Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Same was said about Brexit and Covid

How would they have had big impacts with the State underwriting the property market aided by magic money printers at the ECB and zero percent interest rates.

The only way for the housing market to sustain these prices let alone further increases is for the State to keep borrowing and throwing money into the market, otherwise it corrects.

And when we see schemes costing hundreds of millions or a few billion to implement recently like excise cuts on fuel and €200 energy credits (just to start, wait until food schemes are rolled out) then I think reality will hit home fairly soon that the State can't keep funnelling the easy cash into the property market. The penny will drop that the reason so much cash needs to be thrown at anything else is because housing costs are taking up far too much of the State and the individual's cash, making less cash available to cover shocks like we are experiencing.

Yeah reducing by a bit every month until the end of the year and not acting on Inflation by raising rates well done Christine. They are so far behind the curve it is scary. By applying Taylors Rule today to fight inflation rates would have to be 7% now. Anyway so sick of this western world that is no longer an American dream or when hard work and capitalism grows its where the mega rich prosper by controlling everything including central banks and governments. High inflation suits the central banks as it liquidizes their colossal debt. Growth years ago was fueled by profits made from companies. Growth nowadays is borrowed via low rate corporate bonds that are then used to do share buybacks and prop the market up, and increase companies growth. Central banks facilitate this by having low interest rates. The profits then don't benefit society they just go to the mega rich investors and shareholders. Peasant tax payer will always get shafted. High rates no growth, the whole western world GDP is totally dependent on the Central banks pumping in liquidity and giving low interest rates instead of consumers spending growth and using their own profits to fuel growth.

You’re missing the point. I agree that the current strategy of the councils buying up stock/encouraging investors to buy up stock is making things worse for lower/middle earners. But who suffers when working people just wait around for the situation to get better by itself? They do! They’re the ones who aren’t living the life they want! They’re the ones who don’t have the families they want!! It’s no skin off anybody else’s nose. It’s certainly not a problem for the REITs and the councils.

Making the best of the current situation is not the same as thinking it’s good or right or fair. Very few people have no options. I keep seeing people say they can’t/won’t start families because of housing issues and I just think they’re going to regret it.

Sorry I thought everyone knew that only the very rich and poor can have kids now or at least they are the only ones who can afford such luxuries. Those of us in the middle are just a money pit for for both cohorts to feed off. This country tail wagging the dog

Who cares what she says.

I only believe it when I see it happening. Italian yields jumped straight to 2%. Half the Eurozone is technically bankrupt. They can’t change their loose monetary policy.

I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not? I know lots of people with kids who are neither very rich nor living off the state (myself included).

Several of them bought their first houses in the last couple of years, too.

Hmm. A few weeks ago, there was talk of a "post-covid boom". That seems to have disappeared from the media. I suspect that the attempt was made to cast the inflation that state caused as some sort of economic miracle, but whilst Paddy may be a docile and meek soul, he ain't that daft.

Well we will have to agree to disagree as even without the money printer we would of still had a huge deficit between our supply and demand. That was going to hit at some stage.

The Taylor made not be applicable during a shock to the system or stagflation you are correct in saying that. European model of financial repression is also not applicable during a sudden inflationary shock as per research paper done by the IMF. Guess what though ECB are still ploughing away with financial repression in order to liquidate their debt (and screw the normal man because their to stupid to understand). It's ideal for them to have high inflation and lower interest rates as the net real interest rate is negative hence liquidation of debt. IMF done a research paper on this after the financial crisis and revised it again in 2015 to which they stated on the paper that European countries where implementing this model. I urge you google financial repression IMF 2015 report and read it. This model works well during steady average 2% inflation times (what ECB target is) and low interest rates. Sudden bout of high inflation leaves this system redundant as hyperinflation (when I say Hyper for the western developed world I mean close to 10%) takes over.

That’s 5k a year on average - hardly a fortune by any standard. I think you’re more interested in ranting about the poor than you are in the fate of the middle classes. I am the younger generation (30s). I know lots of people my age who have kids that they support themselves and the vast majority of them are not rich.

There is no hyperinflation... what we have is a combination of supply side shocks and rampant energy inflation which has lead to the expectation of inflation which has becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

I am well aware of the theory of financial repression but the ECB can't raise rates to fast because if they do we are in for a recession. Even without raising rates we are probably looking at recession as a result of the war in Ukraine. Despite this prospect the ECB have forged ahead with starting to unwind the QE which is the equivalent of an interest rate rise.

Anyone in the property industry, is there the same level of interest in housing from buyers as say a month ago ??

Have tenants moving out on 16th, hope to have sign at road within a week to sell.. Last two properties here sold within three weeks.. nothing else for sale locally..

Agree 100% there. Anyone should just buy whatever they can afford right now fix your mortgage. Inflation rampant. Next come interest rises, and rent rises. Buy anything and fix the rate long term. Then inflation is your friend and you are out of the rent trap.

Yeah remember do thats paid for out of after tax money as well. Have you got kids I have 2 and I tell ye they ain't cheap. Well fair play to them but just leaving the anecdotal evidence aside, why dont you have a look at what we are paying out for in this country for social housing and social welfare and get back to me. I have no bother helping the poor , where I have a problem is when they are dictating to me that I should be happy to pay for them to live in areas I cant afford, that is the conundrum that needs to be solved.