Summer 2022 - General Discussion

After Sunday is FI in terms of model dissagreement. All options are on the table for what happens next week. The only thing that's certain now is the weather will be half decent up to Friday, the heat spike is mostly restricted to England and parts of Wales with a brief brush of low 20s near eastern and southern coasts of Ireland followed by a cool weekend everywhere.

If you want proper summer weather next week then let's hope the GFS is wrong and that the ECM/GEM are right.

GEM is showing low to mid 20s across the country during the second half of next week with high twenties across the south. ECM keeps it mostly settled too with a ridge of high pressure but temperatures more average, high teens to low twenties possible. GFS shows next week as mostly below average and blustery winds temperatures generally mid teens with low teens in the north and some high teens at times in the south and the possibilities of a cold plunge moving south from artic regions.

Both the GEM and GFS are probably way off the mark. I think next week will be a mixed bag, temperatures will recover somewhat after the very cool weekend to come and tempertures should be close to average next week. The great uncertainty is will we see a build of high pressure next week or will we gradually turn more unsettled.

GFS 12z removes the risk of rainfall from the south-east. Little to no rain over the coming 7 to 10 days away from the west coast and north, however there is a chance next week could turn more unsettled if we get unlucky.

Scotland has really been getting a raw deal over the past 6 weeks, I know our weather hasn't been great either recently but things have been much wetter and cooler generally there and this looks like continuing.

We had a 90 minute window of lovely sun early in the afternoon after a cloudy morning. After 4.30 it clouded up again and had a few spots of rain with it and not enough to wet the ground. Brightening up now again and still feeling very warm. Reached 22C earlier during the sun, back down to 19C now but still feels low 20s.

The models were looking quite bleak about a week ago but this week turned out quite well but still nowhere as nice as last June which was 19 to 22C almost continuously throughout the month. The rest of June is still very uncertain, it could go either way, cool and slightly unsettled or relatively warm and settled at times. We will probably end up with a mixture of both.

As for the next 2 days it's looking warm away from the north-west. Tomorrow 19 to 23C in many places but much cooler towards the north-west.

Friday is seeing possibly a little boost again for some south-eastern areas. 19 to 23C during the early part of the day before the cooler air to the north-west slides south-eastwards during the afternoon. Temperatures of 24 to 27C still possible around Carlow, Kilkenny and Wexford/Wicklow.

The weekend will be cooler everywhere but perhaps not as cool as the charts where showing up to yesterday.

Mid to high teens on Saturday, not great but not the nationwide 12 to 14C I was seeing yesterday.

Sunday could feel warm again with temperatures 18 to 20C especially in any sunshine away from the north-west. Again this is certainly better than the charts were showing up to yesterday.

What happens from Monday is anyones guess. Right now the models are split between next week turning quite warm and settled while other models are showing it turning more unsettled and fairly cool. Maybe by Saturday we should have a much better idea what next week has in store.

We're only 1/6th of the way into summer. Next week certainly has some potential for warm weather and will probably end up mostly dry, if we get lucky could be better than this week. If the next 6 weeks end up being poor then maybe we could say that then if August ends up being it's usual self. I think the next 6 weeks will be mixed but potential is there for some really nice weather too.