2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt wrote: »

I somehow think that funds will have their leases water tight so should be guaranteed income for a long time to come and will probably maintain headline rents because of it ensuring that rent will remain high and off the back of it property valuations.....

The only reason they’re currently getting the rents they are is because of long-term lease agreements with the council or HAP.

Once the state pulls in the purse strings, rents collapse.

The lease agreements the current funds have signed up for are most likely watertight but any developer who doesn’t sign up within the next 6 months will be extremely disappointed IMO

Timing belt wrote: »

how can rents collapse if long term lease agreements are in place? What you are saying is that they are guaranteed rent from the state for up to 25 years but yet you are saying rent will collapse :eek:

Market rents will collapse. The long-term lease agreements already entered into will be paid by the taxpayer through higher taxes and less local services for many years e.g. citizens shouldn’t be expecting that ambulance to arrive on time etc.

But, after c. 6 months, Paschal will pull in the purse strings and there will (should) be no more such ridiculous agreements signed.

Once the state exits the market, landlords will be left fighting over the very few tenants actually seeking rental accommodation IMO

PropQueries wrote: »

Tell that to the residents of Marianella. When did they move in again? Almost 50% there already IMO

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/residents-of-rathgar-development-engage-planner-to-fight-cairn-homes-plan-1.3737304

How do you make that out ?

According to The Times, the big economies potential grab on the profits of the multinationals is heating up:

“Rishi Sunak has enlisted America’s support to launch an international campaign to raise taxes on online companies such as Amazon that have cashed in on the coronavirus pandemic.

The chancellor plans to use the G7 summit, which Britain is hosting in June, to push for changes to global laws so he can increase taxes on internet firms. Sunak revealed he had already had talks with Janet Yellen, the US Treasury secretary.”

He also said:

“One of my priorities in the G7 this year, which I’ve already started work on, is to try and get international agreement on a new way to tax these companies,” the chancellor said. “I spend a lot of time talking to my finance minister colleagues around the world about this issue.”

When are those OECD global tax rules to be finalised? June I think.

I honestly hope it goes our way, but we should have been way better prepared for any adverse impact as it has been well flagged for the past 5 years IMO

Link to article in The Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-recruits-us-to-raise-taxes-on-internet-giants-z9qtstdln

schmittel wrote: »

This time last year we were waiting for a change a government. My thoughts on a crash, were largely based on a new Government taking a different approach, policies that were not designed to push up prices, combined with covid.

But it is clear the new Government has made more of the same mistakes and I was naive to expect otherwise. I have finally got that!

The problem is see is the state needs housing immediately. They state is unable to build housing short term to meet that need (irrespective of any current restrictions). The state needs years to build the amount of affordable and social housing it requires.
What alternative options does it have short term? Do nothing? So the state has to purchase or lease propoerty in the market. Where else can it purchase? They could CPO the 1 million + vacant units across the country.

schmittel wrote: »

To be honest, not a lot of point in trying to discuss your points seriously, if you can't take the vacancy issue seriously!

Sorry, I should have added “in my opinion”. My opinion is as valid as any other on this thread.

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough, my bad, I assumed you were being facetious and trolling, something you've been banned for before.

It's the second time you have referenced the 1m vacants:



Now I know you 're being serious, of course your opinion is as valid as any other, and I'd be very interested to discuss it sensibly?

So how are you arriving at the figure of 1m vacant properties?

I’m rounding up and making plenty of assumptions. For example, given that geodirectory relies on anpost to gather data it must be under reported. The post man servicing my area doesn’t seem capable / willing / inclined to carry out his primary task. Are we expected to rely on the same person to collect dat point s for geodirectory? In my opinion.

schmittel wrote: »

This time last year we were waiting for a change a government. My thoughts on a crash, were largely based on a new Government taking a different approach, policies that were not designed to push up prices, combined with covid.

But it is clear the new Government has made more of the same mistakes and I was naive to expect otherwise. I have finally got that!

Hopefully lessons learned, don't expect much of change from Government.
I would rather look at Construction, Supply/Demand & other related economic factors to forecast Property Market.

schmittel wrote: »

Scrapping the 4% rent increase caps in RPZs would be a good start.

scrap HAP and let people emigrate again if they cant afford the nose bleed rents here

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, that's clear if Government the usual FG or FF led flavour. However if that change of government is SF for example I think we'll see a lot of change.

So one more lesson needs to learned.

schmittel wrote: »

What's that?

Talk is cheap

Hubertj wrote: »

I believe SF are proposing to freeze rents for a number of years. I wonder what impact that might have

But maybe they won't need to. Many people are assuming that the existing level of rents can only increase basically indefinitely.

If you look at the rent index from 2000 to 2020, there's some fairly big swings. In 2007 rents weren't much higher than 2000. In 2016 they were back at 2007 levels. Any increases since 2016 can basically be put down to HAP and other state intervention IMO

If the money stops flowing from the EU, ECB and the bond markets, how much ammunition does the state have to keep rents inflated?

Rents can drop just as quickly as they rose IMO

I’m convinced the government’s actions to prop up rents will be the next joke about Paddy internationally.

Like how the Greeks are in bother financially because none of them would pay taxes.

Paddy is in bother because he remortgaged the house to pay the rents of the poor so the rich would keep voting for him.

Can anyone help me condense this a bit more?