Off Topic Thread 5.0

30-06-2021 09:41AM

stephen_n wrote: »

There was a report in one of the papers predicting 1000 cases a day by August. So if that comes to pass, it will be similar to the height of infections last December. What will be more interesting to see is wether the link with hospitalization and severe infection are broken by the vaccine. As a huge proportion of the North’s population is already vaccinated twice.

The infection > hospitalisation > death ratio will not be the same as previous waves / peaks.

The problem is, you only need a small % of the population getting sick at the same time to overwhelm the health service.

And having both vaccines doesn't stop you getting covid or spreading it, a BBC broadcaster just last week was in the news for having had covid despite having both jabs.

It will take a higher % of 20 - 40's catching covid at once to overwhelm the health service, but it's still entirely possible and if that happens - we go back into full lockdown despite everything.

Social media has been a reactionary, misinformed mess the last week and it's genuinely concerning to see at this stage into a pandemic how dismissive people have become.

Podge_irl · 30-06-2021 09:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

And having both vaccines doesn't stop you getting covid or spreading it, a BBC broadcaster just last week was in the news for having had covid despite having both jabs.

Yes, a highly at risk individual who ended up in bed for a couple days and compared it to a summer flu. Ultimately, its a great story, not a worry.

mfceiling · 30-06-2021 09:43AM

According to the BBC news on the radio yesterday, 80% of the adult population have 1 dose and 60% have 2.
Surely herd immunity must be close to kicking in?
There's a lower risk of hospitalisation amongst the younger generation so I don't think the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

30-06-2021 09:48AM

Podge_irl wrote: »

Yes, a highly at risk individual who ended up in bed for a couple days and compared it to a summer flu. Ultimately, its a great story, not a worry.

Loads of people who had covid felt it was just a flu - but infect enough people and enough of the reactions will become statistically significant from a health care perspective to require restrictions, even if it's a younger demographic.

"a great story" - not sure what you meant by this, do you think it's scaremongering?

awec · 30-06-2021 09:49AM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The case rate in the UK has gone from ~50 to ~240 over the course of June already and it’s still accelerating

Case rate is of no consequence any more.

Hospitalisations and deaths are the only relevant statistics at this stage.

If hospitalisations and subsequently deaths surge in NI in the next few months then NPHET will have got it spot on.

prawnsambo · 30-06-2021 09:51AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Loads of people who had covid felt it was just a flu - but infect enough people and enough of the reactions will become statistically significant from a health care perspective to require restrictions, even if it's a younger demographic.

"a great story" - not sure what you meant by this, do you think it's scaremongering?

I'd be more concerned of a vaccine resistant strain emerging tbh.

Squidgy Black · 30-06-2021 09:52AM

mfceiling wrote: »

According to the BBC news on the radio yesterday, 80% of the adult population have 1 dose and 60% have 2.
Surely herd immunity must be close to kicking in?
There's a lower risk of hospitalisation amongst the younger generation so I don't think the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

Problem with herd immunity is it's almost impossible to say when it comes in to play, but I think about 20% of the UKs population is under 18, so at the moment they're at roughly 60% herd immunity, and I think the last figure I seen for herd immunity was 75% of total population.

aloooof · 30-06-2021 09:55AM

The worry seems to be coming from the fact that the Delta variant is ~55% more transmissable than the Alpha (which was the dominant strain for the Winter spike), which itself was ~50% more transmissable than the original Wuhan variant, the obvious difference this time being the vaccine effect.

Podge_irl · 30-06-2021 09:57AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Loads of people who had covid felt it was just a flu - but infect enough people and enough of the reactions will become statistically significant from a health care perspective to require restrictions, even if it's a younger demographic.

"a great story" - not sure what you meant by this, do you think it's scaremongering?

I'm saying an over 60 year old who has had both cancer and a stroke was not massively ill after getting Covid, most likely due to the vaccinations. That is wonderful news. They massively reduce the risk of hospitalisation.

aloooof · 30-06-2021 10:01AM

Here's what's happening in the UK, who are ahead of us with regards Delta variant, vaccination and re-opening. Suggests a de-coupling in the relationship between cases and hospitalisations:

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800

30-06-2021 10:05AM

mfceiling wrote: »

According to the BBC news on the radio yesterday, 80% of the adult population have 1 dose and 60% have 2.
Surely herd immunity must be close to kicking in?
There's a lower risk of hospitalisation amongst the younger generation so I don't think the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

I am not an expert so this could all be a load of ****e:

But I wonder if this herd immunity can be hit when you have cohorts of people who are vaccinated, cohorts who aren't, and generally not that much mixture between the two. If we take South William St over the month of June in Dublin, would have been frequented largely by young people who aren't vaccinated. If we imagine being outdoors was dangerous, there wouldn't be much to stop the virus spreading.

Anyway I don't know.

I'm pretty disgusted by this latest delay. There are ~30-50 people in hospital with Covid and obviously fewer in ICU. Deaths seem to have stopped entirely, if people were still dying of Covid I'm sure ISAG or George Lee or someone would be quick to tell us. At some point we need to forget the case levels, Covid is not going to disappear. If you're younger than about 30 this govt has given you basically no reason to ever support them.

In the UK my understanding is there are groups who are reluctant to take the vaccines, I wonder if the rise in hospitalisations is in that cohort. In Ireland we seem to have very high uptake.

OldRio · 30-06-2021 10:08AM

I've just received a text for my second dose of the AZ vaccine. (I would have preferred a different vaccine, but beggers cannot be choosers ) Thursday afternoon. My 40 year old son was fully vaccinated before me which seems a little odd but I'm not complaining.
As for opening up hospitality for the vaccinated? Utter madness.

bilston · 30-06-2021 10:17AM

awec wrote: »

What's interesting about this delay is that we have an excellent control case in NI that will show us whether or not NPHETs modelling is in any way accurate.

If NPHET are correct, things in NI are going to get very grim over the next few months. I will watch with interest.

96% out of 1680 new cases in the last 7 days up here have been in people under 60. Essentially almost everyone over 60 is double jabbed. 76% of new cases are under the age of 40. The 40-60 age group are currently getting their second vaccine dose, even some in their late 30s so the proportion of cases in the 40-60 age group should start to fall rapidly.

There are 19 people in hospital in NI with Covid as of Monday night.

As has been the case for much of the pandemic, NI's numbers are being driven by Derry and Strabane. I'm not sure what they are doing up there, but they have consistently seen much higher case rates than anywhere else in NI (currently 4 times higher than Belfast).

Anyway it's clear the vaccine is working spectacularly well up here and it will work spectacularly well in the South as well. Delyaing a couple more weeks now to allow vaccine take up to increase isn't a bad idea at all. But it is clear the link between Covid and severe illness and death has been significantly broken by the vaccine, so the projections that I've read for Ireland seem hard to believe. But then those guys are the experts.

irishbucsfan · 30-06-2021 10:20AM

awec wrote: »

Case rate is of no consequence any more.

Hospitalisations and deaths are the only relevant statistics at this stage.

If hospitalisations and subsequently deaths surge in NI in the next few months then NPHET will have got it spot on.

Case rate is of huge consequence.

Every case is another chance for the virus to escape the vaccine. Look at where all the variants originated.

Plus on a purely selfish level, when your taste does eventually come back, it can be all screwed up. I know someone who can’t drink coffee any more. That terrifies me! I need to protect my productivity.

Shaka Hislop · 30-06-2021 10:24AM

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Problem with herd immunity is it's almost impossible to say when it comes in to play, but I think about 20% of the UKs population is under 18, so at the moment they're at roughly 60% herd immunity, and I think the last figure I seen for herd immunity was 75% of total population.

Herd immunity is a fallacy with covid... anyone thinking this needs a good hard shake tbh

prawnsambo · 30-06-2021 10:25AM

Ximena Unimportant Strikeout wrote: »

I'm pretty disgusted by this latest delay. There are ~30-50 people in hospital with Covid and obviously fewer in ICU. Deaths seem to have stopped entirely, if people were still dying of Covid I'm sure ISAG or George Lee or someone would be quick to tell us. At some point we need to forget the case levels, Covid is not going to disappear. If you're younger than about 30 this govt has given you basically no reason to ever support them.

In the UK my understanding is there are groups who are reluctant to take the vaccines, I wonder if the rise in hospitalisations is in that cohort. In Ireland we seem to have very high uptake.

I think the delay is to get more people vaccinated before we get to the point where there is a good deal more mixing indoors. Summer months last year saw very few cases, but they started to ramp up once September came. The cases now are comparably higher, so there's much more scope for those figures to get out of control quickly. It's happening in the UK and although hospitalisations are lower, they have more people vaccinated than us. At the rate we're going (assuming supply is constant) we should have another 1.4 million vaccinations done by the end of July.

mfceiling · 30-06-2021 10:41AM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Case rate is of huge consequence.

Every case is another chance for the virus to escape the vaccine. Look at where all the variants originated.

Plus on a purely selfish level, when your taste does eventually come back, it can be all screwed up. I know someone who can’t drink coffee any more. That terrifies me! I need to protect my productivity.

Speaking of coffee...

Went to my local coffee trailer this morning. 2 flat whites, 1 with an extra shot. €8.10. Yep...€8.10. Thanks but no thanks lads. We've hit peak coffee now.

swiwi_ · 30-06-2021 10:42AM

We are off to Croatia on holiday, staying a night each way in Italy, and with a short transit through Slovenia.

First world problems...but it's a bit of a minefield each country's covid regulations...

Won't be sad when this is all behind Europe...

swiwi_ · 30-06-2021 10:43AM

mfceiling wrote: »

Speaking of coffee...

Went to my local coffee trailer this morning. 2 flat whites, 1 with an extra shot. €8.10. Yep...€8.10. Thanks but no thanks lads. We've hit peak coffee now.

Suggest you don't buy coffee in Switzerland so...

aloooof · 30-06-2021 10:44AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think the delay is to get more people vaccinated before we get to the point where there is a good deal more mixing indoors. Summer months last year saw very few cases, but they started to ramp up once September came. The cases now are comparably higher, so there's much more scope for those figures to get out of control quickly. It's happening in the UK and although hospitalisations are lower, they have more people vaccinated than us. At the rate we're going (assuming supply is constant) we should have another 1.4 million vaccinations done by the end of July.

As far as I recall, weren't delivery of Pfizer vaccines due to slow down (albeit after peak numbers of almost 1 million across 3 weeks)? That might well be because we have a relatively high % vaccinated so need less supply, but not sure.

irishbucsfan · 30-06-2021 10:44AM

mfceiling wrote: »

Speaking of coffee...

Went to my local coffee trailer this morning. 2 flat whites, 1 with an extra shot. €8.10. Yep...€8.10. Thanks but no thanks lads. We've hit peak coffee now.

That’s Dublin top-knot barista prices

prawnsambo · 30-06-2021 11:20AM

aloooof wrote: »

As far as I recall, weren't delivery of Pfizer vaccines due to slow down (albeit after peak numbers of almost 1 million across 3 weeks)? That might well be because we have a relatively high % vaccinated so need less supply, but not sure.

Well it's still going strong this week so far.

thomond2006 · 30-06-2021 11:23AM

I don't really care about the indoor pubs/dining remaining closed. It's the sense of directionlessness (is that a word?) that is more irritating.

aloooof · 30-06-2021 11:38AM

thomond2006 wrote: »

I don't really care about the indoor pubs/dining remaining closed. It's the sense of directionlessness (is that a word?) that is more irritating.

There's a headline on RTE that reads "Consternation as ministers 'blindsided' by NPHET".

That could've been lifted, word for word, from last Autumn/Winter when they recommended going from level 3 to 5. Lessons don't seem to have been learned.

prawnsambo · 30-06-2021 11:47AM

aloooof wrote: »

There's a headline on RTE that reads "Consternation as ministers 'blindsided' by NPHET".

That could've been lifted, word for word, from last Autumn/Winter when they recommended going from level 3 to 5. Lessons don't seem to have been learned.

I'm not sure how this can not happen with constantly changing data. And the more up to date it is, the more it is likely to blindside people if there are changes.

Squidgy Black · 30-06-2021 12:06PM

mfceiling wrote: »

Speaking of coffee...

Went to my local coffee trailer this morning. 2 flat whites, 1 with an extra shot. €8.10. Yep...€8.10. Thanks but no thanks lads. We've hit peak coffee now.

The amount of those trailers and horseboxes that are going to be up for sale in about 12 months time is going to be absurd

hold my beer · 30-06-2021 12:11PM

Most of the coffee from trailers is awful stuff.

Yeah_Right · 30-06-2021 12:52PM

mfceiling wrote: »

Speaking of coffee...

Went to my local coffee trailer this morning. 2 flat whites, 1 with an extra shot. €8.10. Yep...€8.10. Thanks but no thanks lads. We've hit peak coffee now.

Am I the only one that doesn't think that's extortionate? A bit pricey but not over the top.

Squidgy Black · 30-06-2021 01:09PM

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Am I the only one that doesn't think that's extortionate? A bit pricey but not over the top.

Think the extra shot is probably what pushed it over normal pricing.

Most places in town like 3fe, Coffee Angel, Vice, Brother Hubbard etc are around 3-3.50 for a flat white.

Wouldn't be paying that sort of money from a trailer unless it was top notch though

Clegg · 30-06-2021 01:26PM

Vice on Abbey Street was my local coffee shop before the lockdowns began. Think it was €3.30 for a flat white/latte/americano. It's pretty much the standard price for any barista made coffee I think.

Off Topic Thread 5.0

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