Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

On the radio yesterday bakeries were praying that some of the refugees would come and work for them.

Covid forced alot of services back to the home, childcare, beauticians, hair etc Fortunately they live in poorer areas so poorer people may have access to more affordable value for money services, Tax and rent are huge costs if you can get around them you have som competitive advantage

Working class areas are very resilient and adaptable. They are much better at pooling together and collectively overcoming hard times.

Thats a fact you rarely hear on the media and why putting social housing in wealthy areas could be worse than concentrating it

interesting, I’d like to know what they’re exposure to the Chinese developers is. Blackrock/ Vanguard and many others look like they will be taking a hefty hit. They’ve been heavily pursuing property in the US and I’m assuming it didn’t stop there. If there’s a sniffle of a downturn in prices it’s likely the investment funds can’t take any more losses and will offload.

https://www.ft.com/content/e7967c06-77f3-45f6-9bf5-f141f899dba5?fbclid=IwAR0IoDogH7KGuAIST2pnmiSLrUuco7syYupHtkfh2gr-GtCo0ihFjXv75Tk

Once QE started and yield on bonds fell and investors stopped investing in Bonds and started using the funds to buy other assets pushing up asset prices.

Germany have been warned about the property sector being overvalued for the past 4/5 years. Property valuation Growth has been way higher than Ireland during this period.

The alternative is to not move to Ireland for work as our demand the last few years is correlated to immigration. This is the demand destruction I am talking about

More and more people who are paying for others forever home, will fall into the never being able to afford a home trap. Then eventually they will fall into the forever home will be provided category because they wont be able to afford rent and work anymore.

Then this will reduce the pool of people paying for it. Its just a spiral around a plughole at this point.

When that well is sucked dry they will come after the people who already own a home for money.

The reasoning will be, you were lucky enough to be able to spend your hard earned cash on a house even after we taxed you to death, so now you can pay more tax so we can give it to the others who didnt pay as much tax.

Just to make everyone feel warm and fuzzy on a wet Friday night, here's a little doozy that could be on the way:

3 1° The State, in particular, recognises the common good as including the right to secure, affordable, dignified housing, appropriate to need, for all the residents of Ireland and shall guarantee this right through its laws, policies and the prioritisation of resources.

3 2° The State, accordingly, shall delimit the right to private property where it is necessary to ensure the common good and to vindicate the said right to housing for all residents of Ireland.

I don't think anything needs to be said about where that could lead us, now does it.

There are two things that set off alarm bells for me. First of all, there's this:

"... for all the residents of Ireland..."

Residents, but not citizens. Why did they word it that way? Anyone can be a resident here; are we to take that to mean that anyone who comes here is entitled to be housed?

However, this is the real meat of it for me:

"The State, accordingly, shall delimit the right to private property where it is necessary to ensure the common good and to vindicate the said right to housing for all residents of Ireland"

What does that mean? Well, it means that the state will have right and power to "delimit" private property for "the common good". What exactly is the common good? Well, it's potentially whatever the state wants it to be. That is a very, very dangerous power to give the state.

Only the start of it. Will probably get bailed out somehow and open up again under a different name.

You would wonder is there anything that can be done at this stage to save this kip. Or are successive governments now just gona let the plane crash into the mountain?

Leo will sort it out. He'll clean up this country when he's taoiseach again! 😆

so how much further does property have to up for builders to break even or make a small profit even........?

how much does it really cost to build a house a dublin and one down the country in rural ireland..

You think Ukranians can pay the rent prices in Ireland?

When their refugee status ends and they have to go and secure their own job and housing, that is when they will return East.

Your post is accurate in diagnosing what the problem is.

What could be done to alleviate ever increasing costs on the populace

Housing: build more on state land for working people close to there employment. Rent Set at percentage of household income. Sales ony at replacement full cost to qualifying families where work is nearby.

Childcare: use existing school infrastructure for after school care. The savings would ensure a significant cost reduction for families plus a raise in wages for staff, from my experience they are amongst the most professional in child services in the country

Insurance: everyone remember the insurance environment when Quinn was the dominant insurer. They contested almost everything. Alot of the better run companies in Ireland also have a policy of contesting everything.

Energy: I hear bus companies fearful of going out of business because of the oil price. Every bus in the country should be fully utilised ferrying people too and from work.

If the state is incapable of building houses on state owned land throughout the country, why not use them as park and ride facilities

Bus companies closing during an oil crisis is like closing a bakery during a famine

All low cost solutions that can potentially deliver huge savings and could be implemented fairly quickly

This is no longer some future far off reckoning. Europe has just cut off access to much of the vital metals, agri and energy it needs. Any its not coming back for a 100 years. There is the mother off all crisis coming. Unfortunately I am in the struggling to pay rent and get up enough deposit for somewhere decent to live. Help to Buy is little more than a scam to line builders pockets and their political patrons. Ive converted half of my deposit into gold this week. Im expecting a major inflationary event come Autumn. Things will start disappearing off shelves and not just getting more expensive.

Interest rates will have to go high to stop it getting out of control. Which means fixed rates id love to take advantage of right now will be gone. Hopefully some smart moves with my deposit might offset.

No one will build at a loss…all that would happen is that projects will be shelved till it becomes profitable to build. Builders would have no say except a few small builders that would build a handful of houses for lower pay to keep their company’s a float. Just look at the past 10 years and how little was built until house prices started to rise.

Looking to the last decade for future forecasts is a bit misleading. All developers were sucked into nama regardless of their financial position. A number of viable developers wanted out to complete, build new developments, purchase sites etc

Instead land was sold to investment funds to hoard.