Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

From the program they stated that of the units currently in planning. Roughly two thirds are apartments with the remaining been houses.

At a minimum you would expect 30% of houses to end up in social/affordable or in the hands of investment funds given their declared intentions to expand in both financial and geographical terms in the country

Given that developers have suddenly decided that apartments are more expensive than houses and that private buyers won't touch them. The current system is completely against the private buyer in terms of both buying, but also in terms of driving up current rents

The land and construction lobby have very quickly wrestled back control of policy and the result is the most expensive social housing in the world paid for by perspective first time buyers. So the fruits of there hard work is used against them by there government.

Let's not try to paint a picture that ffg is on the side of hardworking people trying to provide housing for themselves. The facts show the complete opposite

Gov don't claim to build 33k this year but to have an average of 33k per year over 5 years.

Cork City is crumbling in places. Huge blocks of Limerick are cordoned off for a project that's been talked about for 20 years. Lots of empty unit mainly caused by dounut planning policies. Former landmark commercial units lie empty

Using what we have more efficiently is always better for your pocket, environment

What could be done to bring back unused properties to the market?

Carrot

Allow ftb grant to be applicable to long term empty units

Pool ftb and seai grants to help bring units back to acceptable standards

Pool state resources such as councils, bord Failte and others to help reinvigorate Town centres. Convert closed businesses to housing. These towns would have spare capacity in their schools, this could save the state in other budget departments. Seen on Irish Times today Ballinrobe has 199 vacant units and 0 rentals.

Remove extortionate charges for reconnection to services. Very few services charge you to be a future customer.

Stick

Hefty tax if empty after a (to be determined) period of time.

If after a period of this tax the property remains empty, introduce a compulsory selling order.

We need to be taxing waste more and productivity less

I don't disagree that we need to use the housing stock more efficiently..... but that still does not explain how 40k of properties can be delivered...

I agree with your logic except for one point and that is that the housing market is inelastic at the moment as there are constraints on how many properties can be built.... if this can be built up over time then yes the increase in supply makes property more affordable.

There was an interesting working paper on the topic that looked at the US housing market and the impact of institutional investors and QE on the housing market that would support what you are saying in a market that has capacity to build.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2020/2020-047.pdf

The issue is not the money the issue is the capacity to build.... even if you are able to build a house cheaper it doesn't mean you can build more of them.

I get that there is a big protest vote and can understand why but I have serious questions about the SF plan as it doesn't stack up. I tuned in to the debate expecting Eoin to explain how he could make his plan work but instead all that came across was someone that was unable to answer questions.

Average salary for a tech worker is 130k?

Dublin is finished. As well as an awful housing situation Ireland also has a nasty reputation for its immigration services. And lockdowns. The next census (postponed from 2021) will be interesting..

If you assume 30% bonus (which will have a vesting period) and 10% pension (both conservative i’d suggest). €160k is ‘only’ €5.5k cash per month (110k base salary). Be bonkers to paying much over €1750. Obviously the maths changes if your partner is earning the same which may be the case!

Reinstatement of the penal laws and the cutting throats of golf course captains seems a better option long term.

I reckon the coastal properties have had their boom and with the dust settling on covid and people getting back to normal, the novelty will have worn off and some buyers will feel isolated and cut-off as well as struggling with the commute, even if only a day or two a week. The fact that mobile home was even put on the market for half a million shows how ridiculous the situation was and that it was definitely not sustainable.

It's not "finished" - but it almost certainly will (or is already) stagnating. Population growth will slow, new jobs will slow, new housing will continue to be snapped up due to high existing demand. Dublin's losses will be other cities/countries gains.

Personally, I think despite the incredible opportunity WFH has given to individuals I don't think outside of Dublin will suddenly become attractive or comparable for those used to living and working in Dublin. West Clare or Waterford or Leitrim or wherever aren't going to become these cosmopolitan areas just because a few people with good jobs moved there. The investment needs to come and I don't think it has to date. The net point is that Dublin will still be the economic heart of the country and I think the areas and communities struggling pre-covid might not kick on post-covid and achieve much more than they already have during covid, which is sad but our government is not ambitious or willing in that regard.

Of course the luas being built there had no positive impact on the value of the existing properties in the area either

I originally moved to Ireland from my own country to work, and expats like me are not going to p!ss away our lives waiting for the Irish state to get its act together. We're not coming back. And our companies know that letting us work from overseas is a hell of a lot cheaper than having to replace half their tech teams.