Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I know it's supposedly 'location location', but that's more than the sale agreed and REA valuation of the holliday home I am trying to sell in Connemara, which is in such another league it's not even funny.

very nice house and expensively done, location is great but i genuinely wouldnt want to be on albert road, very busy road, That price is MENTAL.

yes i remember, 65 does have access to the rear via a lane beside the house next to them which negates some of the downside of mid terrace but east facing garden is a bit of a deal breaker especially at 2m! Was the back garden sold off prior to this sellers purchase in 2017 do you know?

The Dail is hilarious

You can't accuse a person of being a liar, please substitute with wilfully mis leading the house

And they wonder why the public think one rule for them, while different rules apply to all others

Interesting article on vacancy on the high end rental market in the times today

From my back of fag packet calculations on this mortgage rates would need to double to 6.5% for mortgage repayments to equal the monthly rent payments.

I can't see a 3.25% increase in mortgage rates coming down the line... the market is currently pricing in a 0.2% rate hike this year.

If rents don't fall due to a large increase in supply the demand to purchase is going to remain for quite a while.

Very interesting to see that a mere 2% rise would make renting more attractive versus buying as the cost would be quite similar. Add in the supply increase to the rental market and a potential decline in rental costs as a result and renting could be lower than a mortgage which would perhaps take some heat out of the purchasing market and reduce the demand.

The way inflation is going 2% interest rate rise might be with us soon enough and may not even be enough as there is serious heat to take out of the asset bubble.

It seems to vary between the less desirable Dublin post codes and the more desirable ones between higher mortgage repayments or higher rents, but as a general comment rents and mortgages would be a lot closer together than they are now. Then I just threw in the factor of the huge BTR supply in the pipeline which most likely will bring down rents at least a bit in the coming years which, when combined with something like a 2% mortgage interest rate rise, would potentially make renting cheaper than paying a mortgage in a few years (which arguably should always be the case given the equity being built up by a mortgagor).

Cheap labour won't feed into demand for housing at current costs, let alone even higher costs. We will even struggle to get well paid labour into the country this year (hence the labour shortage that will happen now covid is over) as there are practically no rentals available in the country; it is beyond an emergency at this point where there isn't a lot that can be done by the time the impact occurs so we just hope for the situation to resolve. As has been posted in the last few pages, just looking at the rentals available on Daft and considering whether even 500 people could be hired by a Tik Tok or Facebook or whatever and it seems unlikely. The IDA must be sweating as it gets back out on the road the coming months.

Where in you scenario do you see lower housing costs? Is this just for FTB's and renters in your eyes?

The reason I would like to get your understanding on it is because of rates rise I don't see it putting people off buying as it is not the repayments that are preventing them from getting on the property ladder. The fact that they are paying rent way above a mortgage repayment proves this.

But even if this was not the case, you will still have heavy investment from institutional investors who can get a yield of 6% from Irish property and if in your scenario where houses prices will drop they would get a higher yield which would encourage more investment,

Secondly without supply increasing there will still be a shortage in housing so prices won't be coming down till this is addressed.

Personally think it's difficult to know if investors will continue piling in for 6% gross yields when 10 year US treasuries are approaching 2% again and a fairly decent sized spike in the Euro Swap rates the past week or two (55bps as opposed to negative). If they arrived at 5 or 6% gross yields on the basis that risk free rates were negative, they may seek 7% or 8% to keep risk premia as they were (thus affecting purchase prices). Or else they won't look the Irish renter gift horse in the mouth and take the 6% gross with a lower risk premium due to Irish state contributing to the rent of over 20% of the private rental market.

What is your point? Whether or not the landlordism is absentee or not, is not the central issue. The tax issue may be central, and what do you mean by "properly regulated". You say the REITs are "extracting the rent out out of Ireland tax free". I was referring to economic rent in the sense of a surplus, in this case paying over and above what is necessary to acquire property. A completely different point and a bit mysterious in that implies that REITs are eejits to pay more than they have to.