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How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

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Comments

  • Posts: 864 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It all comes from the same source, I wish people would stop with this nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly



    Lots of reports moaning alright, a bit like yourself, but no evidence presented at all.

    None of the moaners know what fuel was delivered, at what price, how often it was delivered or how much was in each delivery.

    Just keep screaming price gouging, profiteering and rip off.

    And no need for the petty insults calling people silly and childish.

    You would think a well educated person would be more intelligent than to drag his argument down to trading petty insults.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,335 ✭✭✭Miscreant


    So do "bad pints" in the local pub, yet anecdotally, they still happen.

    Sometimes the storage systems at the garage may be sub-optimal or filters are not changed often enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,453 ✭✭✭✭John_Rambo


    Those figures are almost accurate (except the BMW/Yaris comparison), well done. If you read my post again I said "some" drivers, not all drivers!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 771 ✭✭✭Sam the Sham


    That would be frightening if that were the only reason for getting the €40K EV and it were a choice between an EV and a bicycle. But in the real world, if you’re in the market for a new car, you’re comparing one new model with another new model. When I was looking for a car last July, I was torn between the ID.3 and a Golf. There was about €5K difference in the price. But between the cheaper running costs and the fact that the ID.3 is the far better car in almost every respect, the decision was really quite easy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,109 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    OK, I apologise for the childish remark but not the silly one and your clearly trying to get a reaction with absurd comments 'like, I'm watching prices 24/7 and this delivery deflection nonsense.

    You can choose not to accept what has being clearly going on, I don't get why your so adamant gouging has not accured when the dogs on the street can see it, or perhaps you've alternative agenda, who knows.

    I've simply posted prices I saw this morning along with what I saw Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, people can make up their own minds (Objectively) I hope

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,341 ✭✭✭crisco10



    Are you assuming that the EV will depreciate quicker than the i30?

    Because if you assume that that their depreciation curves are similar, than you will have a more valuable car to sell on in 5 years. Assuming you did 16k km per year, you would have covered the price differential with your annual savings. So your net spend at end of year 5 is the same, but you've more equity sitting in your driveway. And obviously if you keep the EV longer, the savings are all in your pocket now.

    I did a similar analysis of Petrol Octavia v Ioniq 5 and it wasn't even close over an 8 year ownership.

    If you are comparing new to new and like with like, an EV looks like a no brainer right now (if you can get your hands on one).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭flexcon


    So lets discuss this


    The expectation is if the price stayed the same then the Garage should be selling the diesel for 15c per litre less this morning, but instead it's increased.


    The only logical conclusion is the that garage owner is now making 15c per litre MORE than yesterday. On top of their typical decades old 5c average.


    simple question. Do you believe that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    I wouldn't be swopping out my battery in a hurry

    Sounds like a nightmare waiting to happen

    Is this excise reduction bad timing , surely it'll just get gobbled up



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    I'll give you what one guy said to me.

    He knows precisely how many litres are in his tanks. He gets two deliveries a week. He can programme prices to change when the tanks hits a certain level. So he can get a delivery on Monday and it could be Tuesday before his prices change. The change is automatic.

    He says he makes about 7p on each litre. He's currently £1.77 (Portadown) for diesel and hasn't been told yet what the price of his next delivery will be, so can't say if he'll be higher or lower at the weekend.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,109 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    I do of course accept and understand how pricing, deliveries etc work and I absolutely appreciate margins are extremely tight for operators. I've simply pointed out what I've seen (with my own eyes) and indeed many, many others have witnesses and reported.

    I live ,very rural , know exactly when deliveries are made at my local station and can assure you NO deliveries took place all week and yet, prices were increased 4 times in a week and two of those happened late on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning .

    I've equally acknowledged not every forecourt is gouging but without a shadow of doubt, many have.

    There's a few on here (for whatever reason or motivation) refuse to accept the obvious

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭reubenreuben


    Had a delivery of kerosene recently. I know its not for a car but all related.

    The driver had a Iive app showing the real time oil price increasing.

    So in reality , every day the oil is going up. I dont know how the car fuel garages price their fuel but they are probably looking ahead more than likely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭flexcon


    And most likely, the profit on that 7p is closer to 5p. He probably meant markup instead of "making"


    Could be wrong but in ROI, it averages 5c



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Aren't the forecourt prices constantly escalating

    They don't seem to be tied to deliveries

    Stands to reason they'll jack them at every opportunity given the margins



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,109 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    OK on the surface this makes sense but can I ask you this.

    I've long understood (and perhaps I've been incorrect) if a forecourt gets a Delivery and Pays X Per litre , Wholesale price, is it not reasonable to assume that this price then reflects on the price sold to consumers (Retail ) per litre.

    When Forecourt gets next Delivery at increased or indeed decreased Wholesale price, this in turn is reflected on the price the consumer pays 🤔

    The issue, and I believe its a real issue , forecourts (Not all) have had their deliveries at a Wholesale price and on more than one occasion in the past few weeks have gone and increased retail prices despite actually not getting a new delivery 🤔

    Do you believe this is remotely possible, serious Question 🤔

    I'd also just point out the opposite happens when there's a worldwide decrease in oil prices , in that mysteriously it takes weeks for those price reductions to reach consumers, is it at all believable, Forecourts suddenly don't need deliveries for weeks on end when oil prices go down 🤔

    All very, very curious.

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,200 ✭✭✭Citrus_8


    Site price structure is more complex than you think. It's a mix of Platts and delivery price.



  • Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    When I look at the basic for both the difference is €14000



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 771 ✭✭✭Sam the Sham


    The Golf wasn’t the base model and ID.3 prices have gone up significantly since then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭KildareP


    No, I accept depreciation will be a big factor - the i30 will be a fraction of what it's worth new, if worth anything, but I don't know what to expect with an EV.

    At the moment second-hand EV's seem to be appreciating somewhat (but, then too, so are ICE vehicles which seems to run contrary to what logic might suggest), but I gather that's a combination of shortages, lack of mass market model/range availability, the quicker savings to be made if you can get a second hand one as a result of the relatively cheap raw "fuel" costs.

    I'm comparing diesel though, petrol is not nor was it ever an option for me, but would imagine petrol vs EV would be a clear gap.

    I calculated over 5-years as that tends to be the max duration of HP finance and when warranty runs out (100,000KM in the case of the Leaf).

    What sort of a shape might an EV be in after 5-years/150,000KM - battery, motor, etc.?

    I've driven 5-10 year old diesels with well in excess of 200,000KM on the clock that were still going strong, could an EV be reasonably expected to hit 300,000KM in 10-years and still be going strong?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭Swaine


    Always makes me laugh. People in 2.0l diesels driving around towns at 50kph blocking up their DPFs then blaming bad diesel. Clowns.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 771 ✭✭✭Sam the Sham


    Also: on the Golf, a great many things that are standard on the ID.3 are options that you pay extra for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly



    Has it ever occured to people that somebody could get 40000 litres today at say €2, then on Saturday the guy down the road might get it for €1.80 and again on Monday for €1.60.

    Suddenly the guy who bought at €2 is €40c higher than the market and everybody is going to the guy who now has it at €1.60.

    So in a volatile market fuel retailers are hedging by put putting the price up on delivered stock, it gives them the chance to offset if the next delivery is 20 or 40c less.

    40000 litres at €0.2 is €8000. If you get 3 or 4 deliveries at the wrong price point you are in big trouble, you could be in trouble for €30 or €40K.

    But its all price gouging, rip off, profiteering.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭Swaine


    You just explained the very reason they're price gouging.

    Funny that it never goes the other way. You never see a garage dropping prices on cheaper stock until the older more expensive stock is gone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭flexcon


    This other poster sums it up fairly well.


    mixed with the fact many forecourts cannot get a full 30,000 litres delivery they want, it is mixed. A friend works in the local Maxol and they have had 3 deliveries this week alone.


    when it comes to mixed deliveries if say the 10,000 litres tank still has 2000 litres inside at a buy rate of €2 a litre, and a new delivery is taken to fill back to 10,000 litres, then the fuel indapt system can adjust the price the following day when the tank hits 80% (The crossover threshold of the previous fill and the new)


    So this is why the price can change multple times in one day if the perfect scenario appears

    More than 3 deliveries of less than 30,ooo litres on the same day, at different prices means 3 different price points in that tank and depending on demand that day, it could reach all 3 different thresholds of price thus giving the illusion of price going up and up and up. It just happens to be the wholesale price is going up and up and up.


    Why does the price take longer to come down?

    Well typically this coincides with less demand anyway, so it slows the rate compared to an increase



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 771 ✭✭✭Sam the Sham


    Seems to me that fuel is a commodity. It is part of the definition of a commodity that it’s price fluctuates daily based on the market. I dont know why posters on this thread think it should be any different with this commodity or why only with it is it somehow morally wrong for the price to fluctuate between deliveries.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes, I'm sure all the garages regularly reduce their prices below what they paid if the next delivery is going to be cheap. Fuckin hell.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,633 ✭✭✭flexcon


    No but yes in another sense

    If a garage has hedged the price to complete locally then say the garage now has taken in surplus 30K on profit and the price dropped by 5c per litre the following week, then it will be tough to complete at €2.10 per litre that the garage across the road sells at when you are at €2.19 as you still have last weeks higher price in the tank.

    so as the owner you can decided to reduce the price at to €2.12 and loose 7c per litre to clear that tanks worth. But in reality you haven't lost as you made 30K more profit by raising the prices the previous time. This is hedging correctly and where the average of 5c per litres comes from.

    I think at this stage the real lack of knowledge of the average Joe soap is giving a totally wrong conclusion on how these garages operate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    ah bless the poor fools.

    Certa is owned by a company called DCC. It is an Irish company. It is one of the biggest players in the European fuel market.

    https://www.dcc.ie/our-business/retail-and-oil

    Their turnover is 7.5 Billion Sterling

    And refined fuel is no different whether I buy it in my local BP or if I cross the border and buy it in a TOP or Circle K station. It is literally identical except for some who put an additive into it. But the base fuel has not an iota (or ion to be scientific) in the difference.

    It like saying your Kellogs cornflakes from Asda is different to your Kellogs cornflakes in Sainsburys. You usually find the same people were facebook virologists and gave "expert" opinions on vaccines. Fools they are. Total fools. Best ignored



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    A friend of mine was looking at an electric Kona. They went for a new petrol Kona instead with 5 years servicing. Saved themselves over nearly €20k. However long that will last them in petrol these days :)



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