2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

MacronvFrugals · 09-05-2021 11:13PM

When we talk about multiple banks leaving etc would the Taoiseach just admitting the below to the paper of record not spook many relying on the property market in one way or the other

“The State actually through one scheme or another is the big actor now in housing provision and what was announced last week by the Minister [Darragh O’Brien] relates to affordable housing,” he said.

Wasn’t Props called a conspiracy theorist for stating exactly what the Taoiseach said

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/housing-is-number-one-crisis-facing-young-people-taoiseach-1.4559764?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

hometruths · 09-05-2021 11:26PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

When we talk about multiple banks leaving etc would the Taoiseach just admitting the below to the paper of record not spook many relying on the property market in one way or the other

Wasn’t Props called a conspiracy theorist for stating exactly what the Taoiseach said

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/housing-is-number-one-crisis-facing-young-people-taoiseach-1.4559764?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Props has been called a conspiracy theorist a number of times for stating things that have later been reported in the paper.

He’s uncharacteristically quiet at the minute, has he been banned again?

MacronvFrugals · 09-05-2021 11:45PM

schmittel wrote: »

Props has been called a conspiracy theorist a number of times for stating things that have later been reported in the paper.

He’s uncharacteristically quiet at the minute, has he been banned again?

I would certainly hope not a fair amount has turned out to true, for the things that weren’t they’re mostly reasonable arguments

Beigepaint · 10-05-2021 01:18AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What the problem ?
If you been outbid at 500K property in Dublin
Buy 230K property in County Louth and 2 Scoda Kodiaq saving another 190K for new furniture
You will spend same time on motorway as in trafic to your property in Dublin.
Ach,sorry,property in County Louth does not sound great in Dublin.Then we heading another problem there.
I have serious problem at the moment.I want buy Ferrari for 2000 euros and I cant find it.Something wrong with supply ! Government has seriously work on it !

This possible solution to the housing crisis that we should all just commute from places we don’t want to live in - and have no connection to - is so bizarre and stupid when you consider the vast areas of unused and underused land inside the M50.

The carbon taxes and fines are really gonna start slamming us in the next few years and your advice to me is to lay off the avacado toast, stop buying cappuccinos and move to Portlaoise.

How selfish of me to want to live in a city where using public transport is pleasant and sensible.

A modern country is one where people don’t need podcasts to cope with their two + hours of driving every day.

mcsean2163 · 10-05-2021 01:54AM

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidhall75/status/1391337747223392261

Backlash against conor Skehan.

Hubertj · 10-05-2021 07:30AM

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/michael-brennan-a-plague-on-both-your-houses-mullen-park-is-a-warning-to-ff-and-fg-55d3ec5d

This is a good article by Michael Brennan. Does anyone know what the EU rules on capital spending actually are? Article refers to “ The government is still trying to avoid breaching EU financial rules, which limit how much the state can spend on capital projects such as housing.”

If this is the case would it mean other capital projects have to be dropped? What would they be?

Amadan Dubh · 10-05-2021 07:42AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/una-mullally-why-did-it-take-a-kildare-housing-estate-to-wake-up-government-1.4559746?mode=amp

Una Mullally: Why did it take a Kildare housing estate to wake up Government?

It wasn’t just the investment funds buying up apartments in Dublin. Or the luxury purpose-built student accommodation littering our landscape. Or the co-living developments. Or the homelessness. Or the upwardly spiralling rents. Or Airbnb sucking housing stock out of cities. Or urban dereliction. Or land-hoarding. Or the lack of public housing being built. Or the mini-bubbles that keep inflating in certain areas where house prices are rising.

Or developers trying to sell entire blocks of apartments to tech companies. Or those forced to live in their parents’ homes well into adulthood because they can’t afford rent. Or the corporate gentrification. Or aparthotels being built where housing should be. Or the new wave of emigration instigated by a lack of rent affordability.

Investment funds have been buying up houses and apartments in bulk for years. It’s policy. Reits – real estate investment trusts – are a scourge. Ordinary people can’t compete. That a housing estate in Maynooth became a target for global capital, is, according to Taoiseach Micheál Martin, “unacceptable”. What about everything else? Why is this a tipping point?

Global capital both supersedes and usurps the power of a state, unless that state is wise to such forces and embeds protections and shields. But instead of re-enforcing our resilience around housing, Fine Gael weakened it. Our housing policy was handed over to “the market” and now that market is eating us. Global capital is doing what it does.

It’s hard to know which is worse, but it is what has happened. Fine Gael’s ideology, in particular, seems so embedded that they cannot even recognise it themselves, and instead whine about the “ideology” of others who are simply offering solutions rooted in fairness.

And a lot of this comes down to fairness, which is a core value in Irish society. The housing game is rigged, and people are sick of politicians’ “don’t ask me, I just work here” stance on housing. All that’s left to do is watch the political consequences play out, which is simply a matter of time.

I find myself agreeing with Úna Mullally which is disturbing me, but I can finally see the pressure on the housing crisis (we need to remember that the market is in crisis - an intense time of difficulty - with the last 9 years being evidence of a destructive market and not a recovered one) come from wider circles and also see how strong the pressure is.

The last paragraph from Úna is correct, we will see populism rise in Ireland and the FFG parties get obliterated if this issue is not resolved; the issue being resolved by supply increasing dramatically but also rents dropping substantially (my own view would be at least 40% off their current averages) and house prices correcting (less than 40% as I don't think a lot of the market needs much more than 15/20% off its value) - until it is accepted what the outcome needs to be (price drops), things won't change.

combat14 · 10-05-2021 08:22AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/una-mullally-why-did-it-take-a-kildare-housing-estate-to-wake-up-government-1.4559746?mode=amp

I find myself agreeing with Úna Mullally which is disturbing me, but I can finally see the pressure on the housing crisis (we need to remember that the market is in crisis - an intense time of difficulty - with the last 9 years being evidence of a destructive market and not a recovered one) come from wider circles and also see how strong the pressure is.

The last paragraph from Úna is correct, we will see populism rise in Ireland and the FFG parties get obliterated if this issue is not resolved; the issue being resolved by supply increasing dramatically but also rents dropping substantially (my own view would be at least 40% off their current averages) and house prices correcting (less than 40% as I don't think a lot of the market needs much more than 15/20% off its value) - until it is accepted what the outcome needs to be (price drops), things won't change.

its coming only a matter of time and FG (and FF who will probably suffer even more) have done it to themselves

people have enough - they want fair houses again not this vulture fund nonsense that leo varadker in particular espouses

Villa05 · 10-05-2021 08:35AM

Amadan Dubh wrote:

I find myself agreeing with Ãšna Mullally which is disturbing me, but I can finally see the pressure on the housing crisis (we need to remember that the market is in crisis - an intense time of difficulty - with the last 9 years being evidence of a destructive market and not a recovered one) come from wider circles and also see how strong the pressure is.

The answer to una's question is that it's the sons and daughters of ffg target voters that are affected

RichardAnd · 10-05-2021 09:02AM

combat14 wrote: »

its coming only a matter of time and FG (and FF who will probably suffer even more) have done it to themselves

people have enough - they want fair houses again not this vulture fund nonsense that leo varadker in particular espouses

Whilst I'd happily see the back of the current political parties, I do wonder what would really change. Let's say, for example, there is an election this year and the existing paradigm is utterly wiped out. Will things change? Consider that behind those in the Dail, there is an army of civil servants who are full of ideologies, many NGOs, interest groups and "think tanks" who will push an agenda and let's not forget banks. Given that these cohorts never change, would a radical change in the Dail really do much?

This is a genuine question that I often ask myself. I don't have an answer.

Amadan Dubh · 10-05-2021 09:10AM

Villa05 wrote: »

The answer to una's question is that it's the sons and daughters of ffg target voters that are affected

A lot of older home owners (like my parents) lamented not selling during the Celtic Tiger as they always planned on selling. Then when prices corrected after '08 they held off. In recent years they were just watching the recovery and their house price go up again and I never understood what they were waiting for. Maybe prices to get back up close to Celtic Tiger levels? There was always a reason not to sell for them, maybe they didn't want to miss out on getting a higher price a few months later? Whatever it was I just thought it was mad that they would not cash in a mortgage free house for the apparent price it was worth and now I (and they) feel that they have missed the boat to cash in their house for what they could've gotten even 2 years ago (south Dublin). For the direction of travel from here onwards will be to implement policies that try to correct the housing market which, as we know, must have an outcome to drop prices and rents in order for the electorate to be content. It feels like there is now a generational shift in progress which is going to start to look to claw back that wealth from those older people, like my parents and others, in order to ensure a more equitable distribution across housing market stakeholders.

Hubertj · 10-05-2021 09:12AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

Whilst I'd happily see the back of the current political parties, I do wonder what would really change. Let's say, for example, there is an election this year and the existing paradigm is utterly wiped out. Will things change? Consider that behind those in the Dail, there is an army of civil servants who are full of ideologies, many NGOs, interest groups and "think tanks" who will push an agenda and let's not forget banks. Given that these cohorts never change, would a radical change in the Dail really do much?

This is a genuine question that I often ask myself. I don't have an answer.

Yep. You still have the same public servants implementing whatever policy in introduced. With a lack of competency and no accountability.....
Although, I’m sure SF will take direction from McFeely when it comes to changes to building regs ðŸ˜႒

Sweet.Science · 10-05-2021 09:27AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

A lot of older home owners (like my parents) lamented not selling during the Celtic Tiger as they always planned on selling. Then when prices corrected after '08 they held off. In recent years they were just watching the recovery and their house price go up again and I never understood what they were waiting for. Maybe prices to get back up close to Celtic Tiger levels? There was always a reason not to sell for them, maybe they didn't want to miss out on getting a higher price a few months later? Whatever it was I just thought it was mad that they would not cash in a mortgage free house for the apparent price it was worth and now I (and they) feel that they have missed the boat to cash in their house for what they could've gotten even 2 years ago (south Dublin). For the direction of travel from here onwards will be to implement policies that try to correct the housing market which, as we know, must have an outcome to drop prices and rents in order for the electorate to be content. It feels like there is now a generational shift in progress which is going to start to look to claw back that wealth from those older people, like my parents and others, in order to ensure a more equitable distribution across housing market stakeholders.

Do they have more than one property ? Makes little sense holding out for higher prices if you have to buy another yourself

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 09:31AM

hmmm wrote: »

I can't get my head around the social housing bodies competing on the market with private purchasers.

Private purchasers are paying tax, which is then being lavished on these bodies who are competing for property with the people paying the tax. It seems designed to funnel taxpayers funds from workers into the hands of property owners.

And if this is happening under a FG/FF government, what happens in a hard-left government?

I think you mean the houses are being funneled to the unemployed, REITS and Vulture funds. Property owners other than these pay through the nose for their property

Bass Reeves · 10-05-2021 09:33AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

Whilst I'd happily see the back of the current political parties, I do wonder what would really change. Let's say, for example, there is an election this year and the existing paradigm is utterly wiped out. Will things change? Consider that behind those in the Dail, there is an army of civil servants who are full of ideologies, many NGOs, interest groups and "think tanks" who will push an agenda and let's not forget banks. Given that these cohorts never change, would a radical change in the Dail really do much?

This is a genuine question that I often ask myself. I don't have an answer.

I think that those that think that a change in government is a magic bullet are in for a shock. I do not really blame public servants either. We have a simple problem we need 50k houses yesterday and 20-25k year for the next few years.

I think that the construction industry is limited to 20-25k houses per year labour wise. The industry has shrunk over the last 10 years. The financial's needed are more complex in bigger development's which has parked mid sized operations at present.

During the last building boom we were able to attract relatively cheap eastern European labour and we had a lot of skilled labour return from abroad in the early noughties. There is no valve this time that will satisfy this.

I coached GAA for the last 15 years. Of the young lads I knew from it. ( Somewhere in the 150+) I think about a half dozen did trades, however an older lad that was trained in a trade went away and did nursing. There are a good few lads trained as QS"s, Civils or in Construction site management. But none of them can wire or plumb houses or lay blocks.

If SF get into power and redirect labour to building social housing will the new house construction numbers shrink. Will labour transfer into extensions to existing houses. There is no magic bullet

fliball123 · 10-05-2021 09:40AM

Villa05 wrote: »

If we had common sense policies

We would build housing on state land and restore the supply demand imbalance. Current policy ensures taxpayers pay more tax, rent, mortgages. Employers are under pressure to pay more wages thus reducing competitiveness

We had the same issue with medicine not so long ago with the state paying maximum price for branded medicine with cheaper substitutes discouraged to facilitate vested interests

After the last crash I do remember large queue's forming for McDonald s jobs
When we are close to full employment it might be popular soundbite but I don't think it is those at the bottom that responsible for the countries ills

The problem here is how much will that cost to build these houses your talking about. The public sector don't do cheap and really don't do cheap when it comes to things like procurement and building look at the children's hospital for an example and who pays for it we are already borrowing at ridiculous rates. We will need more money for the HSE next year, also the Public service are due 2 more payrises between now and the end of next year. The latter also has the knock on effect that existing PS retirees get more as well. If corporation tax gets cut and if Ireland lose more jobs and dont bounce back in the next 18/24 months, we could be borrowing anywhere up to 30 Billion in the near future to cover our expenses. The government should just stop interfering in the market stop FTB grants and all other monies supplied to welfare and let the market find its proper price point. Anything other than that is further muddying the water. The tax payer is all ready bleeding cash for a system that just does not work so why should anyone be confident that they could start building houses. REITS and Vultures need to be taxed like an employee. 51% back to the state after they earn the AIW.

I have been banging on for years on here about how the (the LEFT) poor are handed things working people dont get and cant afford and (the RIGHT) the rich don't like paying with their own money and its left to the squeezed middle to pay for it all. Our current housing mess is now a glaring reflection of how both sides manage to hoist expense onto the middle class. Watch out for tax increases and property tax increases for those in the middle ye know those getting up in the morning (mr Varadkar) for the handouts to the poor and the REITS/Vulture funds when it comes to housing

AlmightyCushion · 10-05-2021 10:03AM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/michael-brennan-a-plague-on-both-your-houses-mullen-park-is-a-warning-to-ff-and-fg-55d3ec5d

This is a good article by Michael Brennan. Does anyone know what the EU rules on capital spending actually are? Article refers to “ The government is still trying to avoid breaching EU financial rules, which limit how much the state can spend on capital projects such as housing.”

If this is the case would it mean other capital projects have to be dropped? What would they be?

It's the fiscal compact. It was brought in after the last crash. Short answer, a country needs to keep their deficit below 3% of GDP whilst keeping their debt to GDP ratio at 60%. If your debt to GDP ratio is over 60% you need to be reducing it. It has been temporarily suspended for Covid related spending.

timmyntc · 10-05-2021 10:04AM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's the fiscal compact. It was brought in after the last crash. Short answer, a country needs to keep their deficit below 3% of GDP whilst keeping their debt to GDP ratio at 60%. If your debt to GDP ratio is over 60% you need to be reducing it. It has been temporarily suspended for Covid related spending.

Which would explain why the state are content to agree 25 year leases for housing because the costs accrue on a yearly basis rather than a big upfront lump sum for building their own housing.

SmokyMo · 10-05-2021 10:05AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think that those that think that a change in government is a magic bullet are in for a shock. I do not really blame public servants either. We have a simple problem we need 50k houses yesterday and 20-25k year for the next few years.

I think that the construction industry is limited to 20-25k houses per year labour wise. The industry has shrunk over the last 10 years. The financial's needed are more complex in bigger development's which has parked mid sized operations at present.

During the last building boom we were able to attract relatively cheap eastern European labour and we had a lot of skilled labour return from abroad in the early noughties. There is no valve this time that will satisfy this.

I coached GAA for the last 15 years. Of the young lads I knew from it. ( Somewhere in the 150+) I think about a half dozen did trades, however an older lad that was trained in a trade went away and did nursing. There are a good few lads trained as QS"s, Civils or in Construction site management. But none of them can wire or plumb houses or lay blocks.

If SF get into power and redirect labour to building social housing will the new house construction numbers shrink. Will labour transfer into extensions to existing houses. There is no magic bullet

Valid points.
I think a starting point is whatever new incoming stock comes is offered to retail first before institutions. You cant have a situation where 95% of apartments get sold off to funds to before they even come on the market.

AlmightyCushion · 10-05-2021 10:11AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Which would explain why the state are content to agree 25 year leases for housing because the costs accrue on a yearly basis rather than a big upfront lump sum for building their own housing.

Pretty much. It would likely be cheaper in the long run for the state to buy the properties straight out (like the REITs are doing) but our ability to borrow is limited by the fiscal compact so they rent it instead. It's actually kind of similar to what is happening to people. It would be cheaper in the long run for people to buy a house/apartment with a mortgage but they can't borrow enough so they end up renting.

timmyntc · 10-05-2021 10:21AM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Pretty much. It would likely be cheaper in the long run for the state to buy the properties straight out (like the REITs are doing) but our ability to borrow is limited by the fiscal compact so they rent it instead. It's actually kind of similar to what is happening to people. It would be cheaper in the long run for people to buy a house/apartment with a mortgage but they can't borrow enough so they end up renting.

Surely the state can do some creative accounting to get around this too?
Get the fella who comes up with all the MNC tax loopholes to wrangle one for us too

PropQueries · 10-05-2021 10:25AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think that those that think that a change in government is a magic bullet are in for a shock. I do not really blame public servants either. We have a simple problem we need 50k houses yesterday and 20-25k year for the next few years.

I think that the construction industry is limited to 20-25k houses per year labour wise. The industry has shrunk over the last 10 years. The financial's needed are more complex in bigger development's which has parked mid sized operations at present.

During the last building boom we were able to attract relatively cheap eastern European labour and we had a lot of skilled labour return from abroad in the early noughties. There is no valve this time that will satisfy this.

I coached GAA for the last 15 years. Of the young lads I knew from it. ( Somewhere in the 150+) I think about a half dozen did trades, however an older lad that was trained in a trade went away and did nursing. There are a good few lads trained as QS"s, Civils or in Construction site management. But none of them can wire or plumb houses or lay blocks.

If SF get into power and redirect labour to building social housing will the new house construction numbers shrink. Will labour transfer into extensions to existing houses. There is no magic bullet

I think there is a magic bullet. Copenhagen has c. 600k people living in a similar footprint and in similar low rise buildings as Dublin City has c. 100k people living between the canals.

That’s the solution right there and it’s enough existing, already built space to supply all housing needs in Ireland for the next 20 to 30 years without building one new house/apartment (assuming we do need the projected figures amount).

It’s not a supply problem. It’s a mismanagement of existing supply problem.

They’re going to re-enter the market at some stage (sooner rather than later IMO) given how many of these properties are owned (I assume) by the funds so we might as well get/force them into supply now IMO

Good for people. Good for society. Good for the taxpayer. Good for the environment.

Mad_maxx · 10-05-2021 10:32AM

people should be wary of those who promise solutions , Professor Rory Hearne was being cheered as a saviour of all the problems of the housing market by the twittersphere last week

this same fella is an open borders advocate and no matter what he says can be done in terms of granting the state more powers , it wont meet the demand from overseas , you could build a hundred thousand houses per year and it would not fix things if an endless stream of people arrive from overseas

the whole thing is riddled with ideologues

mcsean2163 · 10-05-2021 10:33AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I think there is a magic bullet. Copenhagen has c. 600k people living in a similar footprint and in similar low rise buildings as Dublin City has c. 100k people living between the canals.

That’s the solution right there and it’s enough existing, already built space to supply all housing needs in Ireland for the next 20 to 30 years without building one new house/apartment (assuming we do need the projected figures amount).

It’s not a supply problem. It’s a mismanagement of existing supply problem.

They’re going to re-enter the market at some stage (sooner rather than later IMO) given how many of these properties are owned (I assume) by the funds so we might as well get/force them into supply now IMO

Good for people. Good for society. Good for the taxpayer. Good for the environment.

You're back!

AlmightyCushion · 10-05-2021 10:34AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Surely the state can do some creative accounting to get around this too?
Get the fella who comes up with all the MNC tax loopholes to wrangle one for us too

They tried that with all those housing trusts building social housing whilst trying to keep their borrowings off the state's books. It didn't work. That was because all the income for these housing trusts would be coming from the state. if they created a new entity that was renting or selling to non social tenants and thus not using state money, it is possible that would work. They might think that the optics of that are bad. State using money to build houses for people with good jobs when the social housing list is so long. Personally I think that the potential negative press from it this is over stated.

Amadan Dubh · 10-05-2021 10:45AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do they have more than one property ? Makes little sense holding out for higher prices if you have to buy another yourself

Trying to tell baby boomers something to do with their finances as a younger person is tough at the best of times. Sense was lacking in their position!

Cal4567 · 10-05-2021 10:51AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

Whilst I'd happily see the back of the current political parties, I do wonder what would really change. Let's say, for example, there is an election this year and the existing paradigm is utterly wiped out. Will things change? Consider that behind those in the Dail, there is an army of civil servants who are full of ideologies, many NGOs, interest groups and "think tanks" who will push an agenda and let's not forget banks. Given that these cohorts never change, would a radical change in the Dail really do much?

This is a genuine question that I often ask myself. I don't have an answer.

I think this is a very good question. I don't think it will unless SF drive a sea change through the corridors of power, if they have the mandate by the electorate to do so. Just edging FG and having to be propped up by the Greens and the Soc Dems in a broad coalition, to many wouldn't be a mandate. I sense Mary Lou, Pearse Doherty & Eoin O'Broin etc will have a job on their hands. It's by no means impossible, just not easy.

Villa05 · 10-05-2021 10:57AM

fliball123 wrote:

The problem here is how much will that cost to build these houses your talking about. The public sector don't do cheap and really don't do cheap when it comes to things like procurement and building.

We had a spreadsheet of the various councils and many of them were delivering housing at significantly below market prices albeit in low volumes

We have a dedicated division of Sisk for delivering affordable housing.

We have o cualann housing and others that appear to be extremely successful in delivering affordable housing.

Commercial sector appears to be winding down freeing up labour

Finance available at 0% to the state with the EU anxious for states to assist in kick starting economies

The state is the largest landowner in the country and I'm sure their are costs in leaving it idle

Pool the competent sectors of the state and let them focus on the areas most affected by supply issues and let them take advantage of the many circumstances that are beneficial to the state in solving the issue. Focus on housing workers close to where they work. The additional supply will trickle up and down addressing issues there also

It really is not that complicated

Mad_maxx · 10-05-2021 11:03AM

the Limerick market is up at least 7% since November of last year , im sale agreed on the purchase of a three bed terraced house for 161 k , lesser three beds in lesser areas are currently at bids of 170 K

the market is nuts , i reckon prices will go up 20% in some parts of the country in 2021

Hubertj · 10-05-2021 11:07AM

‘Compact’ growth key to future residential development
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/compact-growth-key-to-future-residential-development-1.4558249

This is a very good article, which proposes viable solutions and isn’t just a rant about what is wrong. I can definitely agree with the points around planning regs etc for Georgian buildings having lived in a few over the years. So much potential north and south city centre

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1