Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Thanks

Could do with a rent to income figure and see where that places us

The problem with this chart is the rank is based on price to rent ratio, the rents here are in a ridiculous bubble propped up by government spending and squeezed by low availability of rental stock, it’s a delicate stack of cards and Ireland is exposed to the US market via MNC’s, I also think some of the money coming into the property market has been from people relocating back home from these hotspots after the COVID shock hit. That will change if other countries housing deflates.

Agreed - we got something right for once. I'd hope that anyone who was clamouring recently for those limits to be eased is now having a long hard look at themselves.

Anything goes as Boris and cronies try to survive just a little longer.....could be wrong but I see this as ameliorating a source of potential unrest in the short term and hang the long term issues....let the next ones in deal with that etc

Just a few notes on this.

Ireland is down 1 place from 22nd to 23rd on the last survey, this is despite a 14% increase in price. This seems rather odd

Credit growth is negative almost everywhere implying that the general public were aware of the risks and paying down debt aggressively. This would leave corporates and government wholly responsible for the current mess not dissimilar to the last bust, but of course they were quick to place the blame on the general populace.

Despite coming 2nd last in credit growth all other measures are flashing orange for Ireland showing the impact of investment funds driving up price and unaffordability. Were rent prices to income included it would paint a much grimmer picture for ireland

1 that may be the case but the 2021 report would probably have covered the worst of the lockdowns and that showed a figure of - 6%, while the current report is showing - 12.6%. This would imply that those covid savings in part were used to pay down debt

2 not disputing the impact of CBI rules, Gov had been trying for years to get a workaround, eventually they got it by bypassing them and handing the advantage through taxation to investment funds. One may argue that there carrying the risk, I disagree as they are well hedged through long term leasing and the government throwing €4,000,000,000 per year of our money at housing. As I say credit growth metric is a cold blue, the 2nd lowest of all measured while all other metrics are flashing orange, with the impact of untaxed rents not measured

35,800 vacant properties were classed as rentals, rather high figure. Most rentals must be short term now

Edit: Dublin and Galway cities have the highest proportion of empty rentals

Its probably fair to say any further house price growth will be very miinimal at this point

Some interesting comments from the last couple of days:

ESRI: ‘House prices are above where we would predict them to be’

Europe faces 'severe' risk of disorderly financial market correction: Lagarde

FRANKFURT, June 20 (Reuters) - The risk of an abrupt correction on Europe's financial and housing markets is high, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday.

once a house had a roof, windows and doors installed it is counted as habitable. Most new builds are turnkey so explains why new builds are counted as vacant in census

the same definition as previous census. As quoted above by the cso “dwellings being vacant for census purposes does not necessarily entail that they are available for re-use or to house other persons”