Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

banie01 · 08-10-2021 11:35AM

Most on here are probably sick to death of China stance at this stage, but there's more 😂

Now just to make my own position clear on this thesis. I pulled out of most of my positions both crypto and equity, apart from 3 high risk positions that are already in the green and are being let ride or die at this point 😉

Moving to cash when I did has had a significant opportunity cost. I was early and even 3 weeks would have added a lot to the cash balance, but c'est la vie. I am fairly certain that a crunch is imminent and would rather hold the profit I have for that, than be late.

The trends in China are bearish and it can be demonstrated that even pre Evergrande, that the Bear was in play and has only accelerated on the property woes.

Interesting post over in r/Superstonk that pulls together a lot of info and makes a strong case for the Chinese Bear accelerating further. Remember one thing above else in China. Xi is no friend of foreign investors and their domestic prosperity is paramount.

If China can't hold 6% GDP growth, I can't see there being anything other than a huge and immediate credit crunch around foreign denominated debt.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q3uukg/the_global_sell_off_has_started_in_china_china_is/

banie01 · 09-10-2021 02:33PM

Some more worrying news on Chinese Financial services and property. These are the type of collapse and contagion that IMO are going to snowball in China if the CCP don't come up with a better plan than their current containment strategy.

https://m.soundofhope.org/post/552744

Ping An Bank, a subsidiary of Ping An insurance seems to be in trouble. Trouble that stems from an investment in a Property Developer called Blu-ray and that Company's subsequent collapse.

Seeing very little western news on this and WeChat isn't always the most reliable but?

It does further highlight serious ongoing issues internally both in monetary and economic risk IMO.

https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1446283536097415172?t=1iPBUxCM2LPFucomTI5bog&s=19

The CCP seem to be trying to tightly control the impact of losses and rein in any protest before it kicks off. There is only so long they can keep fighting fires IMO.

https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/china-evergrande-10082021100549.html

EDITED

To add a better English language story on the Ping An Bank issue and protests.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2021/10/09/protests-break-out-at-ping-an-bank

transylman · 10-10-2021 01:48PM

https://twitter.com/marketplunger1/status/1446992428427264001?s=20

Pussyhands · 11-10-2021 10:14AM

BABA up to 170 in Pre Market (+5.75%)

Put another 2k in Friday and may just put another 2k in today.

bob mcbob · 11-10-2021 10:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117997609#Comment_117997609

Apparently it is not just property funds - the economist last week had some articles on it and as you say the municipal authorities are in bad shape - pretty much all their funds come from property development.

Also the BRI is also heavily indebted. Behind a paywall but this shows the scale of the debt

https://www.economist.com/asia/a-new-report-digs-into-the-labyrinthine-nature-of-chinas-loans/21805124

The last sentence in this article really hit me though - the $3.6billion debt to build the Laos to China railway has nothing to do with the Laos government. This was a loan from the Chinese government to a Chinese SOE to build a railway in Laos. So any default is a purely Chinese affair.

cronos · 11-10-2021 01:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118003711#Comment_118003711

Disappointed I sold out for a tax loss at the low's but I wonder what's changed the tide here. It got up to 170's previously and dropped back harder. Might indeed be all up from here though.

VonLuck · 13-10-2021 07:45AM

The Hut Group dropped by about 35% yesterday and there doesn't seem to be an explanation for it. May be time to jump on board when it's at a big discount.

Pablo_Flox · 13-10-2021 07:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118012377#Comment_118012377

Looks like it is already on the road to recovery!

retalivity · 13-10-2021 09:40AM

Bought more ASOS shares this morn, the CEO announced he was leaving so shares plummeted. Down 60% in about 6 months, but still a strong hold for me to rebound.

VonLuck · 13-10-2021 04:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118012813#Comment_118012813

What positives are you seeing for ASOS in the future?

Atlantic Dawn · 13-10-2021 04:52PM

Tata Motors having a nice run the last week their EV plans are looking good.

retalivity · 13-10-2021 07:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015405#Comment_118015405

They're already ahead of the game with online sales and home delivery/returns, increasing market share with the the high street brands closing down and them purchasing the likes of topshop at knockdown prices, its a company I don't see going away for a while, it may not go to the moon but I think there's plenty of scope for it to get back towards the £50 price it was 6 months ago.

Timmaay · 13-10-2021 07:37PM

After "buying the dip" with crispr the whole way from 186$ down lol, I managed to get in at 93 at the open today and finally a bounce back to 98. Lets hope my persistence will pay off haha, got my average down to 137 at least. 2021 dam you lol.

banie01 · 15-10-2021 02:34PM

I sold out of a PSLV position at open and bought some $CHWY at $62 as a long.

I'm trawling some stocks now to make a risky play and the places I looked at in March have so fundamentally changed that I have a hell of a lot of reading ahead of me 😂

6 months ago, I'd have looked to Chinese e-learning and sought some consumer exposure there via EV. Now a couple of the EV stocks are still a good play IMO but the tutor/gaming industry in China has been decimated.

I may go and start reading up on India, Tata and defence related companies there may well be a long play. Modi's move to "Made in India" means there will be plenty of cash sloshing around there IMO.

17-10-2021 09:20AM

I might need a brown paper bag for Monday...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ca.movies.yahoo.com/amphtml/edesa-stock-newest-canadian-meme-143000876.html

The above article is well written. It grabs the attention of the GME/AMC hoard that pile in (god love them), but also highlights this actually is no meme stock, but a company with a serious pipeline.

There's a good chance its already too late for shorts to cover at less than stellar levels Monday.

Here's hoping!

TheFinanceGod · 17-10-2021 10:53AM

Picked up some GS upon open on Friday.

Needed to rotate away from growth stocks and purchase more "safe" plays. This was my choice. The Wall Street powerhouse is already the Dow's best performer of 2021, and their earnings were A1 in correlation. 88% YoY revenue increase in Investment Banking Revenues.

I'm confident acquisition financing will remain high into the future. This, along with their high performing market diversifications, will continue to drive profits into any market.

Buy in at $400, and will continue to dollar cost average up/down until GS makes close to 20% of my portfolio.

rugbyman · 17-10-2021 06:54PM

Chinese Whospers, I am a user of Motley Fool and have had some good results.

Did you join up with the canadian branch.

I would like to know the name of the crypto tip they have but dont want another subscription

Thanks

17-10-2021 08:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031840#Comment_118031840

ASML is my long term safety harbour - should be good for a few years. Took a dip recently.

17-10-2021 08:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118033361#Comment_118033361

No, just saw the article from a search. Sorry.

Markus Antonius · 18-10-2021 11:14AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016012#Comment_118016012

Was looking at ASOS at the start of the year but thankfully didn't buy in at the time, but kept an eye on them. Decided to DCA in on Friday after you mentioned it, now up 7%! Great call!

retalivity · 18-10-2021 11:32AM

Yeah its a long therm hold for me, didn't expect a bounce this quick though!

Markus Antonius · 18-10-2021 01:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118035764#Comment_118035764

I might put a sell order in at 40. I think there is a good chance it will recover to this point but not sure how much further it would go after that.

Pussyhands · 18-10-2021 10:33PM

Cloudflare is on an extraordinary run.

16 shares @88

Up 60% this month!

Shedite27 · 19-10-2021 09:17AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118039589#Comment_118039589

I sold up yesterday on it, the Price/Sales ratio is getting silly, and it was very extended past all the averages. Missed the boat on a few vey extended stocks last year that are still down 50% from the highs. I'll buy back in a few months if it comes back a bit.

Pussyhands · 19-10-2021 08:53PM

BABA up another 6% today.

After being down nearly 30% on it a couple weeks ago, now down just 11.4%

massdebater · 19-10-2021 10:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118045173#Comment_118045173

Glad it's turning around for you guys! Seems to have been plenty of people horsing into it on the discord a few weeks ago, happy to see it on the way back up a bit now

Timmaay · 19-10-2021 10:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118039589#Comment_118039589

Still kicking myself for selling the 80 shares I had for 109$ back in July, I thought it was overbought then and that I'd get back in at 80 again, instead it's took off hahha. Broke my rule of thumb that I only take off half the position however.

patsy_mccabe · 20-10-2021 07:46AM

Ya, I bought BABA in the dip at $143.7. Waiting to see did BUffett buy any BABA during the last quarter. 13F filings should be out soon.

retalivity · 21-10-2021 09:51AM

Someone mentioned ABF recently, they popped up on my radar as being down 17% on their 200 day moving average. Is there a brexit risk associated here? Don't they own Spar Europe wide?

Another on the list that have taken a haircut recently, that I am interested in is Anheuser Busch/Inbev.

ASOS i'm already in again, 4D I've enough exposure of. May average down LMND and CPNG.

patsy_mccabe · 22-10-2021 11:41AM

Intel (INTC) down 8.5% today on news of lower earnings. If it goes to $40 or so, you'd tempted to buy.

Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

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