Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Zenify · 20-05-2021 10:23AM

Anyone hear anything about an amendment to the housing bill to include all homes?

I assume it is by SF and so will not pass but I couldn't see any articles about it online?

awec · 20-05-2021 10:28AM

Zenify wrote: »

Anyone hear anything about an amendment to the housing bill to include all homes?

I assume it is by SF and so will not pass but I couldn't see any articles about it online?

Is that not the one that was defeated last night?

Zenify · 20-05-2021 10:40AM

awec wrote: »

Is that not the one that was defeated last night?

yeah, found a link that talks about it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2021/0518/1222462-dail-housing/

I'm not one to moan about politics but by God I'm unhappy with how things are going at the moment. And it's not just my situation I'm unhappy about, it's the entire country. I'm mostly unhappy about this because of all the poor single people out there... I'm married so not looking for an apartment.

I wonder is there something underneath all of this to encourage people to couple up and have children to support all the old people who caused the mess....

MacronvFrugals · 20-05-2021 10:46AM

Villa05 wrote: »

Are we not at 2,5k per month for social housing. That's unaffordable for the majority of workers

Maybe we should get monkeys to run the country

FG appointed Conor Skehan to chair of the housing agency and he continually declares that there is no housing crisis and that our housing market is normal

On Brendan O' Connors's show last August Skehan proclaimed "Dublin will be a city for the wealthy in the future"

jill_valentine · 20-05-2021 10:52AM

Zenify wrote: »

yeah, found a link that talks about it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2021/0518/1222462-dail-housing/

I'm not one to moan about politics but by God I'm unhappy with how things are going at the moment. And it's not just my situation I'm unhappy about, it's the entire country. I'm mostly unhappy about this because of all the poor single people out there... I'm married so not looking for an apartment.

I wonder is there something underneath all of this to encourage people to couple up and have children to support all the old people who caused the mess....

If there is, it's the opposite that's happening. People are putting off having families because they haven't got space or security for it, and people living in 5 person house shares or back with mam and dad are going to find it hard to couple up.

I know a couple of folks in their late twenties who all live at home and sometimes treat themselves to a night in the hotel just down the road with their gf/bf. They just take it for granted that privacy is a luxury, a place only to yourselves is something for special occasions.

That's not very condusive to functional adult relationships and I think it's one of the under-discussed aspects of the crisis, the actual material effect it has on people's personal lives.

Geuze · 20-05-2021 10:58AM

timmyntc wrote: »

In fairness that is the right approach - we want REITs to add to supply, not buy existing supply.

Right now between REIT and council we have extra demand but no extra supply.

Surely the whole point of a REIT is to own property?

Do REITs get involved in development, i.e. buying sites, getting planning, design, etc.?

timmyntc · 20-05-2021 11:01AM

Geuze wrote: »

Surely the whole point of a REIT is to own property?

Do REITs get involved in development, i.e. buying sites, getting planning, design, etc.?

They can contract/tender out the whole process - indeed some actually do already.
Its the same as if they bought afterwards, only they put the finance up front, which is handier for the developers too.

And sure at the end of the day it will cost the same as buying a block thats already built - which is the end goal, to own property and get a rental yield on it.

Jmc25 · 20-05-2021 11:47AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense FF know deep down its a shift to the left or annihilation

Certainly on housing anyway. I've no fondness for FF but when they took housing in the current government I imagined they were being their usual pragmatic selves - having seen the SF surge on the back of the housing issue in the last election they'd shift policy direction in that area to the left. Not only have they not changed direction, they've doubled down on developer-led policies with the shared equity scheme.

Either FF lurch fairly hard to the left on housing fairly soon or they're looking at total wipeout in the next election. It's them losing votes to SF, not FG.

Zenify · 20-05-2021 11:52AM

Jmc25 wrote: »

Either FF lurch fairly hard to the left on housing fairly soon or they're looking at total wipeout in the next election. It's them losing votes to SF, not FG.

I've always voted FF in the past. You could say FF is in my family. But I won't vote for them again. Even my mother who has done loads of work for the party during her life is even contemplating not voting FF.

I won't vote FG either. I don't like SF.... but what other options have we got? I think most people will vote SF to see if they can live up to their promises. I doubt they will but I'm going to give them a chance anyway.

PropQueries · 20-05-2021 11:57AM

Jmc25 wrote: »

Certainly on housing anyway. I've no fondness for FF but when they took housing in the current government I imagined they were being their usual pragmatic selves - having seen the SF surge on the back of the housing issue in the last election they'd shift policy direction in that area to the left. Not only have they not changed direction, they've doubled down on developer-led policies with the shared equity scheme.

Either FF lurch fairly hard to the left on housing fairly soon or they're looking at total wipeout in the next election. It's them losing votes to SF, not FG.

It never made sense to me that Micheal Martin accepted the money hungry Departments of Housing, Health and Public Expenditure while leaving the purse strings firmly in the grasp of FG.

FG have little incentive to help out FF in either housing, health or public expenditure as the Minister for Finance/Fine Gael most likely won't be held responsible for the state of these departments come next election IMO

The only thing that FF can do to salvage themselves in implement proper reforms that don't cost these departments anything (as Pascal won't be providing much help IMO) but that also doesn't appear likely.

awec · 20-05-2021 12:02PM

PropQueries wrote: »

It never made sense to me that Micheal Martin accepted the money hungry Departments of Housing, Health and Public Expenditure while leaving the purse strings firmly in the grasp of FG.

FG have little incentive to help out FF in either housing, health or public expenditure as the Minister for Finance/Fine Gael most likely won't be held responsible for the state of these departments come next election IMO

The only thing that FF can do to salvage themselves in implement proper reforms that don't cost these departments anything (as Pascal won't be providing much help IMO) but that also doesn't appear likely.

Because if he had hid away from these departments his party would have been a laughing stock.

Housing and Health were the biggies during the last election, how can you win an election and then pass on these?

Shelga · 20-05-2021 12:03PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

If there is, it's the opposite that's happening. People are putting off having families because they haven't got space or security for it, and people living in 5 person house shares or back with mam and dad are going to find it hard to couple up.

I know a couple of folks in their late twenties who all live at home and sometimes treat themselves to a night in the hotel just down the road with their gf/bf. They just take it for granted that privacy is a luxury, a place only to yourselves is something for special occasions.

That's not very condusive to functional adult relationships and I think it's one of the under-discussed aspects of the crisis, the actual material effect it has on people's personal lives.

Well articulated. I agree. Having been at home for nearly 3 years now, you just kind of opt out of romance as it feels pointless. Now, it's not completely the government's fault that I don't put myself out there very much, but you do just feel like it's years and years before your life can really begin, plus you have to get to a certain quite high salary. It doesn't matter how much of your net pay you're saving if you're on €30k in Dublin and trying to buy, as a single person.

Mad_maxx · 20-05-2021 12:05PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense FF know deep down its a shift to the left or annihilation

since Martin became leader , they have shifted sharply to the left and are doing worse than ever

Bass Reeves · 20-05-2021 12:08PM

timmyntc wrote: »

In fairness that is the right approach - we want REITs to add to supply, not buy existing supply.

Right now between REIT and council we have extra demand but no extra supply.

People forget to fat there is a natural limit to supply. This is mainly down to labour and materials supply. The biggest issue is the punt of labour available. I know no construction worker that is unemployed and no builder not going full tilt. If you want a plumber or electrician to repair something at home be prepared for a 2 week wait. For do any normal work its 3 months +

The way Reits add to supply is mainly by financing projects. Timmy Dooley was talking about trying to get to 35k houses build a year. I cannot see where it will come from

Geuze wrote: »

Surely the whole point of a REIT is to own property?

Do REITs get involved in development, i.e. buying sites, getting planning, design, etc.?

No Reits do not get involved in buying sites or getting planning. What they do is finance builders to build houses or Apartments. While builders can finance house building on a partial scale pre selling to some houses to a REIT may allow them to carry out the development faster.

With apartment blocks there are a necessity as banks are unwilling to finance apartment blocks. Take an Apartment block with some commercial units on the ground floor and maybe offices you could be looking for 50 million in finance for 2-3 years for building costs. Banks are unwilling to get involved in these types of projects any longer

timmyntc · 20-05-2021 12:13PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

People forget to fat there is a natural limit to supply. This is mainly down to labour and materials supply. The biggest issue is the punt of labour available. I know no construction worker that is unemployed and no builder not going full tilt. If you want a plumber or electrician to repair something at home be prepared for a 2 week wait. For do any normal work its 3 months +

Of course, labour and materials will eventually reach a shortage situation - but remember that post-08 so much of our industry left entirely, as activity started to ramp up again we quickly reached "shortage" but the industry itself expanded to meet the demand. The fact our construction industry now is so much bigger than in say 2012 is proof enough of that.

Of course construction cannot expand indefinitely, but I believe there is still a long ways to go and plenty more scope for more labour to come into the country and materials to be imported. The govt can and should facilitate this - long term projects like trade schools would help certainly.

Lmkrnr · 20-05-2021 12:15PM

What was the housing situation like 10 year's ago. Houses were going for small change during the crash, if the government at the time could of foreseen the housing shortage it could of got access to all the stock NAMA snapped up. Hindsight I know.

Fast forward to now where bot only is there a housing shortage but rents are high to. Paddy the tax payer is paying for the HAP ect as these prices go up. Tommy the trust fund manager pays no tax on the houses he rents that the tax payer fund's. The system is wrong. Hopefully it won't last

handlemaster · 20-05-2021 12:18PM

Lmkrnr wrote: »

What was the housing situation like 10 year's ago. Houses were going for small change during the crash, if the government at the time could of foreseen the housing shortage it could of got access to all the stock NAMA snapped up. Hindsight I know.

Fast forward to now where bot only is there a housing shortage but rents are high to. Paddy the tax payer is paying for the HAP ect as these prices go up. Tommy the trust fund manager pays no tax on the houses he rents that the tax payer fund's. The system is wrong. Hopefully it won't last

Government was bailed out. the same logic can go for buyers there was lots of time to pick up property at lower prices to today.

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 12:21PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Are we not at 2,5k per month for social housing. That's unaffordable for the majority of workers

Maybe we should get monkeys to run the country

no we arent.

There are some social units that are at that but the overall average will be way below this.

Now should we be paying 2.5k a month for any social housing, absolutely not, its a stupid knee jerk reaction instead of long term planning.

PropQueries · 20-05-2021 12:38PM

Cyrus wrote: »

no we arent.

There are some social units that are at that but the overall average will be way below this.

Now should we be paying 2.5k a month for any social housing, absolutely not, its a stupid knee jerk reaction instead of long term planning.

Isn't that the same type of argument Leo Varadkar used a few days ago when he appeared to dismiss the fact that there is an overall home ownership problem in Ireland i.e. what home ownership problem?:

"the Tánaiste acknowledged that the Government needs to do far more to improve housing supply. He also acknowledged the fall in home ownership but said - that at 65-70pc – the Irish rate was still higher than USA, UK, France, Germany and elsewhere."

Link to Leo's statement in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-is-anti-home-ownership-leo-varadkar-clashes-with-pearse-doherty-40423232.html

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 12:45PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Isn't that the same type of argument Leo Varadkar used a few days ago when he appeared to dismiss the fact that there is an overall home ownership problem in Ireland i.e. what home ownership problem?:

"the Tánaiste acknowledged that the Government needs to do far more to improve housing supply. He also acknowledged the fall in home ownership but said - that at 65-70pc – the Irish rate was still higher than USA, UK, France, Germany and elsewhere."

Link to Leo's statement in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-is-anti-home-ownership-leo-varadkar-clashes-with-pearse-doherty-40423232.html

wouldnt be like you to conflate two completely different things.

maybe you have rumbled who i really am?!?

awec · 20-05-2021 12:47PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Isn't that the same type of argument Leo Varadkar used a few days ago when he appeared to dismiss the fact that there is an overall home ownership problem in Ireland i.e. what home ownership problem?:

"the Tánaiste acknowledged that the Government needs to do far more to improve housing supply. He also acknowledged the fall in home ownership but said - that at 65-70pc – the Irish rate was still higher than USA, UK, France, Germany and elsewhere."

Link to Leo's statement in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-is-anti-home-ownership-leo-varadkar-clashes-with-pearse-doherty-40423232.html

The mind genuinely boggles at how you interpret news articles.

Leo Varadkar : "the government needs to do far more to improve housing supply".

PropQueries: "Leo Varadkar says there's no housing problem".

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 01:00PM

genericgoon wrote: »

Vacant house/site levies are far too easy to get around. Would make more sense to increase local property tax (LPT) substantially and then give an exemption/credit based on declaration to Revenue that the house is a principal private residence (PPR) and thus switch around the burden of proof and thus ability to punish those making false statements.

In addition, a benchmark of a fair rental contract should be introduced with controlled rents. "Fair" rent could be on the basis of equivalent cost rental or tied explicitly to median incomes (my preference), then give these the same LPT exemption/credit as PPRs. Would also give an opportunity to set a standardized contract that removes the biggest sources of tension between tenants (withheld deposits, maintenance) and landlords (anti-social behaviour, unpaid rent) with clauses relating to third party deposit holding, removing all non-payment related eviction criteria and other needed changes. Offer a fast track RTB scheme (since contract will be known a priori) which means better outcomes against bad landlords (maintenance) and bad tenants (faster eviction for non-payment).

Then introduce a site tax for all undeveloped (and classify it as undeveloped until the houses/apartments are eligible for LPT) zoned land and ramp this up way high and use that revenue to reduce development levies and/or VAT on building. Reform the SHD legislation to be more Japan-like i.e. if your development is consistent with local development plan then can be fast tracked. That should hopefully give a leg up to those who want to build rather than speculative chancers looking to increase site values with deliberately provocative plans.

A lot of people would likely lose money quickly on the above (banks, holiday home owners, developers etc. etc.) but at this point the long term costs of not doing so will be much bigger thanks to emigration, misplaced investment, poverty/homelessness etc.

The Irish tax take from property taxes already exceeds the OECD average.

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 01:09PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

People forget to fat there is a natural limit to supply. This is mainly down to labour and materials supply. The biggest issue is the punt of labour available. I know no construction worker that is unemployed and no builder not going full tilt. If you want a plumber or electrician to repair something at home be prepared for a 2 week wait. For do any normal work its 3 months +

The way Reits add to supply is mainly by financing projects. Timmy Dooley was talking about trying to get to 35k houses build a year. I cannot see where it will come from

No Reits do not get involved in buying sites or getting planning. What they do is finance builders to build houses or Apartments. While builders can finance house building on a partial scale pre selling to some houses to a REIT may allow them to carry out the development faster.

With apartment blocks there are a necessity as banks are unwilling to finance apartment blocks. Take an Apartment block with some commercial units on the ground floor and maybe offices you could be looking for 50 million in finance for 2-3 years for building costs. Banks are unwilling to get involved in these types of projects any longer

Their is little to no evidence REIT's are funding supply, and significant evidence they are competing for supply and hoovering up completed supply just before they get to market. Them buying up - not funding - 95% of apartments built in Dublin in 2019, for instance.

Mad_maxx · 20-05-2021 01:20PM

Lmkrnr wrote: »

What was the housing situation like 10 year's ago. Houses were going for small change during the crash, if the government at the time could of foreseen the housing shortage it could of got access to all the stock NAMA snapped up. Hindsight I know.

Fast forward to now where bot only is there a housing shortage but rents are high to. Paddy the tax payer is paying for the HAP ect as these prices go up. Tommy the trust fund manager pays no tax on the houses he rents that the tax payer fund's. The system is wrong. Hopefully it won't last

government chose to shield Public Servant retirees , not touch pensions in general , there was no money left to buy up property left right and centre so todays thirty somethings got fcuked under the bus

Marius34 · 20-05-2021 01:27PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Their is little to no evidence REIT's are funding supply, and significant evidence they are competing for supply and hoovering up completed supply just before they get to market. Them buying up - not funding - 95% of apartments built in Dublin in 2019, for instance.

I don't think that's precise. The only apartment building, completed in 2019, I'm aware of is Capital Dock. I think landlord Kennedy Wilson was part of the development, before completion.
Where there any other big apartment blocks completion in 2019?

L1011 · 20-05-2021 01:30PM

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1395342746123124737

One of the three parties of Government does not appear to be aware that the requirement for every apartment to have a parking space was removed some years ago in areas with acceptable public transport. The one with the transport portfolio, at that!

Murph85 · 20-05-2021 01:32PM

I agree with him .multi storey car park nearby at reasonable yearly rates or use gocar or dont have a car...

Eclectic Econometrics · 20-05-2021 01:33PM

I have read a lot about price increases at the bottom (200-300k) and middle (450-600k) of the market due to bidding wars but from what I have seen at the upper (1m+) and top end (8 fig net worth individuals type houses) my anecdotal impression, from looking at listed prices and final sales prices, is that there is downward negotiation taking place. Not much, but when you knock 5-7% off 1.5 it is still a decent chunk of change.

This house however... I still can't post links, Google "5 Rocky Valley Crescent, Kilmacanogue, Co. Wicklow"..... was first listed for €900,000 and, 2 months later, is now being touted for 1.2. Is anyone buying, or just watching prices, around the €1m mark and have you also seen increases?

With regards to the house itself, I personally think you are better off paying a couple of hundred grand more and living in a more private house in Rathmichael and not have your neighbour directly opposite. I think where there is a discrepancy in house prices in Ireland, as compared to London, is what you get for your money in terms of convenience. Someone touched on something similar (geographical discrepancy) earlier but talked about England/UK as a whole. One day I will formulate exactly what I am talking about, with proper examples, when I have more time.

L1011 · 20-05-2021 01:33PM

Murph85 wrote: »

I agree with him .multi storey car park nearby at reasonable yearly rates or use gocar or dont have a car...

As did the previous Government, hence that's now the regs. Its not going to reduce the cost of apartments by anything now as its already happening!

awec · 20-05-2021 01:36PM

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I have read a lot about price increases at the bottom (200-300k) and middle (450-600k) of the market due to bidding wars but from what I have seen at the upper (1m+) and top end (8 fig net worth individuals type houses) my anecdotal impression, from looking at listed prices and final sales prices, is that there is downward negotiation taking place. Not much, but when you knock 5-7% off 1.5 it is still a decent chunk of change.

This house however... I still can't post links, Google "5 Rocky Valley Crescent, Kilmacanogue, Co. Wicklow"..... was first listed for €900,000 and, 2 months later, is now being touted for 1.2. Is anyone buying, or just watching prices, around the €1m mark and have you also seen increases?

With regards to the house itself, I personally think you are better off paying a couple of hundred grand more and living in a more private house in Rathmichael and not have your neighbour directly opposite. I think where there is a discrepancy in house prices in Ireland, as compared to London, is what you get for your money in terms of convenience. Someone touched on something similar (geographical discrepancy) earlier but talked about England/UK as a whole. One day I will formulate exactly what I am talking about, with proper examples, when I have more time.

The biggest thing going against that house is the location. It's the wrong side of the N11, there is nothing over there.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting