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Ireland's defensive frailty exposed by Russian exercise

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's really basic insurance. Denmark, similar population have a decent military, worth a look.


    Most of the time a military seems like a waste of money. But I have to stress that it's similar to a flood defence against a 1 in 100 year event.

    On a risk matrix an improbable/unlikely event that has severe consequences is a medium risk. It isn't low because it's unlikely.

    An improbable but severe consequences scenario is years down the line a Russia with heavy sanctions gets desperate. They only pick on non NATO members to avoid nuclear war. There is a direct route to Ireland via the Arctic. Russia would have a hell of a wedge between Europe and the US. Nobody would fight for us. Just like Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Already pointed it out they have a similar GDP too ,

    I've been in Denmark twice when they scrambled f16s to intercept Russian aircraft ,one case the Russians carried out a practiced a bombing run flying towards Copenhagen,

    Danes do pay more taxes but they have housing , very good healthcare and education ,and a military they are well equipped and trained



  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭drivingmissdaisy


    Mountain out of a mole hill, Russia in international waters doing what it is legally allowed to, turn of TV and don’t worry about it.

    If it was the Americans many would be excited and hoping we got to see it on the news.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    You can look at it like that if you want or you can make the case that we are astute. Managing to look after our interests via diplomacy, building relationships and utilising our international links.

    At the end of the day, it would take billions of spending on defence to "defend" our coast and airspace to the level that a proportion of the posters on this forum would like and still we would require the good will of our neighbours and friends to both assist us in raising those billions and billions of euro and after that assist us anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    We are every bit as bad?

    I hate to compare degrees of badness but that's just hyperbole.



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  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You present it like it is a static scenario with no other moving parts, that it wouldn't be opposed by the UK, US, French.

    Long before the Russians arrive the UK would have walked across the border to prevent it.

    It's incredibly outlandish.

    This exercise like the bomber runs are to wind up people in the west.

    They are trolling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It wouldn't take Billions definitely can buy a number of fast jets for less than a billion dependant on type of aircraft and role required of said aircraft .

    If we stopped over seas aid for 10 years we could divert the 10 billion give or take into the defense budget , oddly enough our overseas aid budget it bigger than our defense budget ...

    It would take investment ,but it's doable



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Buying stuff is doable but why and at what actual cost?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    We become self sufficient in been able to defend our own airspace and waters , even give our defense forces a little pride and the ability to do the job we trained them for ,

    We should be embarrassed in this day and age the defense forces hasn't the ability to patrol and defend our airspace and waters,we have defense forces families reliant on welfare to stay afloat,

    The longest term spend would be maintance which could be reduced with the right deals and treaties.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,746 ✭✭✭✭josip




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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    We should have more resources to protect the fisheries, smuggling and peace keeping. But building a defence force capable of 'defending the country' is a waste of time and money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20 hello how are you


    Ireland cannot stand up to Russia, no matter how much we spend on our military, so it would be a waste of money.

    We'd be better off keeping a friendly relationship with everyone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,075 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Of course it’s hyped up by the biased anti Russia media.

    I doubt if any live rounds will be fired by the Russians, UK subs will keep an eye on the Russians, they’ll go around in circles and then go home.

    Best advice is to turn off radio and tv though I must admit some of the loons on Liveline are good for a laugh and worth a listen.

    Post edited by Elmer Blooker on


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    So why waste time and efforts on peace keeping if we can't defend our country



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Because peace keeping and relationship building are far more efficient ways to build a safer and less violent world.

    We wouldn't be able to defend our country in any event. Simple as.



  • Registered Users Posts: 762 ✭✭✭starkid


    sure comrade, sure. hyped up. The poor Russians are the victims.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,948 ✭✭✭saabsaab



    No it isn't a waste. It need not be that expensive either, a proper radar system some anti aircraft missiles a few supersonic interceptors, a well trained reserve educated in guerilla warfare backed by a small but well equipped regular army. I know it wouldn't defeat a major power but it would make them think twice and make us not worth the cost. Think of Michael Collins making it impossible for Britain to control this island in 1921.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    I knew MC would come up at some point but in fairness it's not exactly something we would ever want to replicate again.

    Its a far different world we live in now thankfully.



  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭Gile_na_gile


    To be honest, I think that would be a realistic reposte. State that Russian incursions in the North Sea and now the Atlantic are driving European countries into NATO creating the very scenario they are supposedly trying to thwart. Repeated incursions will increase public pressure to have an actual defence force capable of repulsion with the tech mentioned in the post before.

    Then, in relation to Ukraine, there should be an agreed principle that backs up vague statements on NATO not being anti-Russian by a set of principles that actually make it official policy not to encircle the Russian Federation. As everyone knows, the whole Ukraine revolution was given wings by US spotting an opening. When it happened in Georgia, European leaders like Sarkozy (he had some positives) were able to mediate, but now as Europe has no voice and military to back it, is left out of the conversation. And no, I don't think Ukraine should join NATO....



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,948 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    It is and it isn't. Things happen out of the blue. Of course we wouldn't want to replicate it ever again but being prepared might make it less likely to happen.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Depends on how you wish to measure it.

    Part of the reason that "build up a reasonable military system" to include buying radar, a few jets, some warships actually capable of enforcing Irish sovereignty (to include a few sonars or torpedoes), and the infrastructure to do it is so expensive, is that unlike Sweden, Denmark, or even New Zealand, Ireland would be effectively starting from scratch, with the requirement to purchase all of the assets and infrastructure at once. Denmark can go "OK, we've spent the money to buy these two anti-submarine frigates fifteen years ago, now we've caught up with paying the bill, it's time to buy a few replacement fighters for the F-16s, we already have the missiles and the hangars and the maintainers... we'll look at replacing the two frigates in about another ten years".

    If you divide the cost of the capability by the number of years that Ireland should have been spending the money, it's not unreasonable. Or even if you divide the cost by the capability that Ireland would have over the future years if the money is spent to build the new base start point and then maintain it, it's not unreasonable.

    However, because the Irish military has been routinely underfunded for years to the level that they've been saying for years "we can't do our job", that shortfall has just accumulated to the point that now there's sticker shock to the idea that the money which should have been spread out over years might have to be spent in a shorter period of time.

    Post edited by Manic Moran on


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Oddly enough we could pick up 14 Saab Gripens for around €700millon ,we could have 10 flying and 4 kept in reserve to cover during maintenance ,fast light supersonic aircraft with the ability to do airpatrols and foreign aircraft intercepts ,

    And advanced radar we could then have anti aircraft and anti shipping systems which can be ued with high-tech systems and cheaper gun based systems.

    There is plenty off the shelf systems that could suit our needs



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,490 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    My argument is why SHOULD Ireland have been spending this money for the past 20 years and why should we start now - would we be any better off over those years or right not for having spent that money?

    Looks to me as there are plenty trigger happy, macho types who are in disagreement with the standpoint of the state on this but who have no appreciation for relationship building and diplomacy ahead of throwing money and potentially many more lives down the swanny.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,518 ✭✭✭monkeybutter


    Has anyone come up with a country who would be likely to invade us in the next say 50 years other than Atlantis rising from the waves



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,660 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    So the big question, have you decided to learn Russian or Chinese?



  • Registered Users Posts: 43 Kato74


    Ah The Russians are doing no harm. If you had a big ship like that to play with you would want to take it for a good spin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,941 ✭✭✭WesternZulu


    I don't think it counts as an invasion if we invited them in.

    It's a bit like saying someone is trespassing your home after inviting them around for dinner.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    There is a lot of new ways to develop military deterrence. For examples drones and water drones. Many militaries are developing ways to fight asymmetrically. Asymmetrically warfare is a military doctrine that Ireland could exploit without vast expense to start pulling our own weight. Some would not just me for military use. The air corps and navy has an important role in defending the EU's western border against smuggling.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's been decided we're only allowed to do peace keeping to keep generation snowflake happy ,

    Free hugs will be the weapon of choice ....

    But you are right we need to have a mix of systems which would be deployed in both military and civilian law enforcement ,boats , aircraft and drones nobody is talking f22 or F35 stealth aircraft but their are other options more affordable and better suited to our needs



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