2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths · 24-04-2021 11:36PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m struggling to understand the nonsense from the last few pages as I don’t see all posts. What is wrong with limiting the number of properties that can be built in an area to x? If estimates are at 30k or 40k nationally and spread in different regions why is it so outrageous that only a certain number should be built in DLR? Are people doubting the numbers? Or is it because if more people don’t want to live there that means there is no shortage of housing?
Are people suggesting there aren’t infrastructure challenges with many parts of DLR? If so, they are misinformed, not telling the truth or not very bright.

Nothing wrong at all with limiting number of properties that can be built in an area. Eminently sensible I would have thought.

Was there some specific nonsense I posted you are struggling to understand?

PropQueries · 24-04-2021 11:37PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m struggling to understand the nonsense from the last few pages as I don’t see all posts. What is wrong with limiting the number of properties that can be built in an area to x? If estimates are at 30k or 40k nationally and spread in different regions why is it so outrageous that only a certain number should be built in DLR? Are people doubting the numbers? Or is it because if more people don’t want to live there that means there is no shortage of housing?
Are people suggesting there aren’t infrastructure challenges with many parts of DLR? If so, they are misinformed, not telling the truth or not very bright.

It makes way more sense and it’s a whole lot easier and a whole lot cheaper to put infrastructure in and build in an area like DLR, where people want to live due to its proximity to the city than spending billions on roads, rail etc. so people can commute from e.g. Co. Kildare.

Throw in “climate change”, where the Government has collected c. €4 billion in carbon taxes over the past few years to discourage us from living in such places and building every single home needed over the next 40 years in places like DLR makes perfect sense to me.

Hubertj · 24-04-2021 11:43PM

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing wrong at all with limiting number of properties that can be built in an area. Eminently sensible I would have thought.

Was there some specific nonsense I posted you are struggling to understand?

No I wasn’t referring to anything you posted at all. I was Struggling to comprehend what the “debate” was about in general. I was asking you, not directing the comment at you.

PropQueries · 25-04-2021 12:59AM

Hubertj wrote: »

No I wasn’t referring to anything you posted at all. I was Struggling to comprehend what the “debate” was about in general. I was asking you, not directing the comment at you.

The debate was in relation to whether the department of housing told DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year (an area covering c. 126sq.km right next to Dublin City centre) due to a lack of infrastructure or if it was because there was no demand for more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR for the next 6 years.

It’s up to the reader to decide if the article is suggesting it’s due to a lack of “infrastructure” (not mentioned once in the article) or if the department of housing is telling DLR county council that there won’t be any demand above c. 2,500 new homes per year over the next 6 years.

Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/d%C3%BAn-laoghaire-rathdown-told-to-scale-back-housing-plans-1.4546039

awec · 25-04-2021 09:08AM

PropQueries wrote: »

So, what’s the consensus here?

Is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes a year on their c. 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre because of a lack of infrastructure or is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year because there’s no demand for more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR?

It has literally been spelled out for you in black and white on this thread by posters a lot more knowledgeable than you. Indeed it appears until yesterday you had no idea what a regional development plan was.

What more do you need? There is no debate to be had here, there are the facts and then there is the spin. You asked a question, you got your answer, it wasn’t the answer you wanted and so round and round and round we go again and again while you flog this dead horse.

Your insistence on spinning everything to suit your views is incredibly tiresome.

awec · 25-04-2021 09:18AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a 38 minute drive on the R118 from Dunlaoghaire to the city centre (13km) this evening. Thats without traffic. Check AA roadwatch.

It may be 124sq. km (excluding the harbour) however, the fact of the matter is- much of the transport infrastructure is soaked already (I don't know if you've spent any time on the M50 in the general area in the morning or evening- certain junctions are just an appalling mess- Carrickmines is notorious, but its by no means the only one. Add into this mess a lot Green Party TD who is a cycling enthusiast- and the writing is clearly and unambiguously on the wall.

Yes- it may have DART and Luas infrastructure- however, the DART hasn't been properly upgraded in over 20 years- and the Luas is capacity constrained.

DLRCoCo are supposed to take the following into account when deciding their development plans:
Asset Test - Are there enough communityresources, such as schools etc. with spare capacity?

Carrying Capacity Test - Is the environmental setting capable of absorbing development in terms of drainage and other critical infrastructure etc?

Transport Test - Is there potential for reinforcing usage of public transport, walking and cycling?

Economic Development Test - Is there potential to ensure integration between the location of housing and employment?

Character Test - Will the proposal reinforce a sense of place and character?

Community Test - Will the proposal reinforce the integrity and vitality of the local community and services that can be provided?

Integration Test - Will the proposal aid an integrated approach to catering for the housing needs of all sections of society?

These are taken directly from the National Spatial Strategy Plan.
They appear to have wholly ignored these requirements- for no good reason whatsoever.

Anyone familiar with the area who commutes via DART or LUAS will know exactly about the capacity problems. They are both full.

The LUAS especially is going to have huge problems if the metro upgrade is blocked permanently.

Villa05 · 25-04-2021 12:02PM

This mornings On the record from newstalk well worth a listen back for those interested in the rental market in Dublin
It relates to a piece by the Sunday business post on why its beneficial for reits to leave apartments empty rather than letting them out and how they also manipulate true market rents through various incentives

Its interesting that there allowed do this as long term leases of social housing are linked to market rents. It would be shame if tax incentives were given to these reits and in return they would cheating that same tax payer through higher rents by manipulating market rents

Not news to most on here but positive to see mainstream media picking up on it.

There also a piece on approved housing bodies and concerns regarding there regulation

And they also delve into topic of the last few pages in relation to DLR

Hubertj · 25-04-2021 12:36PM

Villa05 wrote: »

This mornings On the record from newstalk well worth a listen back for those interested in the rental market in Dublin
It relates to a piece by the Sunday business post on why its beneficial for reits to leave apartments empty rather than letting them out and how they also manipulate true market rents through various incentives

Its interesting that there allowed do this as long term leases of social housing are linked to market rents. It would be shame if tax incentives were given to these reits and in return they would cheating that same tax payer through higher rents by manipulating market rents

Not news to most on here but positive to see mainstream media picking up on it.

There also a piece on approved housing bodies and concerns regarding there regulation

And they also delve into topic of the last few pages in relation to DLR

I also wonder which legislation is leading landlords to take such action. It’s an interesting and informative article but a subject which has been discussed in thei forum since last summer. Hardly news but good to get specific details on it from a credible source.

I see sheep · 25-04-2021 04:21PM

Not sure this in the right place but why are there so few houses/apartments for rent in Ireland?
Considering moving back from UK next year but it looks to me like there's about 1/4 the number of places available compared to around where I live now.
Has it always been like this? It's been nearly 15 years since I rented in Ireland. I'm not looking in Dublin.
Thanks

Bass Reeves · 25-04-2021 05:16PM

I see sheep wrote: »

Not sure this in the right place but why are there so few houses/apartments for rent in Ireland?
Considering moving back from UK next year but it looks to me like there's about 1/4 the number of places available compared to around where I live now.
Has it always been like this? It's been nearly 15 years since I rented in Ireland. I'm not looking in Dublin.
Thanks

There has been nothing build in towns and villages for the last 10-12 years. The excess that was there has all been bought up. This is really noticeable in holidaying area's along the west of Ireland. 4-6 years ago property could have been purchased quite cheapy at 50% of build cost not to mind adding site cost. These houses were often bought as holiday homes. Most can afford them without having to resort to renting them.

In larger towns the apartments have been bought up by investors or by foreign nations who were renting at the end of the last recession. There is absolutely no houses or apratments to rent in these areas any longer it a lot worse than in bigger cities.

My properties were rented by word of mouth last year

hmmm · 25-04-2021 06:00PM

I see sheep wrote: »

Not sure this in the right place but why are there so few houses/apartments for rent in Ireland?
Considering moving back from UK next year but it looks to me like there's about 1/4 the number of places available compared to around where I live now.
Has it always been like this? It's been nearly 15 years since I rented in Ireland. I'm not looking in Dublin.
Thanks

Small landlords were driven out of the market in recent years by rent caps & it being made very difficult to evict tenants. Not entirely a bad thing I think to remove amateur landlords, some were good but most were pretty bad at it.

The plan I think was to get more institutions in who would rent hundreds of apartments at a time. Unfortunately there has been a lot of political resistance to building rental apartments.

Ironically the same political parties who made life impossible for small landlords are also opposing institutional landlords, and simultaneously give out out about a housing crisis.

jill_valentine · 25-04-2021 08:07PM

hmmm wrote: »

Small landlords were driven out of the market in recent years by rent caps & it being made very difficult to evict tenants. Not entirely a bad thing I think to remove amateur landlords, some were good but most were pretty bad at it.

I have to agree, in my experiences as a renter, big agency > small landlord every time.

Not altogether convinced about how many of the smaller ones were actually "driven out", or just found a less visible way to remain though.

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 08:31AM

Villa05 wrote: »

This mornings On the record from newstalk well worth a listen back for those interested in the rental market in Dublin
It relates to a piece by the Sunday business post on why its beneficial for reits to leave apartments empty rather than letting them out and how they also manipulate true market rents through various incentives

Its interesting that there allowed do this as long term leases of social housing are linked to market rents. It would be shame if tax incentives were given to these reits and in return they would cheating that same tax payer through higher rents by manipulating market rents

Not news to most on here but positive to see mainstream media picking up on it.

There also a piece on approved housing bodies and concerns regarding there regulation

And they also delve into topic of the last few pages in relation to DLR

Listened to that show this morning. For others, the Minister for Housing is interviewed at 12 noon on the playback.

Just like the Irish Time's article on Saturday, the Minister didn't mention anything about infrastructure being the reason for not allowing DLR county council to build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year going forward.

However, he did appear to suggest that the decision to stop DLR building more than c. 2,500 new homes per year was due to him wanting more people to live outside that c. 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre.

His policy raises questions in my eyes. On one side, Why is the Government already charging and planning to charge us billions of euro in additional carbon taxes over the next few years to discourage us from living outside urban areas such as DLR, and on the other side, the Government is stopping the councils in an area like DLR from building more than c. 2,500 per annum?

His policy appears to be encouraging further urban sprawl which is in direct contradiction to the government's apparent current policy of discouraging such behaviour by introducing higher and higher carban taxes. And, what do the Greens (who have a seat at the Government table) think of his new policy?

Even if the plan is to use remote working to encourage more people to live outside Dublin, no matter where they live outside Dublin, such a policy still forces people to use a car, as even in towns, most people still need a car to do their weekly shop at the local out of town shopping centre, as unlike in Dublin where many are within walking distance or can use public transport to get to their local Tesco etc., most people outside Dublin do need to drive to do their weekly shopping.

Mic 1972 · 26-04-2021 08:57AM

I'm pretty sure people in Dun Laughaire also need to drive to the local shops. Sometimes estates outside of Dublin are handier for access to big shops like Tescos, Aldi, etcc

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 09:24AM

And, if anyone thinks that maybe the Government will invest in public transport etc. in these towns and villages outside Dublin, CIE have a pension deficit of c. €1 billion so has no available funding to make such investments. Has the c. €4 billion in additional carbon taxes collected over the past few years been invested in such infrastructure?

And, given the estimated annual future shortfall in corporation taxes (estimated at between €2 billion per year according to Pascal and up to €6 billion per year according John FitzGerald), the Government won't have any funds to make such future investments either way.

So, what are the Green's policies, as the term "encouraging urban sprawl" didn't appear to be in their election manifesto?

MacronvFrugals · 26-04-2021 09:43AM

Will the outrageous lease deals keep on coming?

Government departments face return of Troika-style spending controls

Troika-style budget controls have been slapped on the biggest government departments such as health, education and social protection as part of a need to cut an estimated €12bn from State spending.

Workers are to begin transitioning back from the €350 pandemic unemployment payment (PUP) to the normal jobseeker’s rate of €203 a week from June, as Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath looks to wean the country off emergency Covid-19 spending.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40274552.html

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 09:57AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will the outrageous lease deals keep on coming?

Government departments face return of Troika-style spending controls

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40274552.html

I like the way they continue to use the term "generous" PUP payments and the word "wean off" as if many of these employees have the option to actually return to work at the moment.

The PUP payments were mostly funded from the surplus in the PRSI fund and have contributed very little to the increase in the Government's "Covid related" borrowings since last year.

RichardAnd · 26-04-2021 10:21AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will the outrageous lease deals keep on coming?

Government departments face return of Troika-style spending controls

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40274552.html

Interesting. I guess the money printers are running out of ink.

Hubertj · 26-04-2021 10:46AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will the outrageous lease deals keep on coming?

Government departments face return of Troika-style spending controls

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40274552.html

This is to be welcomed as long as it is enforced and departments are held accountable. Public sector spending across the board, not just on housing, is off the charts. There are billions to save by delivering efficiencies, not cutting services. Unfortunately our overpaid and under worked public servants do not possess the competence or motivation to deliver. Perhaps this can only be achieved if the actual Troike rolls back into town so the government, whoever they are, has the work done for them.

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 11:07AM

Hubertj wrote: »

This is to be welcomed as long as it is enforced and departments are held accountable. Public sector spending across the board, not just on housing, is off the charts. There are billions to save by delivering efficiencies, not cutting services. Unfortunately our overpaid and under worked public servants do not possess the competence or motivation to deliver. Perhaps this can only be achieved if the actual Troike rolls back into town so the government, whoever they are, has the work done for them.

We may be inviting the actual Troika back in sooner than many people realise. According to the Fiscal Advisory Council:

"The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has accused the Government of failing to manage the public finances in a prudent manner. In its latest report,the council warns that Budget 2021 includes “substantial and permanent increases” in spending unrelated to the Covid-19 pandemic amounting to €5.4 billion without long-term funding."

Throw in John FitzGerald's potential estimate of a loss of c. €6 billion per annum due to Biden's tax reforms and we're talking of making permanent cutbacks of c. €12 billion per annum to whatever the Government was spending per annum pre-covid.

While it's not reported in the Irish media, some funds are already looking at shorting the debt of the EU's periphery countries.

There was a good article on it last week on Bloomberg titled "Europe’s Most Indebted Countries Aren’t Ready for Market Reality". While Michael McGrath is looking at "weaning" PUP payments off PUP recipients, the ECB and EU are already looking at weaning countries like Ireland off their supports.

Let's see if Michael McGrath is in favour of such "weaning off", once the shoe is on the other foot

I'm sure the Minister for Housing must also be included when they're looking at such a level of potential cutbacks to annual budgets going forward. I would be thinking most of his housing plans are not practicable or affordable either now or going forward IMO

Link to article on Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-24/europe-s-most-indebted-countries-aren-t-ready-for-market-reality

JimmyVik · 26-04-2021 11:41AM

9% stamp duty on house purchases coming down the line

And the excuse will be, to cool the property market.

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 12:01PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

9% stamp duty on house purchases coming down the line
And the excuse will be, to cool the property market.

Well, whatever new taxes are coming, many of them are most likely going to fall on property related assets as there's not much left to tax. Whether that's vacant property taxes, local property taxes, changes to the "fair deal" scheme, inheritance taxes, stamp duty etc. etc., we should know fairly shortly IMO

With such a potential amount of spending to cut back on, it's basically a decision on who will take the hit. There are also three main groups in the working age group in our society i.e. pre-2011 public sector workers, post-2011 public sector workers and private sector workers. Will be interesting on when and on how they decide to hit each of these groups and in what ways IMO

Either way, I would believe anything and everything property related is open and fair game to significant increases in all kinds of taxes, charges etc. in the next few months IMO

cnocbui · 26-04-2021 12:05PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

9% stamp duty on house purchases coming down the line
And the excuse will be, to cool the property market.

That would be like the wealth taxes in France - reducing the total tax collected.

Can you imagine the fall in income for solicitors, REAs, engineers and those BER parasites? Not to mention the detrimental effect on labour mobility.

fliball123 · 26-04-2021 12:10PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

9% stamp duty on house purchases coming down the line
And the excuse will be, to cool the property market.

So you reckon that the "we cant afford houses" from the younger generation will be ignored and another 10% will come into play? Cant see it happening

timmyntc · 26-04-2021 12:15PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

9% stamp duty on house purchases coming down the line
And the excuse will be, to cool the property market.

Source?

cnocbui wrote: »

That would be like the wealth taxes in France - reducing the total tax collected.

Can you imagine the fall in income for solicitors, REAs, engineers and those BER parasites? Not to mention the detrimental effect on labour mobility.

If it did go ahead, would it not significantly stop people from trading up & down?
Losing an eyewatering 9% of price to tax would definitely make you rethink about downsizing. A lot less mobility & sales overall

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 12:30PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Source?

If it did go ahead, would it not significantly stop people from trading up & down?
Losing an eyewatering 9% of price to tax would definitely make you rethink about downsizing. A lot less mobility & sales overall

I suppose it depends on where you believe the Government can make up the potential permanent c. €12 billion annual shortfall in revenues going forward.

If they tax the working poor any more, there's no real savings as c. 90,000 of these households will already be in receipt e.g. HAP or RAS this year according to the Minister for Housing i.e. many of them literally have nothing left to give and any further reductions in their net pay will need to be subsidized by the Government, basically because of the mess they made with the property market over the past 5 years.

It does appear that property is the only thing really left to tax and tax heavily IMO.

Villa05 · 26-04-2021 12:32PM

fliball123 wrote:

So you reckon that the "we cant afford houses" from the younger generation will be ignored and another 10% will come into play? Cant see it happening

Irrelevant as you continually state price is dictated by what people can afford rather than cost of building

timmyntc · 26-04-2021 12:36PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I suppose it depends on where you believe the Government can make up the potential permanent c. €12 billion annual shortfall in revenues going forward.

If they tax the working poor any more, there's no real savings as c. 90,000 of these households will already be in receipt e.g. HAP or RAS this year according to the Minister for Housing i.e. many of them literally have nothing left to give and any further reductions in their net pay will need to be subsidized by the Government, basically because of the mess they made with the property market over the past 5 years.

It does appear that property is the only thing really left to tax and tax heavily IMO.

State should be cutting spending rather than attempting to draw more blood from a stone.

PropQueries · 26-04-2021 12:43PM

timmyntc wrote: »

State should be cutting spending rather than attempting to draw more blood from a stone.

Cut where though? For example, of the 2019 c. €20 Billion welfare budget, only c. €4.5 Billion was due to all the various levels of unemployment or income supports and many of those were people just collecting their insurance i.e. PRSI payments.

So, even if the state now decides to say that PRSI is actually not insurance and is now actually a tax and removes all those supports, where will the other c. €7.5 Billion in potential required cutbacks come from? And, come from on an annual basis permanently going forward.

awec · 26-04-2021 12:44PM

PropQueries wrote: »

We may be inviting the actual Troika back in sooner than many people realise. According to the Fiscal Advisory Council:

"The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has accused the Government of failing to manage the public finances in a prudent manner. In its latest report,the council warns that Budget 2021 includes “substantial and permanent increases” in spending unrelated to the Covid-19 pandemic amounting to €5.4 billion without long-term funding."

Throw in John FitzGerald's potential estimate of a loss of c. €6 billion per annum due to Biden's tax reforms and we're talking of making permanent cutbacks of c. €12 billion per annum to whatever the Government was spending per annum pre-covid.

While it's not reported in the Irish media, some funds are already looking at shorting the debt of the EU's periphery countries.

There was a good article on it last week on Bloomberg titled "Europe’s Most Indebted Countries Aren’t Ready for Market Reality". While Michael McGrath is looking at "weaning" PUP payments off PUP recipients, the ECB and EU are already looking at weaning countries like Ireland off their supports.

Let's see if Michael McGrath is in favour of such "weaning off", once the shoe is on the other foot

I'm sure the Minister for Housing must also be included when they're looking at such a level of potential cutbacks to annual budgets going forward. I would be thinking most of his housing plans are not practicable or affordable either now or going forward IMO

Link to article on Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-24/europe-s-most-indebted-countries-aren-t-ready-for-market-reality

Can you point out where in the article you linked this is stated?

Perhaps I missed it.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Comments

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1