Summer 2022 - General Discussion

While this first half to June has been poor, I think June 2020 was worse. June 2019 was also very poor from what I can remember. In terms of bad summers over the past decade we haven't really had many completely write offs but for me 2020 was one of them and the last one before that was probably 2012.

There is a little bit of hope that the second half of this June could be better than the first half but I wouldn't be expecting miracles. We will need a few more days to see how things start to shape up for the second half of this month, it could go either way, an improvement with some dryer and warmer conditions at times or a continuation of the annoying cool and cloudy conditions with wind and showers.

I think it will be a push to get 27 or 28C however the Arpege 12z is going for it. The GFS 18z is an improvement on the 12z and more in line with the other models and brings temperatures of up to 25C or possibly 26C back in the picture for eastern and southern areas, and the warm a bit more westwards to include the midlands and north Leinster. GFS temperature charts generally downplay temperatures by 1 to 3C during the summer.

This forcast could still change alot over the next few days. I am hoping we can another upgrade rather down downgrade across all models tomorrow to include more of Ireland and higher temperatures but that is unlikely I think.

We're unlikely to see a thundery breakdown despite the sharp temperature gradient over a relatively small distance. Looks mostly dry over the following 7 days.

Generally not much wind until Friday. Friday will be windier everywhere and could be properly windy in the north-west. Even across the much warmer south and east there will be a decent breeze which could give a hairdryer feeling.

Saturday and Sunday will be much cooler, similar temperatures to what we had today.

Monday and Tuesday could see a warm up yet again to high teens and low twenties as the ridge from the mid Atlantic will extend it's influence over us for a few days leading to a few days of nice summery conditions. This could push the jetsteam back up north of Scotland allowing all of Ireland including the north-west to enjoy some nice weather and respectable temperatures fingers crossed.

We haven't had a proper nationwide warm and sunny day yet this summer, there is a chance we may get this next week if the GFS continue to verify. The past few GFS runs have been warm outliers for next week so remain cautious but hopeful.

These charts can be found on Meteociel

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=330

Click UK/Ireland to focus in on Ireland.

As for the Arpege temperature for Friday this is what it was showing today. I feel these temperatures may still be slightly overcooked.