

    You are now trying to put the onus on me to refute your statement?

    Yeah..no that's not the way it works.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    SF are all the time offering advice to the Gov to 'do more' to combat every wrong in society, currently its inflation - that is spend more on the 'poor', 'the disadvantaged', 'the working poor', the 'squeezed middle', 'rural Ireland' - everyone except the millionaires they intend to squeeze of all the millions by huge tax levies. [They do not want to admit that we do not have a large number of wealthy people that would be able to fund their spending plans.]

    How does handing out Gov funding to every group in society help reduce inflation? All it will do is to feed inflation, or increase our already unmanageable public debt.

    Why are they not called out on this by the media?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    There is a precedent for Ireland electing a government who ran on a purely populist platform at a time of global inflation rooted in soaring energy prices.

    In 1977 Jack Lynch's FF won an overall majority (the last time this happened) on a platform that included getting rid of car and property tax. This erosion of the tax base sowed the seeds of the recessions and massive inflation that blighted the 1980s.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The massive inflation was already well seated in the economy by the time of the 1977 election. I think inflation touched 20% prior to that election, but it did make populist promises very popular with the electorate, I would imagine.




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 28,949 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    oh ffs, this again! growing public debt is generally far safer to have than not to have, we have sufficient evidence of this globally, 08 being the most significant evidence of this, i.e. over reliance on the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, is simply too dangerous, but its critical this new money, i.e. new debt, is used to help provided us with our critical needs, and not used to simply inflate asset prices such as property, as is generally the case with the credit supply and other public forms of money creation, qe etc......



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    We're 240bn in debt already. When do we start seeing the supposed outcomes of your theory?

    How do you propose to stop property inflation? Start a cull of the population?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If the new public debt is for capital expenditure and then there is a return from that investment - for example Metrolink - then that is a laudable use of debt. In low interest time - as now - it is doubly so, plus as we move to high inflationary times, it is triply so. We could get cheap EU money, but no, we are going down the PPP route. [Public money into Private Pockets - the Public takes the risks, but the Privateers take the Profits].

    What is bad, is increasing public debt for day to day expenditure, like paying increases to social welfare. What is worse, is to do it at a time of rising interest rates, where that debt will attract ever increasing interest charges that can (and did in the past) take up all the income tax raised. If we get to that position, it will not just be the poor that suffer.

    As a country, we have an appalling history of infrastructure development together with spending two or three times as much for it as other nations do. We also have spent huge amounts of public money NOT building public infrastructure, but paying huge amounts for plans, designs, studies, etc. etc.

    Since the foundation of the state, we have removed one of the best tram systems from Dublin, replaced it with a poor substitute of a Dart and commuter rail system. The extensive rail system that existed in Ireland has been largely dismantled and must now be rebuilt.

    I suppose infrastructure is not our thing.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Inflation is climbing the political agenda.

    What can he Gov do without making the situation worse?

    Covid caused the magic money tree to be given a good shake with the intention of keeping businesses in business, and keeping the hospitals open.

    Can the same trick work again?



  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That's crazy. I just checked and Ireland has the sixth highest debt per capita in the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,261 ✭✭✭Gant21




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,395 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Some levels in the PS are going back to 35hrs/week from the current 37.5 in July. Doesn't mean more money in the pocket but does result in a "pay rise" of sorts



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Which grades are going back to 35 hrs per week?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,395 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Don't know to be honest. Was told by a relation working in the HSE yesterday that her 37.5 hour week was finishing soon and they were going back to 35. She's admin in the HSE and not frontline/medical. Some payroll gig she's in



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,022 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    How much of this inflation is artificial, in order to increase profit margins. Oil companies making record profits, rental companies making record profits, yet it's wages that are driving inflation? Give over like.



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    OK - what drives inflation?

    1. At the moment, oil prices are up which raised the price of gas, causing consumer prices to rise. Of cause, the cost of wind rose so renewable energy went up as well. [This is nonsense, but it did]. So some profiteering.
    2. The input cost of fertilizer shot up because of oil price rise, causing rise in dairy and tillage production costs. This was passed on. Tesco milk went from 75 c to 95 c - why, I do not know, but Tesco have been raising prices on some products by a minimum of 10% and up to 50% or more. Tesco do not tend to raise prices by a little - it is always by a lot. Now, Tesco do sell some products below cost.
    3. If the public service gets a pay rise, this has to be paid out of public funds, which are either borrowed or paid for by increased taxes. Interest rates are on the rise, so borrowed money will cost more, which will be paid for from taxes.
    4. If all pay rates outside the PS rise then these will be passed on, causing further price rises. This will causes further inflation, and demands for more pay rises, which will spiral. It will take years to bring the inflation back to near zero which we have had for quite a while.

    So what can be done?

    Well, will people accept a fall in living standards? Perhaps some will, but most will not.

    How about higher taxes? Not popular - but inevitable.

    How about a recession? That is likely if the above options are ignored, and something that no-one wants.

    Basically, solving inflation is like trying to hold back flood waters - unlikely to work for long.

    Words and phrases that have gone out of use in the last fifty years: thrift; economise; repair; save up for it; postpone purchase; do without; make and mend; plus quite a few more.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,148 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The current 2021 and 2022 price inflation is not caused by wage inflation.

    There may be a small contribution due to wages rising in certain sectors, but the main causes do not included wages.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,022 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Those words ring hollow in the face of massive profiteering, coupled with businesses avoiding paying equitable taxes.

    Neo feudalism is the goal, pushing people into being permanent subscribers. With all the uncertainty and vulnerability that comes with it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    There is certainly some profiteering going on, where prices rise 'because of inflation'.

    An Post raised it price of the stamp way above inflation, but that contributes to inflation. Tolls on the motorways rise 'in line with inflation' not because of a rise in costs. Eir has signalled they will raise their prices at plus 3% and inflation - for ever - now that is profiteering.

    Inflation is generally given as the excuse for put up prices, whether it is true or not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭323


    For the past two years, central banks printing presses hav been working on overdrive, the money supply in the United States has grown by more than 38 percent. Before, a rise like would take decades, but now it grew by 38 percent or 5.9 trillion dollars in two years.

    In the same period the EU’s money supply also increased. ECB printed  about 20 percent more, or 2.5 trillion euros into existance.

    OK, most of it went straight to the pockets of the folks who own the central banks.

    But the wee bit that trickled down is deluted/devalued so more of it is needed to buy the same product than two years ago. Will probably get worse before things stabilise. (If, as is looking more likely by the day the US dollar collapses completely inflation will get much, much worse, but that'd be another tread)

    “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,”



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Once inflation takes hold, like a fire, it is very difficult to dampen it down. Bringing in measures to compensate those effected with pay rises has the effect of prolonging it. Of course, the poor are the big losers, and they should be helped by targeted measures.

    Others must soak it up and economise and accept that a lower standard of life is the price they must pay for the moment, which is, of course, going to be unpopular.

    A populist party in opposition will obviously capitalise on this by promising to better their lot. I wonder which one will be first out of the traps in promising the fruits of the magic money tree.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,949 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    most central bank created money, over the last few years, has actually only remained with the global financial system, and in turn only truly inflated asset prices such as property and stock markets etc etc, this form of money was created under qe programs globally, the only true gainers of these programs have been primary asset owners. the likelihood of these outcomes was known within central banks before these qe programs were introduced, i.e. they knew very well what they were doing, and what would more than likely happen, and continued to expand these programs, when it became obvious that this money was indeed only inflating the value of assets!

    its always important to remember, asset ownership is heavily skewed in our societies, primarily by older generations, with most younger generations owning very little, if any at all, such is the case in ireland, most evident in relation to property, and with the expansion of such programs such as qe, asset ownership has become even more highly concentrated, which has resulted in an environment of rapidly rising wealth inequality.....

    its also important to realise, our current inflationary issues have very little to do with this rapid expansion of the central bank money supply, and is more to do with the serious supply and energy shocks we re now experiencing, which are directly related to covid and of course the war. the only real solution to this is further expansion of the so called public money supply, via methods such as increased deficit spending, but to make sure the bulk of this money actually truly makes it into the actual economy, and is not used to simply further inflate asset prices, such as property, no easy task id imagine, but it must be done, or we could all end up in real trouble, very very quickly, as more and more businesses go bust, and unemployment rises!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Unemployment is a double whammy. Not only do the unemployed not pay income based taxes, and their lower available cash means they consume less and so pay less VAT and related consumer taxes, they also get funded by the dole. So Gov would do well to avoid a rise in unemployment if they can.

    The only real way is on capital projects that the Gov want anyway, like Metrolink or the M20.

    Let us hope the Gov cop on to that and do not go the way to give support to those in 'poverty' beyond what is necessary. Giving €200 to every household as they did in April, including holiday homes, is not a very smart use of precious funds.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,949 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....or maybe they could have left covid supports such as pup, ewss etc in place, i.e. making sure some of the deficit continued to go directly into the economy!

    ...as you said yourself, those lower on the socioeconomic scale save less, therefore spend more of their 'income', which directly benefits the economy, as this money is spent into it.....



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    PUP etc were decided under duress and not properly thought out. We should not want to go there again - I mean Covid, but also badly thought out responses to a panic situation.



Advertisement