Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I think stagflation most likely too

Inflation will be with us for a while

Demand curbed as people have less in their pockets, savings get eaten into and it becomes more about getting through day to day

Unemployment levels I'm not so sure....

I think the ability to borrow 4/5/6 times salary could be put in context when it comes to renters who have been paying rent for a certain number of years at a level which would be the equivalent of paying a mortgage of 4/5/6 times salary or else existing mortgage holders who have evidence of savings combined with mortgage repayments at a level which amounts to 4/5/6 times their salary.

But where will the social housing come from for these people in 25 years when they end up being life long renters? It will end up being the vast majority of the population being lifelong renters into retirement in the next 25 years onwards (the equivalent time period of 1997-2022). I give the current approach of younger generations propping up the wealth of older generations maybe up to 10 years maximum before the penny starts to drop that there aren't enough younger people able to buy up all the homes that are for sale at the high prices (ie today's prices) which will create a strong downward force on prices (in the absence of more leverage thrown into the market).

The seeds of decline are of course being sown today with policies designed to usher those in their 20s and 30s into lifelong renting while only a few lucky ones get lifted out of the herd to buy homes. As a country, it looks like we are having our cake of home ownership for some with prices steadily increasing perpetually while at the same time also eating it by expecting renters to continue to pay perpetually increasing rents to prop up these house prices for the home owning class. Can we have our cake and eat it?

No I use a screen scrapper to extract the data daily

Not all employees will be relocations. Also, property prices (to buy) are still low in Dublin vs comparable tech hubs (usa, canada, zurich, london, ).

Id also expect some redundancies in the tech sector once the Fed starts hiking rates. Too many unprofitable/barely profitable companies. Who knows, even profitable FB might start trimming headcount at some point.

These people don't vote so FF and FG don't care about them. They are fodder for rental demand to prop up the housing market. One student can't afford to rent a room alone in the country? No problem, pack a few into a room and ensure the average rent for a room stays at 1000 per month, which keeps rental yields and property prices high.

Weirdly, to question whether it is sustainable to not have any checks on the borders, for non-EU people (as we cannot stop EU people), somehow this is painted as being anti-immigration and possibly even racist even though it is the establishment of FF and FG who are "anti-immigrants" who only take in all these non-EU students to exploit them. It's unsustainable in so many outlooks to just pile em high and keep em coming. Again, demand is there until it isn't and our demand for rentals is definitely there but only to a point. Any sort of reversal in demand for rentals and our whole market will go into reverse.

My ex gf rented in D5 for while paying 350 for the top bunk in a room of 4 people, when leaving unless you got another poor soul to take your bed there was no deposit returned.

...id class it as dysfunctional living, may seem fun, but a nightmare if you re trying to rest for studies or work, ive experienced hostel living while studying, not much fun, there was also workers staying in the same place, dublin, a few years ago.....

Until this carry on is allowed, until these people are allowed to walk this land.. people of Ireland will forever struggle.

Id like to think I’m well insulated from such an event.

but I’d happily take a hit myself to see the end of this bloody circus.

Murphy only seems useless if we assume that he ambition is to create a healthy housing market that favours the Irish people. If, however, we consider that he is acting to turn the said Irish working people into wealth-generating units then he is far from useless.

One of the biggest problems here is that we let state officials off the hook by accusing them of being stupid or incompetent. To explain away the current housing situation as the product of incompetence would suggest to me a level of inability that would be off the scale. I cannot look at what is happening here and in other European countries and see anything but malice...

It's corruption and it is endemic in Ireland. Our housing policies are designed to push cash into the pockets of institutionals. Even the housing "charities" have an institutional representative working with them to ensure more cash is funnelled into the pockets of the institutionals. There is nothing stable about it and it can crash for that reason that in a lot of ways the market is being propped up by the State with little justification outside of State cash for the high rents and prices we are seeing. Is it sustainable? Well, the ECB seems to think it can keep printing money and handing it to our government to pursue these policies.

What gets me is the people doing this are generally considered ‘respectable’ members of society. I have two friends who would have condemned this until thanks to fortunate circumstances they were able to buy investment properties themselves and proceeded to charge extortionate rents themselves. I am disgusted by it and yes, maybe cowardly but I can’t actually tell lifelong friends that I think what they’re doing is disgusting.

Many of the people engaging in rent extortion are our friends and family, do we say anything to them? Why isn’t it morally unacceptable? The me feinism and greed in this country are unreal. People sound off about it until they have the opportunity to jump onboard themselves. Incidentally I am a landlord as well, I charge well below the market rent. My conscience wouldn’t let me charge the market rent.

I understand not wanting to fall out with someone, but it's possible to call out bad behaviour without making it personal.

Personal example: My grandfather bought my two aunts a house in Clare back in the 90s. It was a nice 19th century house in a small village with a big garden. My aunts, however, never took care of the house, and both of them eventually moved out. Today, the house is essentially ruined from neglect, and would not be livable without considerable renovation (the roof is rotting, for example). I've told both of them that they squandered my grandfather's gift, and that letting a perfectly good house rot is reprehensible. I was never angry or condescending, but I told them what I think. They didn't like hearing it, but they both know that it's true.

Indecently, one of them is a vehement leftist who regularly pontificates on the housing crisis by saying that "the government" needs to do more to help people get houses. That rings rather hollow when it's from someone who let a perfectly livable house fall to ruin...

You sound like a decent landlord, but it's the behaviour of many of your colleagues that stains the whole group.