Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

random_banter · 22-05-2021 07:29PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Don't want to come across the wrong way, but this is half the problem - people have a certain area they want to live in and just look and stay within those boundaries.

Why pick an area in Dublin that is expensive - you will probably get a bigger house on the North side for instance, or in Maynooth, Navan or surrounding commute belts.

House prices and even rent are only stupidly high because people want to live in certain areas, or choose not to live in others. Or want the modern houses etc.

Post Covid, majority of office type roles and business are talking about a hybird model of working - 2/3 days in the office etc, so do you need to live in the city? If even say your are a doctor - you could always move to a hospital not in Dublin etc.

I'm sure South Dublin is lovely etc, but remember when you search myhome.ie etc that instead of searching an area, maybe search by budget just to see what you can get elsewhere.

After living in other parts of Dublin and the world we’d love to be within 20-25 minutes of our aging parents. It’s where we grew up, so it’s where we want to settle and have our own family. Our support network is there and we’ll be the support network for them.

I don’t disagree that this advice would help other people who don’t have ties to an area they want to live in, but for us it’s not about it being a nice place, it’s family and work requirements (we already know we’re required back in).

jill_valentine · 22-05-2021 07:30PM

Cyrus wrote: »

If you or anyone else has an issue with a post then report it, or set up your own safe space WhatsApp group or something where no one is allowed disagree with anyone no matter how outlandish the argument.

People want to belive he is right I presume because they want to buy a house, cheap if possible.

I don't agree with most of his angle or even his routes to those conclusions, but it seems to me there's a reflexive vitriol towards the fact he's making them at all that is not warranted.

As an example, his assessment of what Cairns' share price means - I don't agree that's very meaningful due to how many other factors could be in account.

Is it really so much less meaningful though than the REIT prices - which were being freely discussed by several journalists on social media all week - that it warrants quite personally charged swipes in response? If people are trying to divine the future from one, why is applying the same logic to another pounced on like a character failing rather than just an argument we're not buying?

The amount of daily willy waving in this thread is its least interesting feature.

22-05-2021 07:32PM

Cyrus wrote: »

If you or anyone else has an issue with a post then report it, or set up your own safe space WhatsApp group or something where no one is allowed disagree with anyone no matter how outlandish the argument.

People want to belive he is right I presume because they want to buy a house, cheap if possible.

You can disagree with his posts all you want, on thread.
I just said I don't believe it is fair to talk about a poster on thread. And I did report the post

22-05-2021 07:36PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Exactly, that's been propqueries line of questioning.

I think it's an interesting question especially in relation to social housing and the cost to build on government land.

Exactly
And no-one can answer it.
Except just because it's 'Dublin '

Graham · 22-05-2021 07:37PM

Mod Note

if you have an issue with a post, report it.

Leave the moderation to the mods please.

fergus1001 · 22-05-2021 07:51PM

once these buckos with the savings able to pay beyond the 3.5 times salary dry up there will be a correction in the market to the central bank level regardless of supply issues,

if nobody can afford it nobody can buy it

Ace2007 · 22-05-2021 08:06PM

random_banter wrote: »

After living in other parts of Dublin and the world we’d love to be within 20-25 minutes of our aging parents. It’s where we grew up, so it’s where we want to settle and have our own family. Our support network is there and we’ll be the support network for them.

I don’t disagree that this advice would help other people who don’t have ties to an area they want to live in, but for us it’s not about it being a nice place, it’s family and work requirements (we already know we’re required back in).

But if you consider the size of Dublin for instance, or even south Dublin, if everyone who is born or raised in that area wanted to live there, then the cost of houses will be sky high - that's before even thinking about those that want to live there because it might be a nice area.

What if the house prices continue to sky rocket and you are priced out of the area - what then ? Which i think your beginning to see.

I think from reading your posts, your set on area for the wrong reasons. You'll end up buying a house that you either can't afford, or isn't what you are looking for and potential end up in negative equity and be stuck - all because you want to be near a "support network".

Are you going to be in the same job in 20 years time? What if the job moves to a different location? what if you move jobs etc.

Marius34 · 22-05-2021 08:16PM

bubblypop wrote: »

If I own a site in Dublin, outright.
And I own a site in Leitrim, outright.
Can I get a house built for the same price on either site? If not, why not?

Probably not, I'm not an expert in building costs in different locations, won't tell you why. But I can tell you with confidence that same size Dublin site is much more expensive, than Leitrim, it ridiculous to think otherwise.
And if you want to sell that land in Leitrim and Dublin, would you sell it for the same price? if not, why not?

mcsean2163 · 22-05-2021 08:17PM

random_banter wrote: »

After living in other parts of Dublin and the world we’d love to be within 20-25 minutes of our aging parents. It’s where we grew up, so it’s where we want to settle and have our own family. Our support network is there and we’ll be the support network for them.

I don’t disagree that this advice would help other people who don’t have ties to an area they want to live in, but for us it’s not about it being a nice place, it’s family and work requirements (we already know we’re required back in).

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

cnocbui · 22-05-2021 08:19PM

fergus1001 wrote: »

once these buckos with the savings able to pay beyond the 3.5 times salary dry up there will be a correction in the market to the central bank level regardless of supply issues,

if nobody can afford it nobody can buy it

REITs and all the people who aren't beholding to the banks can afford it. If the central bank or government try to force property prices down, Dublin becomes even more attractive to foreign investors, with higher yield, relative to alternatives.

Property prices and affordability were far better prior to the neocon economics that espoused globalisation which has lead to general populaces becoming relatively poorer and the rich, vastly richer at their expense.

Governments allowing the rich to invest in housing at scale as yet another wealth generating vehicle, is an incredibly bad idea, IMO.

am_zarathustra · 22-05-2021 08:19PM

House prices in the UK doubled roughly from 2000-2010 and then almost doubled again from 2010 to last year. There are areas of London outstripping even this growth. This is a global phenomenon, investment in properties from funds drives increases in prices and creates the supply of renters who can't afford to buy.

The idea prices can't keep rising is simply not based on long term inflationary pressure. In the immediate term there may be a downturn but in the long term it's probable prices will rise. People who were in negative equity in the recession would have been fine if their mortgages had been 3.5 or less and properly stress tested, they could have absorbed a few years of a down turn and bar the insane 1 beds in mad areas most would be comfortably out a negative equity. Long term house prices, especially in urban areas, will probably continue to rise.

I don't like this but it's hard to see any reasonable argument against this with growing populations, more money and our obsession with inflation being almost a good thing.......Germans we are not

am_zarathustra · 22-05-2021 08:27PM

cnocbui wrote: »

REITs and all the people who aren't beholding to the banks can afford it. If the central bank or government try to force property prices down, Dublin becomes even more attractive to foreign investors, with higher yield, relative to alternatives.

Property prices and affordability were far better prior to the neocon economics that espoused globalisation which has lead to general populaces becoming relatively poorer and the rich, vastly richer at their expense.

Governments allowing the rich to invest in housing at scale as yet another wealth generating vehicle, is an incredibly bad idea, IMO.

Agreed, as long as neoliberal ideals mean speculation is rewarded with yields far in excess of normal interest rates it's inevitable prices will rise.

Plenty of people's pensions funds are also invested this way, and in fossil fuels etc but few bother investigating!

Cyrus · 22-05-2021 08:28PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

I don't get that you can get from one side of Ireland to the other in a few hours why would you need to buy a house near your parents?

Cyrus · 22-05-2021 08:34PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

I don't agree with most of his angle or even his routes to those conclusions, but it seems to me there's a reflexive vitriol towards the fact he's making them at all that is not warranted.

As an example, his assessment of what Cairns' share price means - I don't agree that's very meaningful due to how many other factors could be in account.

Is it really so much less meaningful though than the REIT prices - which were being freely discussed by several journalists on social media all week - that it warrants quite personally charged swipes in response? If people are trying to divine the future from one, why is applying the same logic to another pounced on like a character failing rather than just an argument we're not buying?

The amount of daily willy waving in this thread is its least interesting feature.

Do I understand your argument correctly? Just because some one else equally ill informed made the same argument on social media that we should ignore it here?

And I'm not sure why any of you think it's personal I don't know the person from Adam it's the content of some of the posts (and he is by far the most prolific poster in these threads) that I disagree with. If I was making personal attacks I'd have been banned like some of the people noted on page one.

am_zarathustra · 22-05-2021 08:34PM

Cyrus wrote: »

I don't get that you can get from one side of Ireland to the other in a few hours why would you need to buy a house near your parents?

His parents could be elderly and may need assistance, he may need them for childcare, or any number of things, or they just love them and having them in their lives regularly is enriching.....asking someone why they might prefer to live near people they love is hardly a question people should have to really answer.

Cyrus · 22-05-2021 08:36PM

<SNIP>

Cyrus · 22-05-2021 08:37PM

am_zarathustra wrote: »

His parents could be elderly and may need assistance, he may need them for childcare, or any number of things, or they just love them and having them in their lives regularly is enriching.....asking someone why they might prefer to live near people they love is hardly a question people should have to really answer.

It depends on your definition of near.

So by your logic if my folks live on ailesbury Road I should have a reasonable expectation of living next door?

Cyrus · 22-05-2021 08:39PM

am_zarathustra wrote: »

House prices in the UK doubled roughly from 2000-2010 and then almost doubled again from 2010 to last year. There are areas of London outstripping even this growth. This is a global phenomenon, investment in properties from funds drives increases in prices and creates the supply of renters who can't afford to buy.

The idea prices can't keep rising is simply not based on long term inflationary pressure. In the immediate term there may be a downturn but in the long term it's probable prices will rise. People who were in negative equity in the recession would have been fine if their mortgages had been 3.5 or less and properly stress tested, they could have absorbed a few years of a down turn and bar the insane 1 beds in mad areas most would be comfortably out a negative equity. Long term house prices, especially in urban areas, will probably continue to rise.

I don't like this but it's hard to see any reasonable argument against this with growing populations, more money and our obsession with inflation being almost a good thing.......Germans we are not

Yet we have people and posters in this thread advocating a relaxation of the central Bank rules the same people that complain about house prices it's lunacy

And arguing against stricter repossession laws.

Its actually hard to know what it is people want.

Ace2007 · 22-05-2021 08:40PM

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Agreed, as long as neoliberal ideals mean speculation is rewarded with yields far in excess of normal interest rates it's inevitable prices will rise.

Plenty of people's pensions funds are also invested this way, and in fossil fuels etc but few bother investigating!

While pensions funds are heavily invested in property, the fossil fuels arguments is changing due to ESG regulations.

If property investment funds didn't exist - then that is one less growth asset that is available for pension schemes - the majority of Irish people have no idea what their DB/DC pension funds are invested in, they might think oh it's a default - and not realize that there is property funds within the default growth funds for instance. So while a large number of people complain about it - they are oblivious to the fact that their pension may be invested in those funds.

Ace2007 · 22-05-2021 08:53PM

am_zarathustra wrote: »

His parents could be elderly and may need assistance, he may need them for childcare, or any number of things, or they just love them and having them in their lives regularly is enriching.....asking someone why they might prefer to live near people they love is hardly a question people should have to really answer.

But the majority of people in this country would want to do that - it's just not possible.

Do the parents for instance want their son to be up to their neck in debt just so they are living close to them? The poster has already said that the deposit he had saved is no longer big enough and the savings can't keep up with deposit inflation so to speak.

Dublin is not that big of a city - they could easily buy a house on the north side, or the commuter belt and be within an hour of the parents.

If i grew up in Howth, should their be a reasonable expectation that i can afford a house there - just because my parents are there and my support bubble, regardless of whether i can afford it?

I'm not having a go at said poster, it's just that he's already said he can't afford the deposit as it stands, so unless there is property crash - he's going to have to look elsewhere - and maybe the sooner they do that the sooner they can get a home.

mcsean2163 · 22-05-2021 09:24PM

Cyrus wrote: »

I don't get that you can get from one side of Ireland to the other in a few hours why would you need to buy a house near your parents?

Hard to know where to start. I used to spend 4 hours a day commuting to and from my South Dublin job and I lived in South Dublin. Traffic is unreal.

Imagine if you work Mon - Friday and have kids. You might want to be near your parents in order to help care for them as they get older. That's the big one.

I expect there's not many that would think, "ah it's 8.30, the kids are in bed, I'll be up to my parent (s) in two hours, have a 30 minutes chat and be home by 1am, great."

Cyrus · 22-05-2021 09:28PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Hard to know where to start. I used to spend 4 hours a day commuting to and from my South Dublin job and I lived in South Dublin. Traffic is unreal.

Imagine if you work Mon - Friday and have kids. You might want to be near your parents in order to help care for them as they get older. That's the big one.

I expect there's not many that would think, "ah it's 8.30, the kids are in bed, I'll be up to my parent (s) in two hours, have a 30 minutes chat and be home by 1am, great."

A lot of people's parents move closer to them if they need care as they get older that's an alternative.

As for your commute is that less of a factor now if you can wfh partially?

Personally I work Monday to Friday and have small kids and my parents are an hour and a half away I don't really see the issue. At least not now, if it becomes an issue in the future we can address it but that could be 20 years away.

fergus1001 · 22-05-2021 09:41PM

cnocbui wrote:

REITs and all the people who aren't beholding to the banks can afford it. If the central bank or government try to force property prices down, Dublin becomes even more attractive to foreign investors, with higher yield, relative to alternatives.

let's assume that they are successfully thwarted from the Housing market and kept in the Appartment sector, prices of housing will fall

Ace2007 · 22-05-2021 09:45PM

fergus1001 wrote: »

let's assume that they are successfully thwarted from the Housing market and kept in the Appartment sector, prices of housing will fall

I know where you are coming from, but for those that don't want to buy a family home, why is it fair that the funds can buy up apartments? It's equally unfair although targeted at a different sector.

am_zarathustra · 22-05-2021 10:50PM

Cyrus wrote: »

It depends on your definition of near.

So by your logic if my folks live on ailesbury Road I should have a reasonable expectation of living next door?

I'm not suggesting that, I am suggesting that being able to afford to buy in Crumlin or a bit out in Rathcoole or Newcastle isn't unreasonable if you've a good career and have worked hard, you shouldn't['t need to move two hours away. It would be near impossible for someone in Dublin to buy right beside their parents but within 30 minutes etc is reasonable in my opinion, especially given our poor home care and extortionate child care.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But the majority of people in this country would want to do that - it's just not possible.

Do the parents for instance want their son to be up to their neck in debt just so they are living close to them? The poster has already said that the deposit he had saved is no longer big enough and the savings can't keep up with deposit inflation so to speak.

Dublin is not that big of a city - they could easily buy a house on the north side, or the commuter belt and be within an hour of the parents.

If i grew up in Howth, should their be a reasonable expectation that i can afford a house there - just because my parents are there and my support bubble, regardless of whether i can afford it?

I'm not having a go at said poster, it's just that he's already said he can't afford the deposit as it stands, so unless there is property crash - he's going to have to look elsewhere - and maybe the sooner they do that the sooner they can get a home.

I agree, I've literally just done this myself. It's a harsh reality but something its best to face up to. Being near enough to call over easily in the evening gives you a pretty big radius really. But saying you just need to move somewhere else entirely is not reasonable.

snow_bunny · 22-05-2021 11:11PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

You're not in "grumpy old man territory" at all.

The quality is awful and asking prices are comical. "Fixer uppers" (compete wrecks) are priced as if the renovation work has already been carried out! Then you've to consider the recently increased cost of a renovation and the difficulty of getting anyone to do it. You quickly end up in lala land territory cost wise and could probably just buy a mansion for the money you'd spend.

The asking prices last summer were fairly standard and the same as they'd been for 2 years. The start of it all here was when a house near us, (small 3 bed semi in an average estate) sold for 300k, the most ever paid for a house of it's size in the estate. It went into a frenzied bidding war and was sold to a rumoured drug dealer for cash. This was like a bloody rag to a shark. Since that, every house that's come up in the estate has an asking price of about 60k more than what they achieved in 2018/19. All these houses need complete redecoration at a minimum and they're a total rip off. The 300k house had a massive extension and converted attic whereas these are zero frills. They have literally gone up in price overnight, all the estate agents seem to be benchmarking off each other and attempting to set a new price floor.

I do wonder sometimes do people not sit down and look at the PPR and realise they are about to pay 60/70k more a year later for the exact same house? I've wondered about the 1950's renovation jobs going for 340k in another part of town and the added 150k estimated restorations. Half a million to live in a semi D that's not in Cork or Dublin? I also wonder about the people who know all this and then go straight in bidding the asking price. Ffs stop doing this.

Another thing I've noticed is that there's zero way to know if bids are genuine. The whole system is wide open for abuse. People defend the registered bidding platforms that some estate agents offer but honestly, they could easily make up a bidding profile. Also, what's to stop a seller getting their friends or relatives to pose as buyers and drive up the price? All they've to do is keep bidding until you pull out and then come back to you saying the other buyer fell through! The AIP "proof" is another joke, anyone with a PDF editor can fake an AIP letter.

The whole thing is like taking a massive gamble with your life savings and your future security. Most people we know are putting off buying for a couple of years nmore now because we've all seen what happened last time and we're all paying through the nose for it even though we didn't partake.

fergus1001 · 22-05-2021 11:16PM

no it's not fair at all, in my mind the funds should be allowed to fund the building of houses and apartments but then sell them on the open market instead

basically lend money to developers ect

Donald Trump · 23-05-2021 12:04AM

drogon. wrote: »

Kind of crazy but found this house in Kilcock

Looks like it was bought in an auction in 2020 for €265,000
https://bidx1.com/en/en-ie/auction/property/40363

Was done up nicely and put on the market for €450,000; since then has sold and assuming the seller would have gotten close to the asking price as well
https://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/96-The-Village-Green-Royal-Meadows-Kilcock-Co-Kildare/4626609/

Nice flip on the house if you ask me.

Fixing pyrite issues can be costly.

BidX1 because once the hammer falls, it is the buyers problem.

Buyer spends money, fixes issues, gets all clear and sells on. That is the reason for the jump there

Ardillaun · 23-05-2021 04:49AM

Our perspectives on property are naturally shaped by the Anglosphere but we should be looking elsewhere for solutions as well. Vienna, for example, seems to have done a better job on social housing than we have.

https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/housing/2019/09/housing-basic-human-right-vienna-model-social-housing

And experienced a much smaller property bust in this century, partly because a large social housing sector tends to dampen boom-bust cycles:

https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201705.pdf

On the other side, the private sector certainly has a role to play and bigger landlords do have their advantages. When a pipe bursts I’d much rather be calling a large corporation than some DIY eejit with his ancient bag of tools.

Re: building a radically increased number of homes near Dublin, we have ‘rolling prairies’, as Colm McCarthy likes to put it, on the city’s doorstep. San Fran we ain’t. But how optimistic should we be that the nimby-loving gombeens who run this country will sort these problems out? Let’s hope they defy our expectations.

Cyrus · 23-05-2021 07:26AM

snow_bunny wrote: »

Same here, except in the west and you're not in "grumpy old man territory" at all.

It feels like the more we save the more expensive they get. We've a massive deposit at this stage but nothing to buy as the quality is awful and asking prices are comical. "Fixer uppers" (compete wrecks) are priced as if the renovation work has already been carried out! Then you've to consider the recently increased cost of a renovation and the difficulty of getting anyone to do it. You quickly end up in lala land territory cost wise and could probably just buy a mansion for the money you'd spend.

The asking prices last summer were fairly standard and the same as they'd been for 2 years. The start of it all here was when a house near us, (small 3 bed semi in an average estate) sold for 300k, the most ever paid for a house of it's size in the estate. It went into a frenzied bidding war and was sold to a rumoured drug dealer for cash. This was like a bloody rag to a shark. Since that, every house that's come up in the estate has an asking price of about 60k more than what they achieved in 2018/19. All these houses need complete redecoration at a minimum and they're a total rip off. The 300k house had a massive extension and converted attic whereas these are zero frills. They have literally gone up in price overnight, all the estate agents seem to be benchmarking off each other and attempting to set a new price floor.

I do wonder sometimes do people not sit down and look at the PPR and realise they are about to pay 60/70k more a year later for the exact same house? I've wondered about the 1950's renovation jobs going for 340k in another part of town and the added 150k estimated restorations. Half a million to live in a semi D that's not in Cork or Dublin? I also wonder about the people who know all this and then go straight in bidding the asking price. Ffs stop doing this.

Another thing I've noticed is that there's zero way to know if bids are genuine. The whole system is wide open for abuse. People defend the registered bidding platforms that some estate agents offer but honestly, they could easily make up a bidding profile. Also, what's to stop a seller getting their friends or relatives to pose as buyers and drive up the price? All they've to do is keep bidding until you pull out and then come back to you saying the other buyer fell through! The AIP "proof" is another joke, anyone with a PDF editor can fake an AIP letter.

The whole thing is like taking a massive gamble with your life savings and your future security. Most people we know are putting off buying for a couple of years nmore now because we've all seen what happened last time and we're all paying through the nose for it even though we didn't partake.

This is another misnomer if you think about the incentives for an estate agent to make up bids they aren't there, they make there money from a sale an extra 10 or 20k is a few hundred quid in commission.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting