Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Timing belt · 22-06-2021 11:27AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Of course it's all hypothetical, speculative, opinion-based etc. but this is why we're on Boards.ie to thrash these things out. The more Boomers retiring and the more the next generations take over the management, executive, political etc. positions they occupy the more we will see a trend away from boom/bust housing markets and the commoditization of housing.

I would love to see data on the trends for home ownership in 5, 10, 15, 20 years among the various demographics as I would be curious as to whether we are trending towards the majority of the working age population being non-home owners. I won't even start on how this would affect property prices in the long term!

you will need to wait till the results of the next census for updated info.

Here is the data from the 2016 census
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/

MacronvFrugals · 22-06-2021 11:53AM

Statement from the NTMA regarding the ESRI's report two weeks ago -

State can fund more more housing despite growing debt – NTMA

The Government can borrow billions more to build houses for years to come without risking the State’s finances, according to the CEO of Ireland’s debt agency.

National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) chief executive Conor O'Kelly said that fears over Ireland’s growing debt load had been “overstated” the State still had “some room” to take on more debt even after extraordinary levels of borrowing during the pandemic.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/state-can-fund-more-more-housing-despite-growing-debt-ntma-40563576.html

Jmc25 · 22-06-2021 12:57PM

rob316 wrote: »

Reading about this Housing for All 12bn plan, are they finally acknowledging its a supply issue? You can't make houses affordable unless their is plentiful supply, all the schemes created so far have just driven demand and prices up.

There was mention in the examiner yesterday of the plan actually targeting average prices in the 300k range in Dublin. Could be kite flying but if that actually forms part of the plan it would be the first acknowledgement by the Government that prices need to fall.

The report from the ESRI, the statement from the NTMA, Varadkar' Ars Fheis speech - the wheels seem to be in motion to finally deal with the issue by methods other than a press release.

Amadan Dubh · 22-06-2021 09:06PM

In the same way we are not immune with our housing market to what happens in other countries, their house prices like ours have soared the past year as well! Are we on a roller-coaster and have just completed our climb to the top of the drop? It's a bubble, undeniably but can it be deflated in an orderly manner?

https://www.ft.com/content/3082fe00-cdb7-4eb9-ab2d-2309b9848114

House prices climb to record levels in US and Europe

US existing home prices jumped 23.6% year-on-year in May to an average of $350,300

Some economists said the drop in sales volumes could be a sign that the US housing market has peaked, after activity last year hit the highest level since 2006.

“The decline in sales and rise in inventory means that the extreme upward pressure on prices should soon start to fade,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Others see further rises to come, fuelled by central bank policies. “Loose monetary conditions could push asset prices even higher, risking an eventual sharp correction,” said Adam Slater, economist at Oxford Economics. “For central banks, neither this outcome nor persistently higher inflation are attractive prospects.”

Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, recently warned prices were at “historically elevated” levels and highlighted purchases of large amounts of residential property by financial investors.

The European Central Bank said in a report this week that in the fourth quarter of last year eurozone house prices were up 5.8 per cent on the previous year — the highest growth rate since mid-2007.

Rising prices and a shortage of affordable homes have sparked public anger at large commercial landlords in several European countries. Ireland imposed a 10 per cent stamp duty on anyone buying 10 or more houses over a 12-month period to stop financial investors buying large numbers of properties.

The most liked comment under the article says;

"“no strong signs of [a] credit-fuelled housing bubble in the euro area as a whole” - unbelievable. ECB seems to be living in an alternate reality. I thought it was common knowledge by now that loose monetary policies have driven asset prices through the roof. In some parts of Ireland housing prices have increased in excess of 50% in the last 1 year! A global pandemic, record number of people on unemployment benefits and yet prices increased in excess of 50%! This will not end well."

22-06-2021 09:09PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

In the same way we are not immune with our housing market to what happens in other countries, their house prices like ours have soared the past year as well! Are we on a roller-coaster and have just completed our climb to the top of the drop? It's a bubble, undeniably but can it be deflated in an orderly manner?

https://www.ft.com/content/3082fe00-cdb7-4eb9-ab2d-2309b9848114

The most liked comment under the article says;

"“no strong signs of [a] credit-fuelled housing bubble in the euro area as a whole” - unbelievable. ECB seems to be living in an alternate reality. I thought it was common knowledge by now that loose monetary policies have driven asset prices through the roof. In some parts of Ireland housing prices have increased in excess of 50% in the last 1 year! A global pandemic, record number of people on unemployment benefits and yet prices increased in excess of 50%! This will not end well."

I can't see how it ends well.

yagan · 22-06-2021 09:45PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

"“no strong signs of [a] credit-fuelled housing bubble in the euro area as a whole” - unbelievable.

It does seem that it is institutional investors pouring pension cash on their own bonfire. So in that respect it may be accurate to say it's not mortgages driving up prices.

Governments have allowed pension funds price workers out of home ownership so I can't see there being much sympathy for a boomer bailout when their funds implode.

Amadan Dubh · 22-06-2021 09:49PM

yagan wrote: »

It does seem that it is institutional investors pouring pension cash on their own bonfire. So in that respect it may be accurate to say it's not mortgages driving up prices.

Governments have allowed pension funds price workers out of home ownership so I can't see there being much sympathy for a boomer bailout when their funds implode.

*another boomer bailout after their bank shares crashed

flexcon · 22-06-2021 09:51PM

This is ****ing ridiculous now.

The other half just sent this to me to give them a ring. 25mins after the ad went live.

Called and they said there is Nothing really left and that the house s were already on sale 2 months.

I said - how is that? You just posted the listing just now.

She said : Facebook. I ****ing kid you not. This is a legit tale.

I am so disillusioned now.
https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/the-cedars-lackenroe-glounthaune-co-cork/3421123

Amadan Dubh · 22-06-2021 09:53PM

New homes being sold off the plans via Facebook? Jaysus.

How did that work; "like, comment and tag your bank to be in with a chance of owning a house like you see in these pictures. "

flexcon · 22-06-2021 10:18PM

Brantley Ambitious Sunburn wrote: »

any idea what the 3 bed semis are going for here?

Didn’t ask unfortunately.

22-06-2021 10:31PM

rob316 wrote: »

We dont build 100% social housing developments anymore.

I think we do.I was visiting couple freshly built locations were all houses was social.

22-06-2021 10:36PM

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

stampydmonkey · 22-06-2021 10:43PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

Didnt hear it. So when did he say it would crash?

yagan · 22-06-2021 10:47PM

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

With KBC leaving Ireland I can see why he wouldn't pull punches.

The Irish banks are already backstopped by the taxpayer so they can still piss down our backs and tell us it's raining.

tobsey · 22-06-2021 10:53PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

What time was that at?

wassie · 22-06-2021 10:54PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

New homes being sold off the plans via Facebook? Jaysus.

How did that work; "like, comment and tag your bank to be in with a chance of owning a house like you see in these pictures. "

I don't find this surprising at all. Facebook is just another marketing channel for many businesses.

It wasnt that long ago advertising real estate on the internet was completely unheard of.

Amadan Dubh · 22-06-2021 11:22PM

wassie wrote: »

I don't find this surprising at all. Facebook is just another marketing channel for many businesses.

It wasnt that long ago advertising real estate on the internet was completely unheard of.

I would agree if it wasn't Facebook we are talking about. The same Facebook that is associated with conspiracy theorists, Trump supporters, Cambridge Analytical, "fake news" etc. It's not some groundbreaking new tech there claiming to disrupt anything. Arguably, it is dying a death by a thousand million profile deletions. As well, the homes were advertised solely on Facebook, not even on more mainstream, property specific platforms.

Hubertj · 22-06-2021 11:31PM

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

Interesting you say that. I listened to Austin Hughes and he never referred to a property crash. Reference was made to sentiment regarding housing costs, government spending and concerns around the pandemic. Consumer sentiment is at a 2 year high. Perhaps you were listening to another channels or are you a liar?

23-06-2021 07:04AM

stampydmonkey wrote: »

Didnt hear it. So when did he say it would crash?

He did not say when but he said If property prices crash will happen at same time with postpandemic recovery this gona be very hard.So I would say 4-6 months
The another sign from US.There been emergency meeting this week in USA were Biden was asking Janet Yellen and other officials about warning signs in US economy and buble on stock market.

Hubertj · 23-06-2021 07:24AM

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

He did not say when but he said If property prices crash will happen at same time with postpandemic recovery this gona be very hard.So I would say 4-6 months
The another sign from US.There been emergency meeting this week in USA were Biden was asking Janet Yellen and other officials about warning signs in US economy and buble on stock market.

Again you are lying.

Hubertj · 23-06-2021 07:46AM

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

Hubertj · 23-06-2021 08:07AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He did not say when but he said If property prices crash will happen at same time with postpandemic recovery this gona be very hard.So I would say 4-6 months
The another sign from US.There been emergency meeting this week in USA were Biden was asking Janet Yellen and other officials about warning signs in US economy and buble on stock market.

Is this the meeting you are referring to or was it another meeting we don’t know about?

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/climate-agenda-biden-prepares-meet-with-top-financial-regulators-2021-06-21/

Lies don’t really support your argument when there are plenty of actual issues with the current situation.

Bass Reeves · 23-06-2021 08:16AM

Hubertj wrote: »

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that housing should be so cheap.that it should be like going on a foreign holiday or as easily available as a latte.

While I was not surprised about the income v cost I taught our overall house costs would be higher. I was surprised we were substantially behind other Northern European countries.

The housing crisis is a supply issue not a price issue and this shows it. If we manage to sort supply in Urban area we will solve the issue. Too many think it a matter of someone clicking there fingers and by magic 100 k houses will appear in 2-3 years.

We have bottlenecks with planning, labour, finance and regulations it will take a while to reach 30 k+ houses/ year which is the demand at present

It mainly a Dublin based issue but other large urban area need to be kept on track as well

Madeoface · 23-06-2021 08:25AM

Hubertj wrote: »

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

Thanks. It is an interesting read. Ireland showing its low income families are well below the norm in terms of 'burden' of housing cost relative to income. HAP is too generous is my take and the nominal rent in local authority houses too low.

hometruths · 23-06-2021 09:20AM

Hubertj wrote: »

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that I'm alright Jack.

The data includes all households, including all those who own their house with no mortgage, those with very low mortgage payments, as well as those receiving HAP etc paying a token amount. Add all these people up and you'll have a majority of the population.

If you look at table HC1.2.2. Housing cost burden of low- and middle income households as share of disposable income you'll notice that Ireland stands out as the only country where middle income renters have a higher housing cost burden than the lowest income renters. This is the problem.

These middle income renters are the ones who are suffering because they have to pay full market rents. They earn too much to receive housing assistance and too little to buy a house.

Nothing surprising about the data, nor the I'm alright Jack attitude.

23-06-2021 09:25AM

Government to sell part of its Bank of Ireland stake on rte news today

The things getting mad interesting.

Cyrus · 23-06-2021 09:43AM

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Government to sell part of its Bank of Ireland stake on rte news today

The things getting mad interesting.

why is the govt selling their stake in BOI mad interesting in the context of the property market? given that this was their intention from the very outset?

Hubertj · 23-06-2021 09:50AM

schmittel wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that I'm alright Jack.

The data includes all households, including all those who own their house with no mortgage, those with very low mortgage payments, as well as those receiving HAP etc paying a token amount. Add all these people up and you'll have a majority of the population.

If you look at table HC1.2.2. Housing cost burden of low- and middle income households as share of disposable income you'll notice that Ireland stands out as the only country where middle income renters have a higher housing cost burden than the lowest income renters. This is the problem.

These middle income renters are the ones who are suffering because they have to pay full market rents. They earn too much to receive housing assistance and too little to buy a house.

Nothing surprising about the data, nor the I'm alright Jack attitude.

I agree with you and that is partly my point. I found the comparisons with other countries interesting as some posters have commented about how much better it is in other countries. The data doesn’t seem to support that assertion.

Marius34 · 23-06-2021 09:52AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that housing should be so cheap.that it should be like going on a foreign holiday or as easily available as a latte.

While I was not surprised about the income v cost I taught our overall house costs would be higher. I was surprised we were substantially behind other Northern European countries.

The housing crisis is a supply issue not a price issue and this shows it. If we manage to sort supply in Urban area we will solve the issue. Too many think it a matter of someone clicking there fingers and by magic 100 k houses will appear in 2-3 years.

We have bottlenecks with planning, labour, finance and regulations it will take a while to reach 30 k+ houses/ year which is the demand at present

It mainly a Dublin based issue but other large urban area need to be kept on track as well

I'm abit surprised here as well. In general what i see Ireland Rents to Income is higher than other Western Europe countries, whereas sale price are lower. For the Rents Ireland likely has higher subsidy for lower income rents.

MacronvFrugals · 23-06-2021 10:02AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that housing should be so cheap.that it should be like going on a foreign holiday or as easily available as a latte.

While I was not surprised about the income v cost I taught our overall house costs would be higher. I was surprised we were substantially behind other Northern European countries.

The housing crisis is a supply issue not a price issue and this shows it. If we manage to sort supply in Urban area we will solve the issue. Too many think it a matter of someone clicking there fingers and by magic 100 k houses will appear in 2-3 years.

We have bottlenecks with planning, labour, finance and regulations it will take a while to reach 30 k+ houses/ year which is the demand at present

It mainly a Dublin based issue but other large urban area need to be kept on track as well

For all the GDP talk we're also worse off in living standard terms than many of those countries its worth noting

https://twitter.com/Aidan_Regan/status/1406977145226903552?s=20

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting