Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

31 minutes in

Fear is double barrelled in the property market

The fear of being stuck in the dysfunctional rental market is far greater than any fear of missing out on a potential up swing

The fear of renting and not being able to retire until you die is real.

Again, the issue we are experiencing right now is that companies are at the point of having to freeze new hires (if new hires come from abroad) because there are practically no rentals whatsoever available in the country. This is happening currently and there is no ignoring this state of affairs - one cannot assume that a Tik Tok or a Workday each has a way to magic up 1,000 new jobs while there is no housing for these workers. Therefore, our FDI-economic model is now, right now as I type this, under threat and perhaps already broken because of the housing crisis. It is only a matter of time before a big company announces it is pulling the plug (obviously Twitter and Facebook's work-from-anywhere announcements got little traction in the media or public discourse on the housing crisis discussion).

If a MNC announces a hiring freeze or lower new hires (or even just allows workers to move EU country), the current numbers employed may remain relatively static and wages for the MNCs could remain the same or could increase, but it could also mean that workers are happy to take commensurate pay cuts to live and work somewhere else which ultimately leads to an exodus. So even a hiring freeze or slower growth of employee numbers is going to be a hit to demand for rentals and materially correct the rents in the rental market.

There is significant construction activity of BTR properties that was shuttered during the pandemic that will, in the meantime, start to come on stream and will look for €2k+ pm for 1 beds, €2.5k+ pm for 2 beds etc. as standard but it will become quite clear that the conveyor belt of new immigrants on good salaries isn't there to justify these rents which will lead to ads for rentals available to start to climb and climb consistently. Rents will correct as a result of the supply being too expensive for the actual demand (which, remember, is not just "the population is X, therefore we need X properties" but also requires X properties of A, B and C type, with a maximum of K cost).

EDIT:

And to add what I have seen in the Indo just now; to flag the existential threat to our FDI model with well-paid workers. The "outrage" that someone on €100k would need a subsidy to buy a home is an example of the cannibalism of the left's policies that will become a trend as SF and friends hold power. Personally, I earn over €100k but my wife does not work in order to do childcare. We rent and half my after tax salary is gone on rent (2300) and car (300 pm loan and insurance) - if my wife went to work, it would almost be pointless considering the childcare cost. Therefore, we are no longer adding meaningfully to our savings and cannot afford to have another child in Ireland if we need a 3 bed rental. Seeing the lefties calling €100k salaries the "rich" is quite ignorant and makes me very happy to be emigrating. But I know for a fact that other well-paid workers who are renting with families are similarly considering their longer term settling options in this country.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/backlash-as-100k-earners-qualify-for-affordable-homes-scheme-41653140.html

Interesting the highest priced transaction mentioned in the article was 601k.....is that for the month of April

I know there are much less buyers in the higher price brackets but if that's nationwide for a month it suggests the high net worth liquid buyers were steering well clear then ......

Spoke to a broker today who reckons it’s a 6 month process to move to Avant at the moment vs 3 months in normal times. Apparently they met their half year target by February so they’re slammed with people looking to fix for the longer term

Freeluxury waterfront housing for our most deserving! Enjoy living in house share kips into your fifties though, on your Mickey mouse 40-50k salaries...

Its not too late to just give up working, go on the dole and make a proper life for yourself.

Yeah. I was told 6-8 weeks for them to even look at your application and another 8 to get the offer. We’re with ICS and fixing with them once the current fixed term runs out is suddenly looking very unattractive!!

Imagine what they'd make on the open market and how many units the proceeds would build in another lication

I have two properties, recently kicked out renters and went sale agreed on rental.

Hopefully it will be closed soon.