Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

PropBuyer101 · 24-06-2021 05:19PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Has anyone else been following the apartments for sale market in Dublin?

In the last week or two supply has ticked over 1000+ (according to Daft) for the first time since I've been following

people selling second properties maybe to get in on the action!!

PropBuyer101 · 24-06-2021 05:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The same sex marriage and abortion referenda don't compare to general elections. Also, where was this magical youth turnout for the other referenda?

Again, reality check guys.

Nope. young people will vote on what affects them. and this next election will certainly affect them. and they really did vote last general election so have no idea where this comment comes from. and is off topic too.

Amadan Dubh · 24-06-2021 05:34PM

Indeed planning to sub-let some of its office space in Dublin, at Stephen's Green, in order to consolidate with its more extravagant Capital Dock setting. We will start to see a lot more ads for commercial office space being let/sub-let as post-covid WFH policies start to take hold over the coming weeks as the pandemic restrictions recede. It's worth noting that it renewed its lease at Stephen's Green pre-pandemic last year so I'd say they strongly regret that decision!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/indeed-plans-to-sublet-part-of-one-of-its-two-offices-in-dublin-1.4602509

The company renewed its lease on the St Stephen’s Green building in 2020 to provide space for future long-term growth, the spokesman said. The firm plans to sub-lease some space in the short-term, though a high quality and well-located office environment will remain central to Indeed’s strategy, the spokesman added.

Some 4,539 square metres of space across three floors at the St Stephen’s Green building is available for sublet, according to a listing with CBRE. That would be enough space for nearly 500 workers. Potential tenants must commit to taking at least 1,500 square metres of what will be newly refurbished offices, with the price disclosed on application, according to the listing.

SmokyMo · 24-06-2021 05:42PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Indeed planning to sub-let some of its office space in Dublin, at Stephen's Green, in order to consolidate with its more extravagant Capital Dock setting. We will start to see a lot more ads for commercial office space being let/sub-let as post-covid WFH policies start to take hold over the coming weeks as the pandemic restrictions recede. It's worth noting that it renewed its lease at Stephen's Green pre-pandemic last year so I'd say they strongly regret that decision!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/indeed-plans-to-sublet-part-of-one-of-its-two-offices-in-dublin-1.4602509

I dont think we will. None of the big MNCs, or other companies have given up or put their premises for lease. I know a number of architecture firms who are flat out with office fit outs with projects all across Europe.

Jmc25 · 24-06-2021 05:53PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...the only problem with this thinking is, as more and more younger people become unable to secure their accommodation needs, this starts to affect whats called 'social mobility', this in turn effectively prevents these folks from advancing to this level of behavior, this is whats currently occurring in ireland, largely due to our property issues. the more conservatives amongst us are not realising this, and are not also realising the anger thats building, ge's going forward will not be the same again, we re entering the age of disruption, and again, conservatives are not able to see this....

Exactly this. People in their early to mid 30s should be firmly in the establishment camp by this stage and they're clearly not. The age breakdown isn't great in the latest IT/MRBI poll, but Sinn Fein are on 40% in the 25-34 group. Bizarrely, the gap between SF and the rest is actually smaller in the 18-24 group - perhaps because they're not at home buying age yet.

Wanderer78 · 24-06-2021 06:03PM

Jmc25 wrote: »

Exactly this. People in their early to mid 30s should be firmly in the establishment camp by this stage and they're clearly not. The age breakdown isn't great in the latest IT/MRBI poll, but Sinn Fein are on 40% in the 25-34 group. Bizarrely, the gap between SF and the rest is actually smaller in the 18-24 group - perhaps because they're not at home buying age yet.

our current stats on the matter, '54% of 18-34 year olds are living at home', thats not normal!

Amadan Dubh · 24-06-2021 06:06PM

SmokyMo wrote: »

I dont think we will. None of the big MNCs, or other companies have given up or put their premises for lease. I know a number of architecture firms who are flat out with office fit outs with projects all across Europe.

Well we already have AIB sub-letting its office space, to name a high profile company which was reported on in the news, but the post-covid WFH policies are going to start to be rolled out over the coming months (September for some reason seems to be the month people are throwing about but I don't know the significance for this month, more likely January 2022 for longer term WFH policies). We have a floor in a building in Dublin 2 that was getting close to capacity pre-covid so were looking for additional space on another floor but covid has enabled us to work with our existing space, even with additional headcount the past year. It's only 60 people to be fair but a traditional "you're not working unless you're in the office" kind of finance place. Even 2/3 days WFH is still 40% less office space needed; it's significant.

yagan · 24-06-2021 06:15PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

our current stats on the matter, '54% of 18-34 year olds are living at home', thats not normal!

Historically intergenerational households are the norm. With the arrival of the car it was the baby boomer expansion of suburbs where land was dirt cheap that was the exception.

Amadan Dubh · 24-06-2021 06:17PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

our current stats on the matter, '54% of 18-34 year olds are living at home', thats not normal!

It's also not healthy, as I'm sure people with experience of meeting friends/colleagues from other countries where it is not the norm can testify. Putting off having a family, getting your own place etc. all delayed due to living at home well into one's twenties, it's tragic.

Wanderer78 · 24-06-2021 06:20PM

yagan wrote: »

Historically intergenerational households are the norm. With the arrival of the car it was the baby boomer expansion of suburbs where land was dirt cheap that was the exception.

depends how you define 'historical', for this period of human history, thats a very abnormal stat, and id imagine its still growing to, we re in trouble, as this now is effecting many layers of society. we have a whole pile of younger people, many well educated, effectively stuck, pension funds are also now becoming deeply exposed, as many funds are wrapped up in property markets, this is a problem which we all are truly 'in it together'!

growleaves · 24-06-2021 06:30PM

If we are experiencing a reversion to the mean of tenement life and multi-generation farmsteads then that should increase people's sense of political outrage not lessen it.

Since when have FF and FG claimed that they were merely riding a wave of material determinism? Lol

There hasn't been a drop in the standard of living of such magnitude since the late middle ages.

PropBuyer101 · 24-06-2021 07:00PM

yagan wrote: »

Historically intergenerational households are the norm. With the arrival of the car it was the baby boomer expansion of suburbs where land was dirt cheap that was the exception.

so we are going back in time then.... we need to move forward!!!

yagan · 24-06-2021 07:16PM

growleaves wrote: »

If we are experiencing a reversion to the mean of tenement life and multi-generation farmsteads then that should increase people's sense of political outrage not lessen it.

Since when have FF and FG claimed that they were merely riding a wave of material determinism? Lol

There hasn't been a drop in the standard of living of such magnitude since the late middle ages.

The 1840s were bad here, and the Year of Slaughter of 1740-41 is thought to have been even worse!

cnocbui · 24-06-2021 07:17PM

yagan wrote: »

Historically intergenerational households are the norm. With the arrival of the car it was the baby boomer expansion of suburbs where land was dirt cheap that was the exception.

Historically, starvation and high infant mortality were rife and life expectancies were far lower than at present. Apealing to historical norms vs modern expectations is not really helpful.

yagan · 24-06-2021 07:21PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Historically, starvation and high infant mortality were rife and life expectancies were far lower than at present. Apealing to historical norms vs modern expectations is not really helpful.

When you factor in the old high infant mortality rate with today low replacement rate you can see a reconvergence of social interdependence.

Ozark707 · 24-06-2021 07:44PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Well we already have AIB sub-letting its office space, to name a high profile company which was reported on in the news, but the post-covid WFH policies are going to start to be rolled out over the coming months (September for some reason seems to be the month people are throwing about but I don't know the significance for this month, more likely January 2022 for longer term WFH policies). We have a floor in a building in Dublin 2 that was getting close to capacity pre-covid so were looking for additional space on another floor but covid has enabled us to work with our existing space, even with additional headcount the past year. It's only 60 people to be fair but a traditional "you're not working unless you're in the office" kind of finance place. Even 2/3 days WFH is still 40% less office space needed; it's significant.

Anyone have any idea the haircut that gets applied to a sublet of this nature?

hometruths · 24-06-2021 07:56PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

our current stats on the matter, '54% of 18-34 year olds are living at home', thats not normal!

According to Davy's latest report on the housing market 53% of adults living with their parents are unemployed.

Which sounds like it's their employment prospects rather than the housing market that is causing this.

cnocbui · 24-06-2021 08:00PM

schmittel wrote: »

According to Davy's latest report on the housing market 53% of adults living with their parents are unemployed.

Which sounds like it's their employment prospects rather than the housing market that is causing this.

Only for half of them.

MacronvFrugals · 24-06-2021 08:03PM

Varadkar urges Central Bank to get mortgage lending rules review done 'as soon as possible'

TÁNAISTE LEO VARADKAR has called on the Central Bank to get its review of its mortgage lending rules “as soon as possible”.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, he said the measures were put in place to promote financial stability after the crash and to prevent a future banking crisis.

The rules restrict the amount someone can borrow to 3.5 times their income, though there are exemptions.

Varadkar said he welcomed the review being carried out over this year and into next year, but urged the review to be expedited and completed as soon as possible.

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-lending-rules-varadkar-5476293-Jun2021/

wassie · 24-06-2021 08:05PM

SmokyMo wrote: »

I dont think we will. None of the big MNCs, or other companies have given up or put their premises for lease. I know a number of architecture firms who are flat out with office fit outs with projects all across Europe.

Media reports that 3M have confirmed their expansion plans into Dublin city centre by going ahead with their lease deal they agreed to in April last year for up to three floors (24,000 sq.ft) in a new office development in D2.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0624/1231052-100-new-dublin-jobs-at-3m/

One story is not evidence of anything, but makes me think that WFH effect will be milder on the Dublin commercial sector than what some are predicting.

24-06-2021 08:19PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Varadkar urges Central Bank to get mortgage lending rules review done 'as soon as possible'

TÁNAISTE LEO VARADKAR has called on the Central Bank to get its review of its mortgage lending rules “as soon as possible”.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, he said the measures were put in place to promote financial stability after the crash and to prevent a future banking crisis.

The rules restrict the amount someone can borrow to 3.5 times their income, though there are exemptions.

Varadkar said he welcomed the review being carried out over this year and into next year, but urged the review to be expedited and completed as soon as possible.

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-lending-rules-varadkar-5476293-Jun2021/

Nice. More rapid house price inflation.

hometruths · 24-06-2021 08:29PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Varadkar urges Central Bank to get mortgage lending rules review done 'as soon as possible'

TÁNAISTE LEO VARADKAR has called on the Central Bank to get its review of its mortgage lending rules “as soon as possible”.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, he said the measures were put in place to promote financial stability after the crash and to prevent a future banking crisis.

The rules restrict the amount someone can borrow to 3.5 times their income, though there are exemptions.

Varadkar said he welcomed the review being carried out over this year and into next year, but urged the review to be expedited and completed as soon as possible.

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-lending-rules-varadkar-5476293-Jun2021/

Thats presumably a none too subtle statement backing relaxing the rules. Will the CB bow to political pressure?

drogon. · 24-06-2021 08:32PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Varadkar urges Central Bank to get mortgage lending rules review done 'as soon as possible'

TÁNAISTE LEO VARADKAR has called on the Central Bank to get its review of its mortgage lending rules “as soon as possible”.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, he said the measures were put in place to promote financial stability after the crash and to prevent a future banking crisis.

The rules restrict the amount someone can borrow to 3.5 times their income, though there are exemptions.

Varadkar said he welcomed the review being carried out over this year and into next year, but urged the review to be expedited and completed as soon as possible.

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-lending-rules-varadkar-5476293-Jun2021/

haha.. lets do more to increase house prices as quickly as possible rather than fixing the actual problem.

am_zarathustra · 24-06-2021 08:39PM

schmittel wrote: »

Thats presumably a none too subtle statement backing relaxing the rules. Will the CB bow to political pressure?

Reckless given the continued lack of supply. Most of the people buying now spent most of their early and mid 20s in the worst recession the country had seen, and now this flagrent pump politics in direct defiance of any sensible understanding of supply and demand. The same people will generally get the pot of houses available, but at even more inflated prices.

It's hardly a surprise this age group will make sure SF are the largest party in the country.

If interest rates increase (inevitable at some point) and you've borrow 4.5 times your income, had 2 kids and the government owns a bit of your house (or whatever dreadful idea DOB) you do not have sustainable debt. Even with the current numbers and the ability to borrow I know people with 40% net pay to debt just linked to their house. Even that is beyond what most financial advisors would be comfortable with without giving them more money

Jmc25 · 24-06-2021 08:39PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Varadkar urges Central Bank to get mortgage lending rules review done 'as soon as possible'

TÁNAISTE LEO VARADKAR has called on the Central Bank to get its review of its mortgage lending rules “as soon as possible”.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, he said the measures were put in place to promote financial stability after the crash and to prevent a future banking crisis.

The rules restrict the amount someone can borrow to 3.5 times their income, though there are exemptions.

Varadkar said he welcomed the review being carried out over this year and into next year, but urged the review to be expedited and completed as soon as possible.

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-lending-rules-varadkar-5476293-Jun2021/

This. Is. Madness.

It is almost universally recognised that the CB rules had - up until the pandemic - somewhat kept a lid on things. It was a crude instrument to do so, but in the absence of any willingness from the Government to intervene and cool things down, it worked.

Things had levelled for a couple of years prior to the pandemic as we'd reached peak affordability, given the CB rules. Now, because people have extra cash on top of what the banks are allowed lend them, things are inflating again.

If people are allowed borrow more, they will borrow more and prices will increase and people will just be paying more for what they could already have bought had the rules not changed.

But hey maybe prices will go so mad that they'll finally reach that magic point where developers will be "incentivised" to build more houses.

am_zarathustra · 24-06-2021 08:42PM

Jmc25 wrote: »

This. Is. Madness.

It is almost universally recognised that the CB rules had - up until the pandemic - somewhat kept a lid on things. It was a crude instrument to do so, but in the absence of any willingness from the Government to intervene and cool things down, it worked.

Things had levelled for a couple of years prior to the pandemic as we'd reached peak affordability, given the CB rules. Now, because people have extra cash on top of what the banks are allowed lend them, things are inflating again.

If people are allowed borrow more, they will borrow more and prices will increase and people will just be paying more for what they could already have bought had the rules not changed.

But hey maybe prices will go so mad that they'll finally reach that magic point where developers will be "incentivised" to build more houses.

I hear more sense on here than I do from any of the cabinet on this topic. You'd wonder do they actually give a damn, suits most of them to have inflated prices. Maybe a serious election loss will focus the minds

TheSheriff · 24-06-2021 08:52PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Varadkar urges Central Bank to get mortgage lending rules review done 'as soon as possible'

TÁNAISTE LEO VARADKAR has called on the Central Bank to get its review of its mortgage lending rules “as soon as possible”.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, he said the measures were put in place to promote financial stability after the crash and to prevent a future banking crisis.

The rules restrict the amount someone can borrow to 3.5 times their income, though there are exemptions.

Varadkar said he welcomed the review being carried out over this year and into next year, but urged the review to be expedited and completed as soon as possible.

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-lending-rules-varadkar-5476293-Jun2021/

I think this is more likely to happen than interest rate rises.

Lots of comments on it of late, this is political pressure from Leo.

It's a terrible idea, but likely to happen IMO

accensi0n · 24-06-2021 08:56PM

TheSheriff wrote: »

I think this is more likely to happen than interest rate rises.

Lots of comments on it of late, this is political pressure from Leo.

It's a terrible idea, but likely to happen IMO

Be hilarious if the CB then changed it to 3x. :pac:

Hubertj · 24-06-2021 08:58PM

schmittel wrote: »

Thats presumably a none too subtle statement backing relaxing the rules. Will the CB bow to political pressure?

I don’t think so. I think (Hope?) the CB recognises the variables at play here. Relaxing or changing the rules will not fix the many many many problems with the market.

24-06-2021 09:00PM

accensi0n wrote: »

Be hilarious if the CB then changed it to 3x. :pac:

The new central bank governor isn't known for setting conservative lending rules.

Quite the opposite. I wonder why he was chosen by the government?

:Thinking emojii:

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting