Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

L1011 · 21-05-2021 11:17AM

fliball123 is taking some time off for a further breach of the ban on discussing immigration

optogirl · 21-05-2021 11:17AM

Villa05 · 21-05-2021 11:49AM

combat14 wrote:

very depressing report from ESRI today suggesting massive tax rises to fund public services etc, keep corporation tax at 12.5% and plug over-reliance on corporate tax receipts

Do the ESRI do any reports on how the money currently raised could be spent more efficiently as this is the elephant in the room

tobsey wrote:

The cement trucks have barely been ticking over for a decade. Those figures wouldn't give any credit to the claim that we'll have more ghost estates any time soon.

Thanks for the numbers, kind of backs up some of props claims
If we were building more than double of what was required for 5 years prior to the crash and only building 60% of what was required after the crash should we be closer to equilibrium than what we are being told

combat14 wrote:

welfare rates are far too generous here throw in a free house for life and people celebrating 40 years on the dole it is an absolute joke - and we the tax payer are the joke

If we are entering 2k per month for social housing under long term leasing, the amount spent on housing is twice the rate paid in unemployment benefit

If we wanted to tackle SW spend, the area of focus should be on housing plus if additional tax is required something would have to be done about ever increasing rents so that
A they are taxed fairly
B those that are paying rents may be able to afford a small rate of tax increase

awec · 21-05-2021 11:54AM

Villa05 wrote: »

Do the ESRI do any reports on how the money currently raised could be spent more efficiently as this is the elephant in the room

Thanks for the numbers, kind of backs up some of props claims
If we were building more than double of what was required for 5 years prior to the crash and only building 60% of what was required after the crash should we be closer to equilibrium than what we are being told

If we are entering 2k per month for social housing under long term leasing, the amount spent on housing is twice the rate paid in unemployment benefit

If we wanted to tackle SW spend, the area of focus should be on housing plus if additional tax is required something would have to be done about ever increasing rents so that
A they are taxed fairly
B those that are paying rents may be able to afford a small rate of tax increase

You've lost me here, as I am not sure how you can make this sort of conclusion based on that data.

Cyrus · 21-05-2021 12:03PM

awec wrote: »

You've lost me here, as I am not sure how you can make this sort of conclusion based on that data.

if there is one thing posters in this thread have shown me, you can make any sort of conclusion you like from any data, just make sure you post the link.

Cal4567 · 21-05-2021 12:54PM

bubblypop wrote: »

This is a great idea, even places like Bus Aras should be used like this.
Great locations with lots of space.

Despite all the negative stuff and challenges around property and how it is developed and funded, it is possible to make a good fist of it using some basic good urban planning ideas.

PropQueries · 21-05-2021 01:18PM

Cal4567 wrote: »

Despite all the negative stuff and challenges around property and how it is developed and funded, it is possible to make a good fist of it using some basic good urban planning ideas.

Last month the Irish Times reported that "Dublin Bus to examine developing its prime property sites". It's an excellent source of supply and many of their bus depots are in prime locations scattered throughout the city centre.

As their chief executive said:

"Dublin Bus has a substantial landbank in the capital, with operational depots on large sites in Ringsend, Donnybrook, Clontarf, Phibsborough, Summerhill (near Croke Park), and Conyngham Road (near the Phoenix Park). It also has a large garage in Harristown, at the back of Dublin Airport."

But instead of the state paying them, I think a landswap would be a much better use of the Government's resources instead of entering into a partnership or buying them outright which would be basically just another subsidy to the group. Either way, the government could fast track these sites and get them shovel ready by the end of this year if they truly wished IMO

And, these depots are just one example of the land that is there, all ready to go and mostly in prime and already residential areas with the infrastructure in place.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/dublin-bus-to-examine-developing-its-prime-property-sites-1.4500089

Cyrus · 21-05-2021 01:44PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Last month the Irish Times reported that "Dublin Bus to examine developing its prime property sites". It's an excellent source of supply and many of their bus depots are in prime locations scattered throughout the city centre.

As their chief executive said:

"Dublin Bus has a substantial landbank in the capital, with operational depots on large sites in Ringsend, Donnybrook, Clontarf, Phibsborough, Summerhill (near Croke Park), and Conyngham Road (near the Phoenix Park). It also has a large garage in Harristown, at the back of Dublin Airport."

But instead of the state paying them, I think a landswap would be a much better use of the Government's resources instead of entering into a partnership or buying them outright which would be basically just another subsidy to the group. Either way, the government could fast track these sites and get them shovel ready by the end of this year if they truly wished IMO

And, these depots are just one example of the land that is there, all ready to go and mostly in prime and already residential areas with the infrastructure in place.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/dublin-bus-to-examine-developing-its-prime-property-sites-1.4500089

Has anyone argued that there is a land shortage?

Lmkrnr · 21-05-2021 02:12PM

A high mortgage with extra taxation. Sounds like a FFG sucide pact.

Wanderer78 · 21-05-2021 02:13PM

Lmkrnr wrote: »

A high mortgage with extra taxation. Sounds like a FFG sucide pact.

ffg are screwed, and theyre doing it themselves, its clearly obvious that this will fail, spectacularly

gibgodsman · 21-05-2021 02:24PM

Trying to buy a house ourselves at the moment, sadly banks are only willing to give us 173k so have to make up the remainder ourselves, currently have 25k deposit, houses where we are go for 220-250 depending on the estate

Going to be a long and hard few more years of saving every penny, both working full time for the past 3 years

Wanderer78 · 21-05-2021 02:32PM

gibgodsman wrote: »

Trying to buy a house ourselves at the moment, sadly banks are only willing to give us 173k so have to make up the remainder ourselves, currently have 25k deposit, houses where we are go for 220-250 depending on the estate

Going to be a long and hard few more years of saving every penny, both working full time for the past 3 years

i think this is all coming to ahead now, so hopefully something dramatic changes for you and your partner, in order to make the process easier, best of luck

PropQueries · 21-05-2021 02:42PM

Interesting letters to the editor in the Irish Independent today in relation to their readers opinions on the Government's housing actions this week.

One letter to the editor states that:

"Fine Gael’s mask has slipped regarding our housing crisis...when Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that housing was the Government’s number one priority, Mr Varadkar wanted to know when this was decided...So now we have the truth...Good luck to Fine Gael in the next election...it will need it."

Another letter to the editor asks:

"With regard to the 10pc stamp duty for multiple purchases of new housing stock, am I the only person who sees that this is almost beyond a joke?"

Both letters kind of sum up what many people in Ireland now think IMO

Link to Letters to the Editor in the Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/letters/fine-gaels-mask-has-slipped-regarding-our-housing-crisis-40447037.html

Cal4567 · 21-05-2021 03:00PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/private-sector-to-build-majority-of-housing-under-government-targets-1.4570897

This in today’s IT does show some thinking into how the learned minds in the Department of Housing and Economic Social and Research Institute view our property future, although getting to 33,000 new properties each and every year is still some way off.

Assuming it were possible, the 33,000 would be made up of 11,800 private homes (35.76%), 5,600 private rental sector (16.97%), 4,100 new affordable homes (some sale/some rent?) (12.42%) and 10,300 (31.21%). These percentages don’t actually add up completely to 100%. I hope their other analysis to arrive at these conclusions were based on a sounder footing.

So, around a third new private sale homes, maybe a small number more if some of those proposed affordable units are for sale.

mcsean2163 · 21-05-2021 03:13PM

This weeks all Ireland myhome figures.

date total
17/05/2021 12002
19/05/2021 11990
21/05/2021 11972

Not going in the right direction...

DataDude · 21-05-2021 03:27PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

This weeks all Ireland myhome figures.

date total
17/05/2021 12002
19/05/2021 11990
21/05/2021 11972

Not going in the right direction...

The strong upward surge that had been occurring for the last 3 weeks definitely stopped this week. That said, even when it is growing, it does so on Friday evening - Sunday. Falls throughout Monday - Friday then jumps when you check again the following Monday. Hopefully same again next week.

Must just be how the EAs bulk upload them.

PropQueries · 21-05-2021 03:30PM

Cal4567 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/private-sector-to-build-majority-of-housing-under-government-targets-1.4570897

This in today’s IT does show some thinking into how the learned minds in the Department of Housing and Economic Social and Research Institute view our property future, although getting to 33,000 new properties each and every year is still some way off.

Assuming it were possible, the 33,000 would be made up of 11,800 private homes (35.76%), 5,600 private rental sector (16.97%), 4,100 new affordable homes (some sale/some rent?) (12.42%) and 10,300 (31.21%). These percentages don’t actually add up completely to 100%. I hope their other analysis to arrive at these conclusions were based on a sounder footing.

So, around a third new private sale homes, maybe a small number more if some of those proposed affordable units are for sale.

There really doesn't appear to be a plan outside of keeping rents at near enough the highest levels in the EU in order to keep attracting the funds into the market over the next ten years. Even that really isn't a plan as it's dependent on interest rates remaining at existing levels for the next ten years IMO

Given that small developers can obviously buy a site, build and sell a-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses down the country for c. €200k all in, why doesn't the state just parcel out their vast landbanks in Co. Dublin to these smaller developers and tell them to build.

Give 50 sites to each small developer and tell them that the site is free, no levies, no infrastructure costs, no tax on profits, no VAT etc. as long as they sell the end house for a maximum of c. €150k.

They would gladly accept such an offer and more importantly actually deliver IMO

timmyntc · 21-05-2021 03:35PM

PropQueries wrote: »

There really doesn't appear to be a plan outside of keeping rents at near enough the highest levels in the EU in order to keep attracting the funds into the market over the next ten years. Even that really isn't a plan as it's dependent on interest rates remaining at existing levels for the next ten years IMO

Given that small developers can obviously buy a site, build and sell a-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses down the country for c. €200k all in, why doesn't the state just parcel out their vast landbanks in Co. Dublin to these smaller developers and tell them to build.

Give 50 sites to each small developer and tell them that the site is free, no levies, no infrastructure costs, no tax on profits, no VAT etc. as long as they sell the end house for a maximum of c. €150k.

They would gladly accept such an offer and more importantly actually deliver IMO

Not a notion that would happen - not a very efficient use of valuable land either. We need to find a way to reduce the cost of building apartments - per unit they should be much cheaper than the equivalent house due to the bulk nature of developments and cheaper land prices - clearly thats not the case right now so the government should intervene to make it cheaper - although most govt intervention rarely has the intended results.

mcsean2163 · 21-05-2021 03:37PM

DataDude wrote: »

The strong upward surge that had been occurring for the last 3 weeks definitely stopped this week. That said, even when it is growing, it does so on Friday evening - Sunday. Falls throughout Monday - Friday then jumps when you check again the following Monday. Hopefully same again next week.

Must just be how the EAs bulk upload them.

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Lmkrnr · 21-05-2021 03:56PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Great news for anyone selling to move abroad. Anyone who bought the properties for sale in early 00s would have doubled in value at minimum.

Also how many people gave up a house when it was negative just to see the same house now back to or above the price they would of purchased it for.

PropQueries · 21-05-2021 04:03PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

JohnnyChimpo · 21-05-2021 04:12PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

Really? Better than Netflix or Tesla? Wild.

Thank you for this latest reading of the tea-leaves though, it will be filed in the same place as the others

Marius34 · 21-05-2021 04:16PM

PropQueries wrote: »

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

"Cairn Homes sees revenue and profits tumble due to ‘material’ impact of Covid"
"Gross profit fell by almost 50pc to €42.7m in 2020 from €85.3m the prior year, according to annual results from the group."

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/cairn-homes-sees-revenue-and-profits-tumble-due-to-material-impact-of-covid-40157190.html

mcsean2163 · 21-05-2021 04:17PM

PropQueries wrote: »

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

Actually may not be quite as bad as I thought. Here's one without the apostrophe before the s.

03/11/2017 €546,000.00 46A QUINNS ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18

DataDude · 21-05-2021 04:21PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Nice house. South(ish) facing garden. Lot of potential. Don't know Shankill pricing that well but doesn't seem the worst value wise?

2018 was a big year for house prices so anything sold pre then is going to look very cheap in today's terms. That said I don't think they're equivalent. Looks like 26 is a solid 50% bigger than 79 was. Not disagreeing with your nosebleed prices comment though!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/79-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/3851810

PropQueries · 21-05-2021 04:21PM

Marius34 wrote: »

"Gross profit fell by almost 50pc to €42.7m in 2020 from €85.3m the prior year, according to annual results from the group."

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/cairn-homes-sees-revenue-and-profits-tumble-due-to-material-impact-of-covid-40157190.html

Well, their share price in December 2019 (pre-covid) was c. €1.30. Still well below their 2017 heights of c. €2.00.

They also purchased many of their sites for c. €15k each, so should have a cost advantage over most of the developers who entered the market later on.

To me, that signals that investors don't truly believe this housing shortage narrative and that they believe either this Government or the next Government will most likely unlock all the post-crash supply that's most likely still hanging around in the background in the near future IMO

Cyrus · 21-05-2021 04:27PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, their share price in December 2019 (pre-covid) was c. €1.30. Still well below their 2017 heights of c. €2.00.

They also purchased many of their sites for c. €15k each, so should have a cost advantage over most of the developers who entered the market later on.

To me, that signals that investors don't truly believe this housing shortage narrative and that they believe either this Government or the next Government will most likely unlock all the post-crash supply that's most likely still hanging around in the background in the near future IMO

unless you have sat down and worked out what the cairn business is worth, what earnings they are likely to produce over the next 5-10 years and thus what a share should be worth please stop.

Villa05 · 21-05-2021 04:38PM

Marius34 wrote:

"Cairn Homes sees revenue and profits tumble due to â€˜materialâ€™ impact of Covid" "Gross profit fell by almost 50pc to â‚¬42.7m in 2020 from â‚¬85.3m the prior year, according to annual results from the group."

I thought share price was forward looking, anyone know how it compares to UK builders performance over the same period

mcsean2163 · 21-05-2021 04:44PM

Cyrus wrote: »

unless you have sat down and worked out what the cairn business is worth, what earnings they are likely to produce over the next 5-10 years and thus what a share should be worth please stop.

Are you suggesting that only an actuary who has specifically studied the cairn business should be allowed to comment on cairn on an anonymous forum?

That strikes me as bullying.

wassie · 21-05-2021 04:49PM

No. I take it as saying you cant read anything into the share price of a company over the short term.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting